Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, talk to every Moran voter you know and try and convince them to vote their plan B (Creigh) just to deny Terry his primary win.  This isn't liberal versus moderate at this point in the race.  This is serious versus cereal.

I've been trying, but sadly most of the Moran voters I've talked to are determined to support him.  It's very frustrating, because I see Deeds as the only candidate who can win in November, when it matters.

[Lunar]

Forget November, how about next week?  Moran's campaign has stereotypically imploded, like a number of Trippi's campaigns. 

This is pretty much a Creigh vs. Terry race now.  Anyone wish to dispute that, I'm all ears.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

It's actually pronounced "Cree", not "Cray". No, I don't know why.

[Lunar]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

It's actually pronounced "Cree", not "Cray". No, I don't know why.

If he puts on his Southern accent it ain't

[Rowan]

I'll just call him Craig.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

8 more days.  When does the PPP poll come out?

[Rowan]

PPP:

Our penultimate Virginia poll will come out tomorrow morning. Two major trends appear to have driven movement in the race over the last week and a half and it's safe to say any of the candidates could win next week.

When Terry McAuliffe first talked about entering this race last summer, my immediate thought was that it reminded me of Janet Reno's run for Governor of Florida in 2002. Although she had much stronger ties to that state than McAuliffe does to Virginia, it was still an instance of somebody who had built their name in Washington hoping that would translate into votes back at the state level, a formula that doesn't have a lot of successful precedents.

The arc of this primary contest has been pretty similar to Reno's. Reno had a large lead in the polls over competitor Bill McBride for most of 2002, just as McAuliffe held a lead between 9 and 16 points in every independent public poll conducted between April 25th and May 21st. But Reno's lead proved to be fragile, polls in the week before the election surprisingly showed the contest within the margin of error, and McBride ended up winning a most unexpected victory.

The fact that McAuliffe has bought expensive air time in Washington DC for this final week seems to be a clear indication he knows he doesn't have this race wrapped up- it will be interesting to see if this celebrity candidate can avoid Reno's fate and pull it out in the closing days.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

2002 is an excellent comparison.  Expect the map to look a lot like that; Terry will win the more liberal areas, but it won't be enough to overcome Deeds everywhere else.

[Meeker]

Apart from SEIU (which I know endorsed McAuliffe) does anyone know how the other unions endorsed? AFSCME? IBEW? IAFF? Teamsters?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Apart from SEIU (which I know endorsed McAuliffe) does anyone know how the other unions endorsed? AFSCME? IBEW? IAFF? Teamsters?

I think one other union endorsed McAuliffe, but that may have been the SEIU.

[Meeker]

AFSCME and the Firefighters both endorsed McAuliffe, still searching for the others but I would be surprised if they didn't go in a similar direction.

Anyways, confirms in my mind even more so that McAuliffe will win the primary and general.

[Lunar]

Not hard to find them Meeker,

32BJ of the Services Employees International Union (SEIU)
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
Arlington Coalition of Police Union
Local 1 of Virginia, Maryland, and DC of the International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers
The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
Virginia Professional Firefighters (VPFF)


http://www.terrymcauliffe.com/endorsements

You're so dumb that must be why you're a Terry buttbuddy OMGLOL

[Lunar]

Creigh looks like he has a few unions in here along with people with such names as "Butch" and "Moose"

http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/endorsements

Moran has:

Alexandria Fire Fighters Local 2141
City of Fairfax Professional Fire Fighters and Paramedics Local 2702
Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Fire Fighters Association, Local 3217
IATSE Local #22

[Meeker]

You think I'd actually allow my browser to load Terry McAuliffe's website?

No, I was using the Google. Like a NORMAL person, not like LOONAR THE LOONY LOOSER.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pre-primary fundraising reports (April 1 - May 27) are out.

Governor:

Creigh Deeds (D) - $1.2m starting balance, $676k raised, $1.4m spent, $522k cash on hand
Terry McAuliffe (D) - $2.4m starting balance, $1.8m raised, $3.0m spent, $1.2m cash on hand
Bob McDonnell (R) - $3.5m starting balance, $3.7m raised, $2.3m spent, $4.9m cash on hand
Brian Moran (D) - $823k starting balance, $844k raised, $960k spent, $707k cash on hand

Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling (R) - $733k starting balance, $448k raised, $252k spent, $928k cash on hand
Mike Signer (D) - $176k starting balance, $141k raised, $134k spent, $183k cash on hand
Jody Wagner (D) - $412k starting balance, $317k raised, $487k spent, $242k cash on hand

Attorney General:

Ken Cuccinelli (R) - $160k starting balance, $116k raised, $142k spent, $134k cash on hand
Steve Shannon (D) - $924k starting balance, $227k raised, $141k spent, $1.0m cash on hand

McDonnell received $1.5 million from the RNC and $750k from the RGA. This is in addition to $2 million the RGA has already chipped in. Hooray for no campaign contribution limits!

[Rowan]

Well, it's pretty obvious the DNC will do the same once they have a nominee.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds' Momentum Builds At Fairfax County JJ Dinner

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Percentage wise, this becomes:
Moran: 40.9%
Deeds: 30.3%
McAuliffe: 28.8%

[Lunar]

Terry should just convince one of his friends to write him a $80 million dollar check.

That'd be fun

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Terry should just convince one of his friends to write him a $80 million dollar check.

That'd be fun

If he asks his friends to do that after Deeds wins the nomination, I'll be impressed.

[Lunar]

ok, I think we all get it now

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

It's good to be optimistic, but do you really think he has a shot?

Yes, I absolutely do.

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

2002 is an excellent comparison.  Expect the map to look a lot like that; Terry will win the more liberal areas, but it won't be enough to overcome Deeds everywhere else.

Terry should just convince one of his friends to write him a $80 million dollar check.

That'd be fun

If he asks his friends to do that after Deeds wins the nomination, I'll be impressed.

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

[Tender Branson]

Latest NoVA/SUSA poll (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties):

Moran: 43%
McAuliffe: 27%
Deeds: 20%

2,000 adults from the 4 counties were interviewed 05/29/09 through 05/31/09. Of them, 1,743 were registered to vote. Of them, 570 told SurveyUSA they were likely to vote in next Tuesday's primary. In SurveyUSA's most recent statewide survey of Virginia, this region made up 28% of the state's likely voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=449f08ce-6258-4086-93e7-c34e580e5572

[Meeker]

They just polled Northern Virginia? WTF?

[Lunar]

Well,  it was commissioned by  WJLA-TV, based out of Arlington.  Maybe they just wanted to find out how people in their Virginian media market voted so they knew how to slant the news

kinda small sample size too, right?

On the face of things, it's ok...2000 polled, 570 likely voters... but that only means, what, 350 or so for the Democratic primary?  Ish?  Even that might be sketch, I'm not sure if more than 25% of total adults are really going to turn out for an off-year primary

Seems like an awk poll overall.

[Eraserhead]

Latest NoVA/SUSA poll (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties):

Moran: 43%
McAuliffe: 27%
Deeds: 20%

2,000 adults from the 4 counties were interviewed 05/29/09 through 05/31/09. Of them, 1,743 were registered to vote. Of them, 570 told SurveyUSA they were likely to vote in next Tuesday's primary. In SurveyUSA's most recent statewide survey of Virginia, this region made up 28% of the state's likely voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=449f08ce-6258-4086-93e7-c34e580e5572

I wish.

[Rowan]

You conveniently left out the interesting part. McDonnell is running even in NoVA. Not sure if he can lose if he does that.