COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Smeulders]

So the virus is apparently running amok in a place where they've been doing constant testing of the people who work there.  Just what do they expect to happen in workplaces that don't have access to that level of testing?

It is running amok in a place run by an idiot. All the testing in the world isn't going to help you if you don't take any further precautions. Hopefully other workplaces are organised in a more sensible way.

[Smeulders]

Did anyone else see the Michael Osterholm interview on Meet the Press this morning.  He’s one of the two medical experts that Chuck Todd interviewed in the first block.  I thought his interview was bizarre, because he seemed to be directly contradicting the other guest, but neither that guest nor Chuck ever pushed back at him. 

This seemed to me to be his message:
- Enhanced testing and tracing as futile at the point
- It is not possible to test any more than we are now anyway
- Social distancing restrictions will not substantially reduce infections, only “nibble at the edges”
- We cannot control the spread of the virus at all, and it will inevitably infect 60-70% of the population
- We “need a plan” to get from 5-15% infection rate to 60-70%, though he never really clarified what the basic contours of the “plan” should be

Is this a respected person?  If so, what “plan” is he talking about? 

More generally, it is striking to me that medical experts never really challenge one another in any of these interviews, even when it is obvious that they hold very different beliefs and positions.  They rarely even try to clarify their differences or the assumptions that are generating them. They all just seems to speak as if they are agreeing with each other even when it is obvious they are not.

He's very respected. Him and Marc Lipsitch at Harvard have been saying this since the beginning. The problem is, if they're wrong, then this kind of advice tends to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I am not familiar with Osterholm, but I find your characterization of Lipsitch's positions strange. He is one of the people responsible for https://covidpathforward.com/ (well worth having a look at). The "path forward" plan goes directly against most of the points Osterholm apparently makes in that interview. Maybe his position has changed in the meantime, or maybe he made some points that have been twisted to appear in support of a herd immunity strategy (he did speculate herd immunity may be reached much earlier than 60-70% infected due to network effects, which the open up, herd immunity crowd obviously liked. I haven't seen him advocate that position though).

[Beet]

Did anyone else see the Michael Osterholm interview on Meet the Press this morning.  He’s one of the two medical experts that Chuck Todd interviewed in the first block.  I thought his interview was bizarre, because he seemed to be directly contradicting the other guest, but neither that guest nor Chuck ever pushed back at him.  

This seemed to me to be his message:
- Enhanced testing and tracing as futile at the point
- It is not possible to test any more than we are now anyway
- Social distancing restrictions will not substantially reduce infections, only “nibble at the edges”
- We cannot control the spread of the virus at all, and it will inevitably infect 60-70% of the population
- We “need a plan” to get from 5-15% infection rate to 60-70%, though he never really clarified what the basic contours of the “plan” should be

Is this a respected person?  If so, what “plan” is he talking about?  

More generally, it is striking to me that medical experts never really challenge one another in any of these interviews, even when it is obvious that they hold very different beliefs and positions.  They rarely even try to clarify their differences or the assumptions that are generating them. They all just seems to speak as if they are agreeing with each other even when it is obvious they are not.

He's very respected. Him and Marc Lipsitch at Harvard have been saying this since the beginning. The problem is, if they're wrong, then this kind of advice tends to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I am not familiar with Osterholm, but I find your characterization of Lipsitch's positions strange. He is one of the people responsible for https://covidpathforward.com/ (well worth having a look at). The "path forward" plan goes directly against most of the points Osterholm apparently makes in that interview. Maybe his position has changed in the meantime, or maybe he made some points that have been twisted to appear in support of a herd immunity strategy (he did speculate herd immunity may be reached much earlier than 60-70% infected due to network effects, which the open up, herd immunity crowd obviously liked. I haven't seen him advocate that position though).

The path forward is saying that things should be done, yes, but it's short of saying this can be contained. If you look at his twitter feed, he's still talking about herd immunity thresholds and speculating about 20%-60% of the population getting infected, which is down from his earlier estimate of 40%-70%.

That being said, he does pretty strongly deny supporting herd immunity in an article on India, so perhaps I've gotten his views wrong.

[emailking]

But is he saying we should strive for herd immunity or that herd immunity is inevitable?

[Smeulders]

Did anyone else see the Michael Osterholm interview on Meet the Press this morning.  He’s one of the two medical experts that Chuck Todd interviewed in the first block.  I thought his interview was bizarre, because he seemed to be directly contradicting the other guest, but neither that guest nor Chuck ever pushed back at him.  

This seemed to me to be his message:
- Enhanced testing and tracing as futile at the point
- It is not possible to test any more than we are now anyway
- Social distancing restrictions will not substantially reduce infections, only “nibble at the edges”
- We cannot control the spread of the virus at all, and it will inevitably infect 60-70% of the population
- We “need a plan” to get from 5-15% infection rate to 60-70%, though he never really clarified what the basic contours of the “plan” should be

Is this a respected person?  If so, what “plan” is he talking about?  

More generally, it is striking to me that medical experts never really challenge one another in any of these interviews, even when it is obvious that they hold very different beliefs and positions.  They rarely even try to clarify their differences or the assumptions that are generating them. They all just seems to speak as if they are agreeing with each other even when it is obvious they are not.

