Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Now that we’re done with Alberta, it’s time to move on to another prairie province!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Manitoba_general_election

To be held on or before October 3rd.

Edit: for some context, the PCs have held the government since 2016. Brian Pallister stepped down as premier in August 2021, with Heather Stefanson taking over after a brief placeholder premier. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew has been leading in polls for over a year and for the most part since late 2020, only trailing in one poll since then. The Liberals still hold a few seats.

[brucejoel99]

Now that we’re done with Alberta, it’s time to move on to another prairie province!

[adma]

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

[MaxQue]

What happened to Kari Lake Shelly Glover?

[DL]

As tempting as it to compare politically Manitoba to Alberta there are some major differences:

1. Unlike Alberta where the one NDP term was seen as a fluke, in Manitoba the NDP has more or less been the "natural party of government" since 1969
2. In Alberta sweeping Edmonton is not enough to win since there are so many seats in rural Alberta and the north. In Manitoba, well over half the seats are in Winnipeg so the NDP can win just by taking Winnipeg by a lot
3. In Alberta there are virtually no rural NDP seats (unless you count Banff-Kananaskis). In Manitoba there are four very safe NDP seats in the far north, plus the NDP typically wins a Brandon seat and places like Gimli and Selkirk and Dauphin are also very competitive.
4. For all of Danielle Smith's faults, she is very popular among a core of nutbars. In contrast Heather Stephenson is just plain dull and drab and doesn't really appeal to anyone at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

[lilTommy]

11 MLAs are not running for reelection, all are PCs, that's about a third of their caucus.

3 of these seats are very competitive for the NDP, and are top tier targets even if the PC incumbent was running. The NDP has a stronger chance at winning here now (Kildonan-River East, Selkirk and McPhillips)

Since Stefanson was elected leader/Premier they have not toped any poll. The NDP range from 40% - 46%, the PCs from 34% - 39%, and the Liberals from 9% - 15%. But those figures don't show how important Winnipeg is. In the most recent poll the NDP leads in Winnipeg 53% to PCs 30%, Liberals at 10%.
The PCs hold the "ring" of outer city seats, except Transcona which was very close but the NDP snuck a win here, while the NDP hold the inner seats stretching north. There are 8-10 seats here that will be in play for the NDP to win, PCs to hold and thus government. The Liberals are going to play spoiler here, they have seen their vote increase especially in the south.

[DL]

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

[Estrella]

In addition to what others mentioned about Winnipeg's dominance, NDP usually wins their seats with decent but not overwhelming margins, while much of rural Manitoba is even more turboconservative than rural Alberta. NDP always gets more seats than their share of vote would give them in a more normal province, so much so that 2011 almost ended up as a "wrong winner" election:



Southern Manitoba was designated as the location for Mennonite block settlements and to this day remains very fundamentalist and very right-wing. Morden and Winkler are probably the only decent-sized towns in Canada that consistently vote to the right of the surrounding rural areas. Steinbach holds a big Pride event every year that was sparked by the city council and the local school board acting like they were in Alabama. All of these places vote 80-90% Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

[DL]

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

If the final polls in Manitoba looked like a tossup that might give the jump ball to the PCs, but if the final polls keep giving the NDP a 20 point lead in Winnipeg - then no amount of "Bradley effect" or "shy Tories" is going to matter. The "Bradley effect" was a term first coined in the 1980s after Tom Bradley failed to be elected Governor of California. But that was almost 40 years ago. In 2008 there was a lot of speculation that Obama would do worse than the polls said because of the so-called Bradley effect - and it never happened and I think race is a much bigger potential deal breaker in the US than in Canada.

Of course in Canada we coined the term "the Flora syndrome" after Flora McDonald ran for PC leader and got far fewer votes than there were delegates wearing her button as they voted. Speculation at the time was that Canadians were secretly reluctant to vote for a woman. So maybe the "Flora Syndrome" on Heather Stephenson and the "Bradley effect" on Wab Kinew cancel each other out.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

[MaxQue]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Oh I'm sure that is very much a problem, but Hatman said 'or'.

[adma]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Oh I'm sure that is very much a problem, but Hatman said 'or'.

In that light, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more danger of voter hesitancy now that he actually looks poised to be Premier--whereas in 2019, such expectations were scarce; with the party still licking the wounds of their 2016 defeat, voters were simply voting for a presumed Official Opposition...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Would he be the first native premier of any province? I saw that Stephen Kakfwi was Premier of the Northwest Territories about 20 years back.

[adma]

Would he be the first native premier of any province? I saw that Stephen Kakfwi was Premier of the Northwest Territories about 20 years back.

