Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lt. Governor primary, since I'm the only one interested in that:

Jody Wagner - 18 (21)
Mike Signer - 7 (4)
Jon Bowerbank - 6 (4)

Poor Jon Bowerbank, he can't catch a break.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Over my dead body.

PUMA!!!!

I'll probably support him in the GE, but not before then.

Well, yes, that's what I meant. I still support Moran until he loses.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alexandria municipal elections were today. Unopposed D mayor, 5 incumbent and 1 open D council seats up. Looks like a Republican and an Independent won and two incumbent Ds lost, so there's some (small) good news for the GOP.

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/user/DeedsforVirginia

Deeds comes out with TWO ads

[Rowan]

Moran's poll, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shows McAuliffe with 31 percent; Moran, 29 percent; and Deeds, 18 percent. The survey was conducted from April 30 to May 3. Based on interviews with 606 likely Democratic primary voters, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/GUBS06_20090505-222609/265968/

[Frodo]

I might need to consider switching my support to Brian Moran, who seems to stands the best chance of beating McAuliffe... 

[HappyWarrior]

Moran really needs to pull this out.  McAullife will lose this race.  By the way, when is the actual primary?

[Rowan]

Moran really needs to pull this out.  McAullife will lose this race.  By the way, when is the actual primary?

June 9.

[Brittain33]

Alexandria municipal elections were today. Unopposed D mayor, 5 incumbent and 1 open D council seats up. Looks like a Republican and an Independent won and two incumbent Ds lost, so there's some (small) good news for the GOP.

Weren't there a couple of special elections in that part of the state recently where Democratic turnout was abysmal and the Republican squeaked in?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I might need to consider switching my support to Brian Moran, who seems to stands the best chance of beating McAuliffe... 

Same.  My parents and uncle have promised to vote for the candidate I endorse in the primary, so I may switch to Moran if it looks like he has chance to win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alexandria municipal elections were today. Unopposed D mayor, 5 incumbent and 1 open D council seats up. Looks like a Republican and an Independent won and two incumbent Ds lost, so there's some (small) good news for the GOP.

Weren't there a couple of special elections in that part of the state recently where Democratic turnout was abysmal and the Republican squeaked in?

Just one -- a Board of Supervisors seat in Fairfax that a Republican won 51-49. The other two (Brian Moran's House seat and the chairmanship of the Fairfax BoS vacated by Gerry Connolly) were held by Dems, barely.

[Brittain33]

Just one -- a Board of Supervisors seat in Fairfax that a Republican won 51-49. The other two (Brian Moran's House seat and the chairmanship of the Fairfax BoS vacated by Gerry Connolly) were held by Dems, barely.

Thanks. The House result was a shock for its closeness, IIRC.

[Eraserhead]

Moran really needs to pull this out.  McAullife will lose this race.  By the way, when is the actual primary?

June 9.

Hmm, didn't even realize it was that soon. Terry will probably pull it off. Sucks.

[Brittain33]

Hmm, didn't even realize it was that soon. Terry will probably pull it off. Sucks.

Isn't it strange? In 2001 and 2005 it was so important for the Democrats to pick the perfect candidate who would do everything right, as needed to win in Virginia... and now it's 2009 and Terry McAuliffe could become the nominee? I don't understand that state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hmm, didn't even realize it was that soon. Terry will probably pull it off. Sucks.

Isn't it strange? In 2001 and 2005 it was so important for the Democrats to pick the perfect candidate who would do everything right, as needed to win in Virginia... and now it's 2009 and Terry McAuliffe could become the nominee? I don't understand that state.

I think there are several factors in play here. First, there's no clear successor to the incumbent Governor. In 2005, Kaine was the natural successor to Warner as his Lt. Governor. Warner himself was the most viable candidate in 2001, having run statewide before and been the chairman of the state Democratic Party. Now we really don't have anyone of note in the state -- Warner's in the Senate, the AG and LG seats are held by Republicans, and no sitting Congressman is going to give up a seat for four years in the governor's mansion.

Second, there's the fact that Virginia has no campaign contribution limits, allowing Terry to pull out his rolodex and get the checks flowing. Neither Moran nor Deeds can compete on a fundraising level.

Third, there's the fact that Terry, really, has run a better campaign than Moran. Moran's campaign has been terrible, consultant-laden drivel based on swatting at Terry every chance he gets. It's been pretty pathetic. Terry's actually had the balls to travel throughout Virginia and face the voters.

Now, I have to admit, despite being a Deeds supporter, I've been contemplating voting for Moran if it ends up being close, but Moran's campaign has turned me off so much that I'm voting for Deeds regardless. So I'm not quite sure if Moran would actually be a better candidate than Terry in the general at this point.

[Lunar]

Terry McAuliffe is inherently a controversial political figure, despite actually being one of the most insanely positive people you'll ever meet in your entire life.  Democratic activists that I've talked to who are not part of the Clinton faction, tend to passionately hate him. He introduced new dynamics into the race that, to my knowledge, have never been replicated races nationwide before.   I have no idea what the general election implications are of him winning or losing a competitive primary are.  Hell, I don't even now what kind of governor he'd be.



Is there a historical equivalent at all?

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbrhDvKk1zk

his first ad is up.  note title of post

[Smash255]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbrhDvKk1zk

his first ad is up.  note title of post

The suburban middle class guy isn't running this ad in suburban "Fake Virginia"

[marvelrobbins]

Terry McAuliffe is inherently a controversial political figure, despite actually being one of the most insanely positive people you'll ever meet in your entire life.  Democratic activists that I've talked to who are not part of the Clinton faction, tend to passionately hate him. He introduced new dynamics into the race that, to my knowledge, have never been replicated races nationwide before.   I have no idea what the general election implications are of him winning or losing a competitive primary are.  Hell, I don't even now what kind of governor he'd be.



Is there a historical equivalent at all?

Mcauliffe Is a born loser.He wins the primary he loses the election.The question Is will Obama do anything to campagin for him.

[Meeker]

SEIU endorsed McAuliffe today. He looks more and more like the front runner everyday.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jon Bowerbank is the third Lt. Governor candidate to drop out of the race, so it's gone from a 5-candidate Democratic primary to 2.

[HappyWarrior]

Who is left and can you explain their positions to me?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Who is left and can you explain their positions to me?

I've been keeping track of the candidates in the original post of this thread. Jody Wagner is running a more mainstream, center-left campaign, whereas Mike Signer is running as a progressive. But really, the only issue they've had a significant disagreement on lately is EFCA: Wagner supports the status quo in Virginia, Signer has been vocally supportive of EFCA. (Not that it would seem to matter what the Lt. Governor of Virginia thinks about federal legislation, but whatever...) Wagner is the establishment candidate, having gotten a lot of endorsements from the political hierarchy in Virginia. Signer is running the outsider/insurgent campaign. I'm voting for Wagner, although I think they'd both be good candidates in the general; however, I'm skeptical whether either can actually beat Bolling in November.

[HappyWarrior]

Signer endorsed.  EFCA is a really important thing to me.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

GOP nominates a nutter for the 99th House of Delegates district:

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