Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nothing can sum why Russia is and will lose this war better than the fact that with there artillery and missile stockpiles quickly drying up they decided waste them with wave attacks on civilian targets in a failed attempt to break Ukrainian public resolve (when historically its always done the opposite)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Deep strike.
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1599667237937623041

This would imply it was travelling close to the airbase at ~800km/h - much faster than a Shahed-136 or any propeller-driven drone. That's subsonic jet speed, and not the speed I'd expect for a jet preparing to land.

Russian Telegram channels are claiming a repurposed (and potentially modified) Tupolev reconnaissance drone was used. I've mentioned these before - these are jets and their top speeds exceed 800km/h. Last month, and on several previous occasions, Russian Telegram channels showed wreckage allegedly belonging to these drones after various deep strikes. The wreckage had rivets indicating Soviet-era manufacture.

Engels Airbase is 600km from the nearest Ukrainian position, but the Tu-141 has a range of 1000km/h. Although an entirely new cruise missile could have been used instead, I view this as the most likely culprit - but the short time interval prior to the explosion would imply the drone has been modified to land/strike at speed rather than dropping its payload via parachute, unlike previously reported incidents.

Watch this space. It is possible that weaponised Tupolev drones are still in development/testing, and Ukraine's inventory could still number over a thousand.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine apparently took out two Russian nuclear bombers on Russian soil. Based.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1599335366992875520

An utterly clownish thing to say, even many of his own party must have had head in hands.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Low-res satellite imagery does not show obvious damage to Engels airbase: https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1599792466302971904
However, RuMOD reports that both airbases were attacked by weaponised Tupolev UAVs: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1599813464750686208
RuMOD claims both were intercepted, but that as a result of falling wreckage, two aircraft were "lightly damaged", three soldiers were killed and four were hospitalised. While the claims of interception should be taken with caution in light of the casualty report, I must admit my original analysis ignored the possibility of interception. I assumed the UAVs must have been modified to land/strike at speed, but it's possible they were just intercepted quickly, before they could begin a slower glide.

Edit: a photo from Dyagilevo shows a rough-looking fuel truck (not mentioned by RuMOD) and damage to a nearby long-range bomber. I will update this post with more photos if they are relevant to these particular attacks.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1599824970926153729
Another angle of the same bomber (damage looks more serious, atlhough anyone nearby who survived will be glad the Kh-22 wasn't detonated): https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1599835567612911616
Satellite imagery at Dyagilevo: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1599831749504434176

[Storr]

Ukraine apparently took out two Russian nuclear bombers on Russian soil. Based.

For reference, where Saratov and Ryazan are located:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1599791732995940353?s=20&t=r8uB2yH1...

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/germanys-scholz-must-avoid-dividing-080120336.html

"Germany's Scholz: We must avoid dividing world into Cold War-style blocs"

I would argue that the current situation is much worse than in the 1970s

[Torie]

https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/germanys-scholz-must-avoid-dividing-080120336.html

"Germany's Scholz: We must avoid dividing world into Cold War-style blocs"

I would argue that the current situation is much worse than in the 1970s

What is really going on in this creature's mind? That made about as much sense as our miniature schnoodle wanting to hump a horse.

We already have a bunch of blocks that don't like each other much. We have the bad boy autocratic bloc, the racist wanna be autocratic but not yet there bloc (the US recently withdrew from that bloc, but others are still in good standing), the rich nation freeloader short term gain for long term pain bloc (look in the mirror Scholz), the amoral opportunistic tribalistic bloc (India at the moment is a member in good standing), and on and on it goes.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1599838595283443712?s=20&t=_lSCCnuTWXL4I_...

[NOVA Green]

Regarding the attacks of Russian Russian Air Force bases earlier today, that this was interesting in addition to what others had posted upthread.

Bolded interesting section.

The drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, and at least one of the strikes was made with the help of special forces close to the base who helped guide the drones to the target, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to convey sensitive information.

The other explosion occurred at the Dyagilevo military base in the central city of Ryazan, about 100 miles from Moscow, according to Russia’s defense ministry. It was there that the fatalities and injuries occurred, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Also, a bit more Ukrainian trolling:

“The Earth is round — discovery made by Galileo,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote on Twitter after the strikes at Russian bases. “If something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-bases.html

[NOVA Green]

Note that there is no evidence that Western Governments supporting to Ukraine provided any satellite imagery, since this is apparently already commercially available under the right weather conditions and the the willingness to purchase such images.

Last week, Der Spiegel, the German news site, reported that the Engels-2 airfield was bustling with activity, probably in preparation for another missile attack on Ukraine, with satellite images showing rows of what appeared to be Tu-95 and T-160 long-range strategic bombers parked on the base.

Russian Mil-Bloggers still continue to be one of the last easily accessible resources for info for the average Russian regarding the "Special Operation", aka War in Ukraine, or even more specifically Invasion and Occupation of Ukrainian territory.

