Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Rowan]

Well,  it was commissioned by  WJLA-TV, based out of Arlington.  Maybe they just wanted to find out how people in their Virginian media market voted so they knew how to slant the news

kinda small sample size too, right?

On the face of things, it's ok...2000 polled, 570 likely voters... but that only means, what, 350 or so for the Democratic primary?  Ish?  Even that might be sketch, I'm not sure if more than 25% of total adults are really going to turn out for an off-year primary

Seems like an awk poll overall.

It was 570 Likely Democratic Primary Voters.

[Holmes]

omg

McAuliffe is endorsed by a union whose name begins with 32BJ..!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

[Lunar]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

Deeds is winning in a high-turnout poll?  Interesting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

Deeds is winning in a high-turnout poll?  Interesting.

Maybe that Washington Post endorsement meant something after all.

[Tender Branson]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

The NoVa breakdown is comparable with SUSA's findings, allthough I think PPP is including more counties than SUSA.

"He has gone from 11% in northern Virginia to 23%. With 30% of the primary electorate coming from that region that alone accounts for more than half of his jump from 20 to 27%."

Should become interesting. Hopefully Terry implodes further ...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

Not quite, although I yelled during class.  This is great, amazing, awesome news.  Deeds will win this thing; his momentum is building.

[Meeker]

Eh. McAuliffe is blasting the NoVA airwaves all week, has the better turnout machine, and I suspect has one or two tricks still left up his sleeve.

I'm less confident then I was yesterday, but I still think McAuliffe will win. Ask me again on Friday though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Eh. McAuliffe is blasting the NoVA airwaves all week, has the better turnout machine, and I suspect has one or two tricks still left up his sleeve.

I'm less confident then I was yesterday, but I still think McAuliffe will win. Ask me again on Friday though.

I stand by my prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

[Meeker]

Ben, you think Deeds is going to win? Huh, hadn't heard you mention that before.

[Lunar]

MAYBE YOU DIDN'T SEE THIS POST THEN WHEN HE DENIED DEEDS HAD A CHANCE:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87990.msg2015913#msg2015913

maybe you should cut your bite, read the insight, cut your sarcasm and don't have a spasm as you stare across that analytical chasm

That's all I got.

[Rowan]

Safe R.

[Dan the Roman]

Safe R.

With Moran: Likely R
With Deeds: Lean R
With McAuliffe: Likely R

I tend to think the main issue will be the size of the loss. That said McAuliffe is a strong campaigner and an excellent fundraiser. McDonnell is other than Gilmore probably the most Conservative figure the GOP has ever run for Governor, and we saw what happened to Gilmore last year.

That said I expect the GOP wins the GOV and LT. Gov races and the Democrats win AG.

[Rowan]

But McDonnell is much much much more popular than Gilmore. It's not even close.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Safe R.

With Moran: Likely R
With Deeds: Lean R
With McAuliffe: Likely R

I tend to think the main issue will be the size of the loss. That said McAuliffe is a strong campaigner and an excellent fundraiser. McDonnell is other than Gilmore probably the most Conservative figure the GOP has ever run for Governor, and we saw what happened to Gilmore last year.

It depends on what strain of conservatism you're looking for. Consider the last few nominees for governor. George Allen and Jerry Kilgore ran on social issues -- Allen promised to end parole (I'm assuming this was a big thing, anyway; he used it in virtually every radio ad of his I heard in 2006), and Kilgore ran on the death penalty (or something like that -- remember the "Kaine wouldn't sentence Hitler to death" ads?). Jim Gilmore and Earley ran on taxes -- Gilmore promised to end the car tax, and Mark Earley demanded that Warner sign a "no new tax" pledge, which Warner would not do.

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Yes, that's what I've been expecting for a while now. Also, the Republicans hold the House of Delegates.

[© tweed]

as a human being, I obviously hate McAuliffe, but I also don't much want constine to strut around here jerking off for the next five months, so I'm a bit torn now that it appears as if Moran will finish third.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

but I also don't much want constine to strut around here jerking off for the next five months

I plan on bragging for the first couple of days, and then settling down.  As it is, I haven't performed mindless hackery.

[Lunar]

Dude, you've been about the same as Winfield on threads about Romney.  It's been a bit heavy.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Dude, you've been about the same as Winfield on threads about Romney.  It's been a bit heavy.

Really?  Mindless hackery, like Winfield?  I'll try to tone it down, then.

[Eraserhead]

I'd gladly take Deeds over McAuliffe and I'll be excited if he wins. Moran would make the best governor though, imo.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Latest NoVA/SUSA poll (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties):

Moran: 43%
McAuliffe: 27%
Deeds: 20%

2,000 adults from the 4 counties were interviewed 05/29/09 through 05/31/09. Of them, 1,743 were registered to vote. Of them, 570 told SurveyUSA they were likely to vote in next Tuesday's primary. In SurveyUSA's most recent statewide survey of Virginia, this region made up 28% of the state's likely voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=449f08ce-6258-4086-93e7-c34e580e5572

I hadn't noticed until now, but they left out Alexandria.

[Eraserhead]

Wow. Cross your fingers, fellows. We might just have a three-way barn burner on our hands after all. Obviously, we should note that the poll was commissioned by Moran's peeps though...

Moran 29%
Deeds 27%
McAuliffe 26%

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/03/internal_poll_shows_virginia_race_close.html

If you think about it, it is just kind of strange that "Money bags" McAuliffe still isn't running away with this thing. It stands as a testament to his many weaknesses.

[Lunar]

wow, a released internal poll with no additional information (sample size, date conducted) comes out showing the candidate that conducted it ahead that sort of blunts the recent slate of bad polling that's come out against said candidate, I can hardly believe it

[Meeker]

wow, a released internal poll with no additional information (sample size, date conducted) comes out showing the candidate that conducted it ahead that sort of blunts the recent slate of bad polling that's come out against said candidate, I can hardly believe it

I, for one, am shocked.

[© tweed]

I'd gladly take Deeds over McAuliffe and I'll be excited if he wins. Moran would make the best governor though, imo.

why do you care who would make the best governor?