Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

Deeds is a bit painful to watch.  I can see his mind clicking at a high speed, but the words don't come out at the proper speed.  I remember being in high school debate in seven years ago, and being like that.  The ideas would be there when I started, but I would still lose more than I won as they came out poorly.


these dudes that Politico has partnered with have asked pretty good questions.

The two ones they continue to ask are:

1) How are you going to improve infrastructure in Northern Virginia and [emphasis] how you're going to pay for it
2) How would you respond if President Barack Obama *personally* called you and asked you to store Guantanamo detainees in Virginia?


Maybe they're not pretty good questions so much as questions that a Democratic primary candidate can't honestly answer.

[Eraserhead]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

I wish, bro. Anyway, I would have pegged you as a probable Deeds supporter.

No, maybe if Deeds did'nt support the death penalty.  However I can not support him with his stance on that issue.  Also considering ben's man-crush on him .  Why do you think I'd be a Deeds supporter?

You seem kind of conservative for a Democrat. Anyway, Deeds supporting the death penalty doesn't bother me. I support it too, sort of.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

ALL of the candidates running for governor support the death penalty.

I can't figure out Terry.

By that, I mean his depth.  He seems to have the best grasp of the issues.  But he also seems to have the best grasp about how to sell these issues to someone ignorant on the race.  Does that indicate that he's intelligent?  Could that intelligence translate into governance?  He's correcting the interviewer on dates and facts, he certainly seems to have a better memory of any candidate I've seen, or at least the one who's the most interested in flouting it...he's at least the most unquestionably fast-talking one I've seen.

I suspect not he'll have difficulties implementing his ideas.  One example, he has to work with the legislature, who will be far less be willing to buy his used cars.  He cites his ability to create jobs that other candidate cannot by convincing overseas companies to invest in Virgnia...through working the state legislature.

So it's not just me that thinks he sounds like a used car salesman.

Aside from that, my problem with him is that his response to everything is "we gotta create JOBS!" without any real indication of how.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He's taking on Deeds on gay rights and gun control now.

Yeah, we just got a flyer from Moran about the NRA supporting Deeds over McDonnell.

[Lunar]

Suffolk and R2k both have polls out today showing Deeds ahead.

Hopefully Moran doesn't take everyone else down with him, even if his hard-negative stuff works and he wins the nomination...

[Rowan]

R2K/KOS VA-Gov

Deeds 30%
Moran 27%
McAuliffe 26%

McDonnell 46%
Deeds 34%

McDonnell 46%
McAuliffe 33%

McDonnell 43%
Moran 35%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/3/VA/307

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Suffolk and R2k both have polls out today showing Deeds ahead.

Hopefully Moran doesn't take everyone else down with him, even if his hard-negative stuff works and he wins the nomination...

I doubt he will.  Moran's attacks are aimed at getting NOVA voters in the primaries; most of whom will stick with the Democrats in the GE.  This stuff, if it spreads, would probably help Deeds in the rest of Virginia.

[Eraserhead]

R2K/KOS VA-Gov

Deeds 30%
Moran 27%
McAuliffe 26%

McDonnell 46%
Deeds 34%

McDonnell 46%
McAuliffe 33%

McDonnell 43%
Moran 35%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/3/VA/307

McAuliffe in third... cool.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds in first... even cooler.

[Rowan]

It's all within the margin of error. How fun! I love divisive primaries!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's all within the margin of error.

True, but a couple of months ago, Deeds trailed by 7%.  Now he's ahead, albeit within the margin of error.  It shows a huge improvement on his part, and a collapse on McAuliffe's part.

[Rowan]

If McAuliffe can turn out blacks, he'll win. If he doesn't, he'll lose. It's as simple as that(okay, well maybe not that simple, but it's a huge part).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's all within the margin of error. How fun! I love divisive primaries!

The only divisive result would be McAuliffe winning. He has high unfavorable ratings from Democrats, which could lead to a significant number of Democrats sitting out the election. Moran probably can't win anyway, he's not the right statewide candidate for Virginia.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's all within the margin of error. How fun! I love divisive primaries!

The only divisive result would be McAuliffe winning. He has high unfavorable ratings from Democrats, which could lead to a significant number of Democrats sitting out the election. Moran probably can't win anyway, he's not the right statewide candidate for Virginia.

Actually, according to the Kos poll, all three candidates have virtually the same Favorables/Unfavorables.