He's very respected. Him and Marc Lipsitch at Harvard have been saying this since the beginning. The problem is, if they're wrong, then this kind of advice tends to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I am not familiar with Osterholm, but I find your characterization of Lipsitch's positions strange. He is one of the people responsible for https://covidpathforward.com/ (well worth having a look at). The "path forward" plan goes directly against most of the points Osterholm apparently makes in that interview. Maybe his position has changed in the meantime, or maybe he made some points that have been twisted to appear in support of a herd immunity strategy (he did speculate herd immunity may be reached much earlier than 60-70% infected due to network effects, which the open up, herd immunity crowd obviously liked. I haven't seen him advocate that position though).

The path forward is saying that things should be done, yes, but it's short of saying this can be contained. If you look at his twitter feed, he's still talking about herd immunity thresholds and speculating about 20%-60% of the population getting infected, which is down from his earlier estimate of 40%-70%.

That being said, he does pretty strongly deny supporting herd immunity in an article on India, so perhaps I've gotten his views wrong.

You are talking about this tweet?
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258831576416374784
I read this differently from you. Saying he believes X to Y% infected before the herd immunity threshold is different from X to Y% will get infected. The first is in the absence of measures stopping the pandemic (vaccination, lockdowns, test and trace), the second suggest that even with these measures that many people will be infected.

@Emailking: I believe he is saying neither of the two.

[T'Chenka]

But is he saying we should strive for herd immunity or that herd immunity is inevitable?

[jimrtex]

What is a "home open"?

It is when you sell your house and have a 1-2 hour inspection period for potential buyers.

Oh, like an "open house"

If it it were spelled upside down, it would be "esnoy uedo" ua

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Orange county Mayor Demings just finished up a press conference, he said most likely the mandatory mask rules will probably be in effect for the remainder of the year

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/davidlparsons/status/1258988672084373505?s=21

The "NO MASKS ALLOWED" is just baffling to me. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

The "NO MASKS ALLOWED" is just baffling to me.  

You want to try "Baffling", try this version of events:

Protests in Melbourne, Victoria.

Corona-virus lockdowns, No 5G Rollout and No Forced Vaccinations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB_5eQZ1Uy0

I don't think they were saying that 5G causes Corona-virus. I think they were arguing for the Government to not force things upon them including the Mobile App that the Government wants everyone to download.

[Tintrlvr]

New York had an excellent reporting day today. At 1,660 new cases, it's the first day below 2,000 new cases since March 19, and a new low since March in the positives rate as well at 7.7% (down from 7.8% yesterday). And the number of deaths fell to 162, the first day below 200 deaths since March 27.

[Grassroots]

The "NO MASKS ALLOWED" is just baffling to me.  

I think they were arguing for the Government to not force things upon them including the Mobile App that the Government wants everyone to download.

And I would have to agree. Forced apps is a major red flag.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/davidlparsons/status/1258988672084373505?s=21

The "NO MASKS ALLOWED" is just baffling to me. 

Next, it'll be "NO VACCINATED ALLOWED", where they give you mandatory anti-body tests to make sure you aren't vaccinated before you can enter the store. 'Murica!

[soundchaser]

Louisiana is moving to Phase I on Friday. Edwards giving a press conference now and being very forthcoming and realistic about the prospects going forward. I continue to be extremely thankful that he won and Rispone didn’t.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/davidlparsons/status/1258988672084373505?s=21

Best electric chair ever.

Yup! Good enough for gangster Lepke Buchalter and serial killer Ted Bundy.

[pbrower2a]

I wear a mask when going to the transaction windows of fast-food places.  If people taking the cash or handing you fast food are wearing masks, then so should you.

[The Dowager Mod]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

[Koharu]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

It also looks as if the reporter he told to ask China is Asian American? So her trying to get him to answer why he told her that specifically is a very important question.

[The Dowager Mod]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

It also looks as if the reporter he told to ask China is Asian American? So her trying to get him to answer why he told her that specifically is a very important question.

Yes, it was Weijia Jiang. she works for CBS and was raised in WV.

[AZDem]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

It also looks as if the reporter he told to ask China is Asian American? So her trying to get him to answer why he told her that specifically is a very important question.

Yes she is Asian American. It's Weijia Jiang from CBS news.

He's always like this to her. He argued and yelled at her in a press conference 2 or 3 weeks ago as well.

This man is nothing but human scum and the sooner we get rid of him and this administration, the better.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This exchange was also gold:

Trump spent Mother’s Day sending conspiratorial tweets about his predecessor. In one tweet he accused Obama of committing the “biggest political crime in American history, by far!”

Asked to name the crime he is accusing Obama of committing, Trump replied: “Obamagate. it’s been going on for a long time it’s been going on before I even got elected.”

The reporter followed up: but what is the crime you’re accusing him of?

“You know what the crime is,” Trump says.

I guess "you know what the crime is" is the Trumpian code for "I just made that up, okay? Now shut the f**k up."

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1259957359532740609

Although Monday numbers are usually lower, these are apparently the best since late March.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1259957359532740609

Although Monday numbers are usually lower, these are apparently the best since late March.

Sunday and Monday numbers are always lower, but that doesn't stop us from being able to compare to previous Sundays and Mondays.  And, by that standard, we're heading in the right direction.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

It also looks as if the reporter he told to ask China is Asian American? So her trying to get him to answer why he told her that specifically is a very important question.

Yes, it was Weijia Jiang. she works for CBS and was raised in WV.

Ah, brilliant PR, Mr. President!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today just had by far the most tests of any day so far. Yet still, Worldometers may show only about 17,000 new cases today, if that. Percentage of positive cases tumbled to about 4.5% today.