Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Rowan]

SUSA Virginia Governor

Dem Primary
McAuliffe 37%
Deeds 26%
Moran 22%

General Election Matchups
McDonnell 46%
McAuliffe 40%

McDonnell 46%
Deeds 40%

McDonnell 47%
Moran 37%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51ed4b5b-05e4-4828-a866-eee035fb91dd

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

[Rowan]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

PPP says pretty much that:

A pretty clear divide is emerging. Among the frequent primary voters Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and Creigh Deeds are basically in a three way statistical tie based on the interviews conducted so far. But among the more casual primary voters who did not find Webb-Miller compelling enough to head to the polls but who are intending to come out this time McAuliffe has a substantial lead.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

[Lunar]

SUSA Virginia Governor

Dem Primary
McAuliffe 37%
Deeds 26%
Moran 22%

General Election Matchups
McDonnell 46%
McAuliffe 40%

McDonnell 46%
Deeds 40%

McDonnell 47%
Moran 37%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51ed4b5b-05e4-4828-a866-eee035fb91dd

If Deeds can keep up his fundraising arm and the momentum, this might be a good upset.

Another notable fact is that Deeds is polling just as well as Terry against McDonnell. 

Moran has gone hard-negative against Terry in his ads...good news for Deeds on that front as well.

Terry is still the frontrunner IMO.  When's the primary again?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That being said, turnout will be abysmal regardless. Webb-Miller was about 150,000 voters. The 2005 Lt. Governor primary was around 115,000. At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

Really?  I'm expecting somewhere between 300,000-400,000.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

Really?  I'm expecting somewhere between 300,000-400,000.

Turnout that high would be a guaranteed McAuliffe victory. I would expect it to fall somewhere in between 150,000 and 250,000 (at the extreme high end).

[Rowan]

R2K/KOS VA-GOV

Dem Primary
McAuliffe 36%
Moran 22%
Deeds 13%

General Election Matchups
McDonnell 44%
McAuliffe 34%

McDonnell 42%
Moran 35%

McDonnell 45%
Deeds 32%

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/5/21/13304/2537

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I would expect it to fall somewhere in between 150,000 and 250,000 (at the extreme high end).

Wow.  I'm hoping for very low turnout, because that gives Deeds a better chance to win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Washington Post endorses Creigh Deeds

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is huge, fantastic news.

[Lunar]

Huge for Deeds indeed.

WaPo gets it.

[The Mikado]

It's a shame, I think that Brian Moran would be a spectacular governor.

If we can't have him, though, I'd be happy to take the other reasonable candidate.  Don't know too much about Deeds, but he has to be better than...yeah.

BTW, just my personal prediction: McDonnell wins in Nov.  Obviously not what I want, but...

[Lunar]

I've suggested it before, but genuine liberals don't win Virginia governor's races, at least they have't the last twenty+ years.

Moran is a comically incompetent campaigner anyway.  I do appreciate him going hard-negative on Terry though, even if Joe Trippi just doesn't get it.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

BTW, just my personal prediction: McDonnell wins in Nov.  Obviously not what I want, but...

If Deeds wins the nomination, then we have a good shot of winning.  If Moran wins, it's about 40%.  If McAuliffe wins, then it's closer to 15%.

[Lunar]

I heavily disagree with that assessment.  Terry is not the most unelectable candidate.  He is far more politically talented than Moran, who has run, let's face it, a loser campaign ran by a veteran who is an expert in losing competitive races, and Terry will have access to ten times as much money.  Terry's campaign has been perfect to a T thus far, even if I personally detest him and would never vote for him to be my govenror I can admit that.  I suspect McDonnell most wants to face Moran.

Sure, if the election were limited to politicos, Terry would be toast.  But a large percentage of the electorate knows as little about him as they know about the other candidates.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I heavily disagree with that assessment.  Terry is not the most unelectable candidate.  He is far more politically talented than Moran, who has run, let's face it, a loser campaign ran by a veteran who is an expert in losing competitive races, and Terry will have access to ten times as much money.  Terry's campaign has been perfect to a T thus far, even if I personally detest him and would never vote for him to be my govenror I can admit that.  I suspect McDonnell most wants to face Moran.

Sure, if the election were limited to politicos, Terry would be toast.  But a large percentage of the electorate knows as little about him as they know about the other candidates.

On second thought, you're right.  I still think Deeds is the only candidate with a better than 50% chance of winning, but McAuliffe has run a far better campaign than Moran has.

[Lunar]

At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

Really?  I'm expecting somewhere between 300,000-400,000.

Turnout that high would be a guaranteed McAuliffe victory. I would expect it to fall somewhere in between 150,000 and 250,000 (at the extreme high end).

I'd agree with that assessment.

I have no idea whether or not McAuliffe can drag out the extra hundred thow to the polls that he maybe needs.  Wouldn't surprise me, honestly.

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP put out a new primary poll:

Terry McAuliffe - 29 (30)
Creigh Deeds - 20 (14)
Brian Moran - 20 (20)

And for Lt. Governor:

Jody Wagner - 21 (18)
Mike Signer - 11 (7)

It would appear that between this new round of polling and the WaPo endorsement, the momentum is Deeds', although it's not clear if it'll be enough to carry him to victory.

[Verily]

Huge for Deeds indeed.

WaPo gets it.

Nah, it's huge for McAuliffe. Probably does more for him than endorsing McAuliffe would have. The politically highly informed people the WaPo caters most to are pretty opposed to McAuliffe from the beginning, and right now they're mostly supporting Moran. But if a bunch of them switch from Moran to Deeds as a result of this endorsement, Moran, who is the only candidate polling competitively with McAuliffe, will fall back, with essentially no damage to McAuliffe's own numbers (since few of his voters read/care about the WaPo). So what might have been a 40-35-25 race (McAuliffe-Moran-Deeds) might become more like a 40-30-30 race (and those are pretty pessimistic numbers for McAuliffe).

Maybe it would have been better for McAuliffe to be endorsed by the WaPo, but I suspect most of its readers would have just ignored the endorsement and voted for Moran anyway.

[Verily]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

You'd be stupid.

[Lunar]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

Well obviously. But the more Independents show up the better it is for Deeds.