Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[Harlow]

I wonder if one thing got picked up on. Although Premier Stefanson didn't give a specific timeline, at one point near the end of the debate she proudly said something like "Manitoba is on its way to 2 million people." I not only wondered if she was completely out of touch with the consequences of rapid population growth but I was concerned about her mental health.

Edit to add: not only has she put a timeline on it, she's even campaigning on it:
PC Leader Heather Stefanson's election promise to grow the province to two million people by 2030 if her party forms government after the Oct. 3 provincial election is an ambitious goal, according to experts. Katherine Dornian reports.

Manitoba's population is currently 1.44 million which in itself is an increase of, I think, around 250,000 in a decade, which seems to have worked out quite well. But, this goal is for an increase of around 90,000 a year.

Hasn't she learned by now that just because something is good that more of it is not necessarily better?

She must be balmy.

Interesting, because this would pretty much require a huge surge in immigration--not the sort of thing her base would want.

[toaster]

I wonder if one thing got picked up on. Although Premier Stefanson didn't give a specific timeline, at one point near the end of the debate she proudly said something like "Manitoba is on its way to 2 million people." I not only wondered if she was completely out of touch with the consequences of rapid population growth but I was concerned about her mental health.

Concerned for her mental health because she wants to grow / round up the population?  This is a common thing in Canada, wanting to round population up, or appear to be bigger than reality.

[Hatman 🍁]

I brought up the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

[lilTommy]

Brutal review of the PCs campaign

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/2023/09/28/tories-tumble-into-deep-dark-hole-at-the-end-of-campaign-trail

[DL]

I brought the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

...or they are circling the drain and madly grasping at straws

[Hatman 🍁]

I brought the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

...or they are circling the drain and madly grasping at straws

didn't say they weren't!

[warandwar]

I brought up the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

I get resentment politics, I get the whole "anti-woke" thing has a base, but I really have trouble believing people are desperate for someone who will finally stand up to the woke mob and refuse to exhume two murdered girls.

[DL]

Prediction time. I think the Manitoba NDP will win big and it will not be close. Seat count will likely be as follows:

NDP - 34 seats
PCs - 22 seats
Libs - 1 seat

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Unexpected $270 budget surplus posted in 2022/23 fiscal year. Honestly not sure if this helps the PCs as the incumbent government, hurts them due to their affinity for austerity, or if it's too close to election day for anybody to care.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brutal review of the PCs campaign

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/2023/09/28/tories-tumble-into-deep-dark-hole-at-the-end-of-campaign-trail

The PCs be like: we don't just want to be the healthcare mismanagement party, we want to be the a**hole party too!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I brought up the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

I get resentment politics, I get the whole "anti-woke" thing has a base, but I really have trouble believing people are desperate for someone who will finally stand up to the woke mob and refuse to exhume two murdered girls.

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

[Bacon King]

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

I mean i doubt it would be nearly so expensive, but your point is moot because that's not even PC rationale. Look at the image: they are against it "for health and safety reasons", whatever that even means

 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

I mean i doubt it would be nearly so expensive, but your point is moot because that's not even PC rationale. Look at the image: they are against it "for health and safety reasons", whatever that even means

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/study-finds-search-for-womens-remains-at-landfill-could-take-years-cost-up-to-184m
It's pretty obvious that it's reference to the fact that searching the landfill isn't risk free, it exposes the workers put on it to danger from machinery as well toxic chemicals.

And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

Why are you willing to put $184 million and Manitoba workers at risk for a search without a guarantee?" she asked, making reference to the maximum cost

[adma]

And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

So sort of like a "principled left/woke" version of "Build The Wall".

[MaxQue]

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

I mean i doubt it would be nearly so expensive, but your point is moot because that's not even PC rationale. Look at the image: they are against it "for health and safety reasons", whatever that even means

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/study-finds-search-for-womens-remains-at-landfill-could-take-years-cost-up-to-184m
It's pretty obvious that it's reference to the fact that searching the landfill isn't risk free, it exposes the workers put on it to danger from machinery as well toxic chemicals.

And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

Why are you willing to put $184 million and Manitoba workers at risk for a search without a guarantee?" she asked, making reference to the maximum cost

Should mining be banned? It exposes miners to dangerous machinery, after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, this is a race thing isn't it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

I mean i doubt it would be nearly so expensive, but your point is moot because that's not even PC rationale. Look at the image: they are against it "for health and safety reasons", whatever that even means

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/study-finds-search-for-womens-remains-at-landfill-could-take-years-cost-up-to-184m
It's pretty obvious that it's reference to the fact that searching the landfill isn't risk free, it exposes the workers put on it to danger from machinery as well toxic chemicals.

And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

Why are you willing to put $184 million and Manitoba workers at risk for a search without a guarantee?" she asked, making reference to the maximum cost

Should mining be banned? It exposes miners to dangerous machinery, after all.

In Canada it mostly doesn't, there's a huge difference in safety between mordern mining and shifting through a dump.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm personally expecting the NDP to underperform in the popular vote, but overperform in the number of seats that they win with said vote, when compared to what models like 338 say they should be winning. Basically, in de facto duopolistic contests, the parties to the left of the system (varies in the provinces) have found their coalition of voters to be getting more efficient and concentrated.

But I don't know where this stacks up in actual percentages cause there has been no public polling in two whole weeks!

[DL]

I'm amazed at how little polling there has been in Manitoba - its a hotly contested election and no polls in the second half of the campaign - though I expect that Forum will do their usual poll drop at midnight tonight. Its true that Manitoba is not a big province - but I think there was way more polling in the last Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and even PEI elections!

That being said, judging from the tactics the parties are employing in the final week its pretty clear that both the PCs and the NDP know that the NDP has a significant lead.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6983946

So, the Tories have got to the “don’t be ashamed to vote for us” level of desperation? Jeez their campaign went south fast

[warandwar]

The Manitoba PCs - "Everybodys gone to the movies/now we're alone at last"

[Oryxslayer]

Hey, finally some polling data:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1708973122630598751?t=OJii1Ja_62g9Y_o...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1708972099635732785?t=nLRt7GYspZavtwh...

There isn't actually that much of a swing here compared to previous polls from the firms. More undecideds and liberals going NDP at the end.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

There isn't actually that much of a swing here compared to previous polls from the firms. More undecideds and liberals going NDP at the end.

I have to wonder if the PCs running such an abysmal campaign is drawing Liberal/Green voters to the NDP or if it's just the prospect of the NDP forming government that's consolidating the opposition. For what its worth, I'm beginning to wonder if polls showing that the NDP have it in the bag might lead people to stick with their alternate choice or to stay home. On that note, also forecasting rain in Winnipeg tomorrow. Apparently early voting cracked 200k ballots but I always wonder if the weather on election day really affects things or if that's just apocryphal.

[DL]

Keep in mind that the Greens are only running candidates in 7 out of 57 ridings - so their vote was always going to evaporate.

The Manitoba Liberals just don't have any raison d'etre. They don't have a full slate of candidates. Their leader is very uninspiring and as a "centrist" party they don't really own any issue. Why would anyone vote for them when they can vote NDP?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709052207700549823?t=Iijf2hspPgDL0KF...

Forum has not polled the race before, so less relevant than the other two.

Their translation of votes to seats seems extreme,  but it's kinda what I alluded to above.  Electoral sorting of the partisan coalitions has seemingly made the duopolistic left party more efficient at converting votes to seats, as seen most recently in Alberta.

 I personally would no be surprised if the overall vote resembled this poll and the PCs only ended up with a few more seats than they projected, but that's my opinion.