Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It is more likely that high turnout will mean that more of the voters who voted in the 2008 presidential primary will show up rather than more Republicans and Independents, a group which McAuliffe is doing well with.

[Verily]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

Well obviously. But the more Independents show up the better it is for Deeds.

No, not really. The scant polling we have suggests Moran does best with Independents. (These may be liberal Independents; they probably are, since they're voting in the Democratic primary.) Deeds is not the sort of candidate with a lot of Independent appeal for a primary. His appeal is to old-time Democrats.

Independents will not be more than, say, 15% of the electorate, anyway, and Republicans less than 5%.

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

Well obviously. But the more Independents show up the better it is for Deeds.

No, not really. The scant polling we have suggests Moran does best with Independents. (These may be liberal Independents; they probably are, since they're voting in the Democratic primary.) Deeds is not the sort of candidate with a lot of Independent appeal for a primary. His appeal is to old-time Democrats.

Independents will not be more than, say, 15% of the electorate, anyway, and Republicans less than 5%.

SUSA had Republicans as 12% of their sample. And I stand corrected on Independents, PPP has McAuliffe and Deeds tied with the lead among Indies, and SUSA has McAuliffe leading by 4 over Deeds. Moran is in last place in all categories.

[Lunar]

I don't know if higher turnout necessarily means that a higher percentage of Independents and Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary anyhooo

[MaxQue]

When is the primary. I forgot again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

When is the primary. I forgot again.

June 9. I've added that information to the original post so nobody has to ask again.

[Lunar]

http://brianmoran.com/assets/2009/5/27/mackernegative.pdf

So much for Terry's pledge/promise to never go negative on a fellow Democrat

note the placement, Creigh comes first

[Frodo]

Nader: McAuliffe Offered Money To Avoid Key States in '04 Race
   
By Anita Kumar and Rosalind S. Helderman
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, May 29, 2009

RICHMOND, May 28 -- Former presidential candidate Ralph Nader went public Thursday with an allegation that Virginia gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe offered his campaign money to stay off the ballot in key states during the 2004 elections -- a disclosure timed to raise questions about McAuliffe's fitness for public office.

"Terry McAuliffe is slipperier than an eel in olive oil," Nader said in an interview.

He said McAuliffe, who was the Democratic National Committee chairman at the time, had offered Nader's campaign an unspecified amount of money, believed to be party funds, to spend in 31 states in exchange for an agreement to withdraw from 19 battleground states where he could potentially hurt Democrat John Kerry.

The allegation -- which McAuliffe has not disputed -- is the latest attempt to suggest that the candidate's lengthy career as a confidant to President Bill Clinton and top party fundraiser could now be a political liability. McAuliffe's aides countered that any effort he made to thwart Nader might actually play well with party loyalists.
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While this might actually help Terry McBribe win the nomination (as his campaign has claimed it will), I seriously doubt it will work to his favor after he wins the nomination.  With Republicans prepared to sink his candidacy with the corruption theme, I am almost ready to discuss the margin by which McDonnell will win this November.

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That has actually boosted my opinion of McAuliffe. Not enough to support him in the primary, but maybe enough so that I could reluctantly vote for him if I lived in the state and he won the primary, thankfully I won't ever have to do that no matter what.

[Nhoj]

That has actually boosted my opinion of McAuliffe. Not enough to support him in the primary, but maybe enough so that I could reluctantly vote for him if I lived in the state and he won the primary, thankfully I won't ever have to do that no matter what.

you are shockingly predictable.

[Eraserhead]

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

[Rowan]

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

It's good to be optimistic, but do you really think he has a shot?

[Lunar]

Creigh has a shot, certainly.  I wouldn't predict his win yet, but it's be mildly surprising if he didn't get at least second place with his recent momentum.

I don't like Ben's numbers though, something about it feels fishy, I can't quite put my finger on what though.

[Lunar]

Damn, this election is occurring like on the f-'in 9nth or something?  Can anyone else believe the primaries are so soon?!  I'm not even going to be in Indonesia when I find out whether or not Terry gives us a [deleted].

[Rowan]

Uh oh, is PPP going to show Deeds leading?

-Our second to last Virginia primary poll. That one's a surprise so far too although we'll be in the field a couple more days. Looks like the WaPo endorsement could really make a difference.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/05/coming-next-week.html

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

It's good to be optimistic, but do you really think he has a shot?

Yes, I absolutely do.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Right now I'm thinking McAuliffe will win by 5-7 points, with Deeds and Moran a hair apart for second and third. But if people are moving to Deeds, well, it'll be down to the wire.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republican state convention is occurring right now. McDonnell is officially nominated Governor. Bill Bolling faces no threat of losing the Lt. Governor nomination to Patrick Muldoon. I'm hearing Ken Cuccinelli is going to win the Attorney General nomination by a landslide, which isn't surprising, considering how right-wing he is. Of course, these conventions often come with surprises. See, for example, Bob Marshall's near-upset over Gilmore last year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bolling and Cuccinelli nominated.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, Pat Mullins, the interim RPV chair, was elected to a full term.

[Dan the Roman]

Well the Democrats should at least come out of this year with a bench, since Shannon should be the favorite for AG.

[Lunar]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Just vote for Creigh.

I've been making calls all week to every Virginia voter I know, trying to get them for Deeds.

[Lunar]

Well, talk to every Moran voter you know and try and convince them to vote their plan B (Creigh) just to deny Terry his primary win.  This isn't liberal versus moderate at this point in the race.  This is serious versus cereal.

I think it's pretty clear from momentum to fundraising to the WaPo endorsement that Moran has over a 50% chance of ending up in third place now.

I don't want to have to root for Bob.