Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

I think your gut was wrong.

[Logical]

It's early, but the Libs are behind in all their seats.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Lookin good for Wab so far

[MaxQue]

It's early, but the Libs are behind in all their seats.

Actually, no, as there is no result yet in one of them.

[Oryxslayer]

Fort Garry for the NDP is the first seat projected by CPC.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

CBC coverage is pretty great tbh

[adma]

It's early, but the Libs are behind in all their seats.

Actually, no, as there is no result yet in one of them.

And Cindy L. is ahead in her seat--she might wind up sole survivor.

[Oryxslayer]

With about 71K votes, and suprisingly the rural areas under-reporting:

45.1% NDP: leading in 24, Called in 2 (Fort Gary, St. Vital)
40% PC, leading in 19, Called in 1 (Lakeside)
12.5% liberal, leading in 1

[Oryxslayer]

NDP up to 4 seats called PC's 3. The obvious call is from the NDP's leader Kinew who is leading by absurd margins, and a hold in Burrows. PC's in outlying Steinbach and southern Turtle Mountain.

[VPH]

The NDP is doing a little worse than polls were suggesting but I think they'll still pull it out. As in Alberta's recent election, the NDP seems weaker in rural areas and smaller town ridings than initially projected, at least from the models that exist. Not shocking to me considering overall trends.

[Oryxslayer]

Numbers where it stands:

44.6% NDP: 9 seats called, 19 seats leading, 3 seats unreporting with incumbents. 31 total
41.4% PC: 6 Called, 16 seats leading, 3 seats unreporting with incumbents. 25 total
11.6% Lib: leading in 1 1 total


As I suspected its looking like a tighter race than polling suggested overall, but the NDP has an efficient vote distribution in the outer parts of Winnipeg. Also the PC's holding up better in the outlying swingyer seats when compared to the urban ones.

Also the NDP leading in Tuxedo, aka Stephenson's seat, with a tiny number of polls reporting.

[MaxQue]

The PC Premier is currently losing her seat.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Seems like a solid but slightly dissaponting NDP victory. Scaling the premier might boost the mood though.

[Oryxslayer]

First Flip of the night is projected, Riel in South Winnipeg called for the NDP.

[Logical]

Cindy Lamoureux projected to hold Tyndall Park so Libs won't be wiped out tonight.

[King of Kensington]

River Heights is going NDP, with long-serving Liberal Jon Gerrard behind.  It seems to be the Winnipeg equivalent to St. Paul's in Toronto.

The one Liberal is the Lamoreoux dynasty seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Liberals projected victors in Tyndall Park, Lamoureux holds. They lead in no other seats, and their leader is conceding his race.

With almost 220K votes in, and only 4K separating the NDP and PCs:

NDP 32: 17 Called, 15 Leading. 1 Called flip.
PC 24: 11 Called, 13 Leading.
Lin: 1 Called

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

I think your gut was wrong.

The popular vote is close 😅 I'm saying my gut follows Lichtman Keys to the White House rules, at this point in the night at least

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Dougald Lamont is stepping down as the leader of the Liberal Party.

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

I think your gut was wrong.

The popular vote is close 😅 I'm saying my gut follows Lichtman Keys to the White House rules, at this point in the night at least

Well, the NDP lead was quite wider when I said that.

[Oryxslayer]

Dougald Lamont is stepping down as the leader of the Liberal Party.

His seat is the second one called as a flip to the NDP. Radisson is the third.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Dougald Lamont is stepping down as the leader of the Liberal Party.

His seat is the second one called as a flip to the NDP. Radisson is the third.

Oof, 52-34 with half of the locations in. Not sure if there’s any pockets of Liberal support left to be counted, but that must sting.

[Oryxslayer]

Elections Manitoba site has crashed. I spotted this a bit ago when reporting, but just made public. 

Can't be beneficial with the PCs parroting big lie talking points about the tabulation machines.

[MaxQue]

Seems to be yet another failure of electronic voting.

[Oryxslayer]

A updated count makes River heights the next called flip to NDP.  Liberals confirmed to end at 1 seat. Southdale flips from PC to NDP.