“According to my information, the airfield in Engels was hit by the Soviet Tu-141 Strizh UAV,” Alexander Kots, a military correspondent of the Kremlin-friendly newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, wrote on his popular Telegram channel following the Russian Defense Ministry statement.

Kots questioned how the drones could have reached the bases undetected, noting that Moscow is within the same distance.

“So it freely crossed almost 650 km over the territory of the Russian Federation,” Kots wrote. “Was stealth technology mastered in the U.S.S.R. long before it became a trend? You know, there is less than 650 km to Moscow from the Ukrainian border.”

Another Russian military blogger Dmitry Konanykhin described the strike on nuclear-capable bombers as an embarrassment. “Russia’s strategic nuclear forces can be beaten with penny drones.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/05/explosions-hit-two-bases-russia-moscow-fires-new-missile-barrage/

[DaleCooper]

Nothing can sum why Russia is and will lose this war better than the fact that with there artillery and missile stockpiles quickly drying up they decided waste them with wave attacks on civilian targets in a failed attempt to break Ukrainian public resolve (when historically its always done the opposite)

Russia has always been incredibly sadistic and bloodthirsty. This is nothing new. This war was as much about asserting their authority and murdering people as it was about stealing territory. It's a sick country.

[NOVA Green]

Convenient timing on the leak, possibly a sign that Washington is wanting to send messaging to Russia that we are doing what we saying, and saying what we are doing?

The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.

But the Himars launchers have a unique feature intended to prevent them from becoming even more potent battlefield systems. U.S. officials say the Pentagon has modified the launchers so they can’t fire long-range missiles, including the U.S.’s Army Tactical Missile System rockets, or ATACMS, which have a range of nearly 200 miles.

The previously undisclosed modifications show the lengths the Biden administration has gone to balance its support for Ukraine’s forces against the risk of escalation with Moscow. They also reflect apprehensions among administration officials that their Ukrainian partner might stop keeping its promise not to strike Russian territory with U.S.-provided weapons.

The U.S. has refrained from supplying Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles. But the modifications ensure that Ukraine couldn’t use the Himars launchers the U.S. has provided to fire ATACMS missiles if Kyiv were to acquire them from other sources, such as foreign nations that have purchased the weapons from the U.S. Nor could Ukraine use those launchers to fire other types of longer-range missiles if Kyiv somehow managed to produce or acquire them, officials say.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-altered-himars-rocket-launchers-to-keep-ukraine-from-firing-missiles-into-russia-11670214338?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[NOVA Green]

My buddy Benjamin has posted a few more geo-located photos of the alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian AFBs deep within the "Motherland"...

Don't believe this one has been posted yet here, although I believe we do have some other geo-locations posted upthread (If not can share those links as well).

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1599853896478109697?s=20&t=SRN5lIw...

[CanadianDemocrat]

Nothing can sum why Russia is and will lose this war better than the fact that with there artillery and missile stockpiles quickly drying up they decided waste them with wave attacks on civilian targets in a failed attempt to break Ukrainian public resolve (when historically its always done the opposite)

Ukrainian anti-air systems are also shooting down around 85% of Russian missiles. Western anti-air systems such as the Flakpanzer Gepard, IRIS-T and NASAMS are making a big difference for Ukraine.

Ukraine shot down 60/70 Russian missiles in the latest attack.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

Social media farming in India is cheap!

[Silent Hunter]

The Americans literally developed the B-2 to hit places like Engels-2. So, yeah.

[Woody]

Member of the Aidar Battalion:

https://twitter.com/Porter_Anderson/status/1599518456898002947
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1599490093974056961

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Amid reports of a fuel depot being struck at Kursk airbase today (much closer, but still out of HIMARS range), Engels airbase (the one where low-res satellite imagery suggested no damage) appears to have taken a hit after all. The missing plane may just have been moved, but at least one other bomber caught fire (and possibly warped).

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1600077278376906752

Edit: a better look: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1600133489294118914

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

It’s less likely that public support is shifting then it is with Musk in charge that Russian bots and trolls feel emboldened to come out

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1600049155199549440
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1600049161470197761

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1599984487760203776?cxt=HHwWgMC...
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1599984495632863232
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1599984502050213889?cxt=HHwWgsC...

[Storr]

Everyone's favorite doomer is back:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1600112329059958786?s=20&t=CfVAC5fd...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've read some analysis claiming some kind of extended range Tu-143 was used - the original range of this device was said to be 180km, but it was carrying a 100kg camera, parachutes and bulky electronics which could have been removed - and, of course, claims that some kind of new cruise missile or drone was employed. It's very hard to prove these claims false, but this image comes pretty close to it:

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1600197698057285632

The Tu-143 is about 8m long, whereas its older brother (the -141, range 1000km) is 14m long. Much larger than your average cruise missile, although apparently not a huge payload for its size.