[Badger]

It's all within the margin of error. How fun! I love divisive primaries!

The only divisive result would be McAuliffe winning. He has high unfavorable ratings from Democrats, which could lead to a significant number of Democrats sitting out the election. Moran probably can't win anyway, he's not the right statewide candidate for Virginia.

Actually, according to the Kos poll, all three candidates have virtually the same Favorables/Unfavorables.

Yeah, but Deeds can recover support he's lost from this divisive primary easier than Moran or Mac. Moran and McAuliffe's supporters tend more from the Democrat base which will be likely to fall in line behind Deeds by November. Deeds has the best chance by far of gaining and holding moderate/conservative and white rural support.

Put another way, who here doesn't think McDonnell is rooting for anyone but Deeds to win the primary (not that he's necessarily shaking in his boots over a rematch with Deeds, but he knows it'd be his toughest challenger by far).

[Lunar]

I must say, I'm massively disappointed in Governor Schweitzer, head of the Democrat's Governors Association or whatever, endorsing Terry today.  Super lame, especially considering that Schweitzer has more in common ideologically with a rural Democrat like Deeds.

I really liked Schweitzer, now I'm neutral

[Landslide Lyndon]

I must say, I'm massively disappointed in Governor Schweitzer, head of the Democrat's Governors Association or whatever, endorsing Terry today.  Super lame, especially considering that Schweitzer has more in common ideologically with a rural Democrat like Deeds.

I really liked Schweitzer, now I'm neutral

I was at the live Q&A Chris Cillizza held today at the Washington Post site. He was asked about that endorsement and his response was that he had absolutely no clue as to why Schweitzer made that move.
Who knows what's up here.

[Lunar]

It's obvious, ain't it?  Terry has hella national connections and Schweitzer is ambitious.  Terry's backing could jumpstart a presidential campaign from a nobody to a second-tier candidate overnight

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's obvious, ain't it?  Terry has hella national connections and Schweitzer is ambitious.  Terry's backing could jumpstart a presidential campaign from a nobody to a second-tier candidate overnight

But he is also the DGA chair. And losing a swing state governorship under his watch isn't going to exactly endear him among the Democratic establishment. Especially now that Obama controls it, not the Clintons.

[Nhoj]

It's obvious, ain't it?  Terry has hella national connections and Schweitzer is ambitious.  Terry's backing could jumpstart a presidential campaign from a nobody to a second-tier candidate overnight

But he is also the DGA chair. And losing a swing state governorship under his watch isn't going to exactly endear him among the Democratic establishment. Especially now that Obama controls it, not the Clintons.

wasnt Schweitzer a obama supporter in the primaries anyways? i think his endorsing terry probably has alot to do with terry promising to raise alot of money for governors or something like that.

[Lunar]

http://twitter.com/CreighDeeds

"Well I guess Terry has a leg up in the Montana precincts"

[Kaine for Senate '18]

http://twitter.com/CreighDeeds

"Well I guess Terry has a leg up in the Montana precincts"

Awesome.

Schweitzer went from FF to HP.  It's pathetic, and it ignores the situation in Virginia.

[Meeker]

http://twitter.com/CreighDeeds

"Well I guess Terry has a leg up in the Montana precincts"

Awesome.

Schweitzer went from FF to HP.  It's pathetic, and it ignores the situation in Virginia.

So you're entire opinion of a man is based upon his relationship to Creigh Deeds? Wow.

You're reaching Winfield levels, ben.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Glorious Prophet and Bringer of the Truth, Nate Silver, has a great and very encouraging post up:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/mcauliffe-virginia-dean-iowa.html

Basically pointing out that McAuliffe's polling is following a similar to pattern to Howard Dean's in Iowa.

[Lunar]

I've already accused him of being a Deeds version of winfield a page or two back myself, but in his defense, it seems like sort of a betrayal of both Schweitzer's job as DGA (getting Democratic governors elected) and Schweitzer's pro-gun, folksy beliefs in order to score personal political points.  My opinion of Rendell was unaffected (Rendell endorsed Terry simultaneously with Schweitzer) because he was already a Clinton hack who has a lot in common with Terry both politically and ideologically.  

If Obama endorsed Roland Burris for reelection, I'd be upset because he is supposed to be better than that and it doesn't make sense in the larger scheme of things either, as the guy would  be toast in the general election.