Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

So, Deeds leads in a big, real poll, and Moran leads in an internal poll with no other data.  I wonder which poll is more correct?

[Rowan]

SurveyUSA says Ben needs to chill out.

McAuliffe 35%
Deeds 29%
Moran 26%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66070492-73e7-410b-9c82-4efd09c81e7c

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The poll is way off.  McAuliffe winning gun owners, and people who regularly attend church?  No way that happens.  These numbers are way off.

[Lunar]

Ben...you said you'd tone it down?


Terry's performing better among people who don't own a gun as well.  Best not to stare too hard at a crosstabs of a poll that in total contains 517 people.

[Nhoj]

SurveyUSA says Ben needs to chill out.

McAuliffe 35%
Deeds 29%
Moran 26%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66070492-73e7-410b-9c82-4efd09c81e7c

i believe terry is down from 37% in the previous poll and deeds is up from 26% and moran up from 22% so the trends are still in place. also notice deeds numbers against McDonnell.

[Eraserhead]

wow, a released internal poll with no additional information (sample size, date conducted) comes out showing the candidate that conducted it ahead that sort of blunts the recent slate of bad polling that's come out against said candidate, I can hardly believe it

Even if you discount Moran's number, it's interesting to see Deeds "leading" McAuliffe again.

[Eraserhead]

In the general Deeds is statistically tied with McDonnell, the other two get smacked down.

[Eraserhead]

I'd gladly take Deeds over McAuliffe and I'll be excited if he wins. Moran would make the best governor though, imo.

why do you care who would make the best governor?

Because I actually care about some things.

[Verily]

The poll is way off.  McAuliffe winning gun owners, and people who regularly attend church?  No way that happens.  These numbers are way off.

"Regularly attend church", voting in a Democratic primary in Virginia... sounds like blacks to me. Yes, McAuliffe should win them quite handily.

[Dan the Roman]

If Deeds wins the primary, he is going to come out of it with massive underdog momentum, and McDonnell as the strong favorite is going to get labeled the insider and a pseudo-incumbent. He will have money, but it looks like a very bad dynamic for him.

[Lunar]

The NRA endorsed Deeds over McDonnell in the Attorney General's race in 2005, where Deeds lost a squeaker < 400 votes.  Would be interesting if they did it again, I suspect not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tweed has a good point about a Deeds' victory, but an annoying kid on an internet message board isn't enough reason to doom a state to McAuliffe or McDonnell. Deeds is our most likely salvation.

[Lunar]

Let's hope PPP is right.

                                                                         Mo    Mc    Craaaaaaaaaay Daaaeds
Public Policy Polling   June 2, 2009   +/- 4.1%   22%   24%   27%
Public Policy Polling   May 22, 2009  +/- 3.9%   20%   29%   20%
Public Policy Polling   May 5, 2009    +/- 4.1%   20%   30%   14%
Public Policy Polling   Marc 31, 2009 +/- 3.6%   22%   19%   15%
Public Policy Polling   March 3, 2009 +/- 3.9%   19%   21%   14%
Public Policy Polling   Febru 3, 2009   +/- 3.2%  18%   18%   11%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PPP was arguably the best pollster in the Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary.

[Rowan]

PPP was arguably the best pollster in the Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary.

Except for the disastrous Pennsylvania poll.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The NRA endorsed Deeds over McConnell in the Attorney General's race in 2005, where Deeds lost a squeaker < 400 votes.  Would be interesting if they did it again, I suspect not.

They may stay neutral.  As long as they don't actively endorse McDonnell, it'll be fine.

[Lief 🗽]

So I probably support Deeds at this point, and I think he should win (though the primary is going to be low turnout and he probably has the worst organization of the three), but I'm kind of dreading Ben's reaction to his victory. The dude is leading by the margin of error in a few polls and the kid is practically ruining his pants in excitement.

[HappyWarrior]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

[Eraserhead]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

I wish, bro. Anyway, I would have pegged you as a probable Deeds supporter.

[Lunar]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

Are you joking?

Moran's campaign has gone hard-negative in its advertising lately because it's in a state of desperation

[Eraserhead]

The fact is that if Moran wasn't in this thing, McAuliffe would be wiping the floor with Deeds. He's doing a kamikaze for the good of the Commonwealth. He deserves a pat on the back for that.

[HappyWarrior]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

I wish, bro. Anyway, I would have pegged you as a probable Deeds supporter.

No, maybe if Deeds did'nt support the death penalty.  However I can not support him with his stance on that issue.  Also considering ben's man-crush on him .  Why do you think I'd be a Deeds supporter?

[Lunar]

Politico...err... POLITICO, has the picture-headline story on Moran today


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23302.html


He's taking on Deeds on gay rights and gun control now.


Brian Moran if he wins, will be more unelectable than Terry in the general.

[Lunar]

the YouTube video in the article shows Deeds fairly fumbling....  I'll watch a bit before I go to sleep

I think the positions one advocates in this little-watched debate have a far more of an impact for oppo research in the general than shifting momentum to oneself...

[Lunar]

I can't figure out Terry.

By that, I mean his depth.  He seems to have the best grasp of the issues.  But he also seems to have the best grasp about how to sell these issues to someone ignorant on the race.  Does that indicate that he's intelligent?  Could that intelligence translate into governance?  He's correcting the interviewer on dates and facts, he certainly seems to have a better memory of any candidate I've seen, or at least the one who's the most interested in flouting it...he's at least the most unquestionably fast-talking one I've seen.

I suspect not he'll have difficulties implementing his ideas.  One example, he has to work with the legislature, who will be far less be willing to buy his used cars.  He cites his ability to create jobs that other candidate cannot by convincing overseas companies to invest in Virgnia...through working the state legislature.

mmmm

more later