John Norquay (a Metis) was Manitoba Premier in 1878-87--and that's about it AFAIK.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Would he be the first native premier of any province? I saw that Stephen Kakfwi was Premier of the Northwest Territories about 20 years back.

Yeah the territories don't really count. All six of Nunavut's premiers have been Inuit, unsurprisingly, and NWT's current premier is apparently Métis and the one before was apparently Dene.

So I did some digging, would Kinew be the first native premier of any province? The answer is no. In fact, Kinew wouldn't even be the first native premier of Manitoba - John Norquay, Premier from 1878-1887, was Métis. Of course, this was before the height of westward migration, and the Red River area was a Métis fortress (literally).

There's also Peter Lougheed, which I think is pretty well known, but it's also a much more dubious claim. He had one Métis great-grandfather (who interestingly was Canada's first Métis Senator, Richard Hardisty), but for all intents and purposes, he was white. I mean, 1/8 Métis is almost Elizabeth Warren levels of indigeneity, and I'm sure there have been other premiers who had distant native ancestry but we don't know about them because they weren't as notable as Hardisty.

Kinew would be the first First Nations premier of any Canadian province though. The Newfoundland Liberals had a Mi'kmaq leader, Kevin Aylward, back in 2011, but he didn't become Premier.

[brucejoel99]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Would he be the first native premier of any province? I saw that Stephen Kakfwi was Premier of the Northwest Territories about 20 years back.

Yeah the territories don't really count. All six of Nunavut's premiers have been Inuit, unsurprisingly, and NWT's current premier is apparently Métis and the one before was apparently Dene.

So I did some digging, would Kinew be the first native premier of any province? The answer is no. In fact, Kinew wouldn't even be the first native premier of Manitoba - John Norquay, Premier from 1878-1887, was Métis. Of course, this was before the height of westward migration, and the Red River area was a Métis fortress (literally).

There's also Peter Lougheed, which I think is pretty well known, but it's also a much more dubious claim. He had one Métis great-grandfather (who interestingly was Canada's first Métis Senator, Richard Hardisty), but for all intents and purposes, he was white. I mean, 1/8 Métis is almost Elizabeth Warren levels of indigeneity, and I'm sure there have been other premiers who had distant native ancestry but we don't know about them because they weren't as notable as Hardisty.

Kinew would be the first First Nations premier of any Canadian province though. The Newfoundland Liberals had a Mi'kmaq leader, Kevin Aylward, back in 2011, but he didn't become Premier.

FWIW, Aylward's predecessor as N&L Lib. Opp. Leader, Yvonne Jones (who never led the party in a provincial election), is a member of NunatuKavut descended from Inuit ancestors, & former BCNDP leader Carole James claims Métis descent.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

This is exactly when I'm referring to.

As for whether or not he'd be the First Indigenous Premier, didn't the Manitoba Assembly pass a resolution claiming that Louis Riel was the first Premier of the province?

[brucejoel99]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

This is exactly when I'm referring to.

As for whether or not he'd be the First Indigenous Premier, didn't the Manitoba Assembly pass a resolution claiming that Louis Riel was the first Premier of the province?

Rejected:

https://twitter.com/WabKinew/status/1580591122807951362

[warandwar]

PCs of Manitoba seem to be constitutionally incapable of not putting their racist foot in their racist mouth.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PCs of Manitoba seem to be constitutionally incapable of not putting their racist foot in their racist mouth.

Manitoba PCs not come off as racist challenge (Impossible!)

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1687101262016450560 looks like PCs might have a shot as Probe showed them tied.  At this point NDP would probably win a narrow majority still as vote more efficient so they can lose popular vote by 2 to 3 points and still win most seats as PCs tend to run up the margins in the rural areas south of Winnipeg so lots of wasted votes there.  But PCs seem to have momentum and if PCs rise any further likely win.  Still its early and I think both parties have reasonable shot and lots can change in campaign too.  However, I think idea NDP had this in the bag is false even if they do end up winning.

[DL]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1687101262016450560 looks like PCs might have a shot as Probe showed them tied.  At this point NDP would probably win a narrow majority still as vote more efficient so they can lose popular vote by 2 to 3 points and still win most seats as PCs tend to run up the margins in the rural areas south of Winnipeg so lots of wasted votes there.  But PCs seem to have momentum and if PCs rise any further likely win.  Still its early and I think both parties have reasonable shot and lots can change in campaign too.  However, I think idea NDP had this in the bag is false even if they do end up winning.

According to the regionals the NDP leads by 16 points in Winnipeg, which has over half the seats. That would suggest an Edmonton-style sweep. Plus there are 4 safe NDP seats in the north which have no equivalent in Alberta.