Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[DL]

Manitoba provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
    
🟠NDP 41%
🔵PCPM 39%
🔴MLP 14%
🟢GPM 3%

→ https://338canada.com/manitoba/polls.htm

[Research Co., September 15-17, 2023, n=600]

Note that the Greens are only running 7 candidates and the Liberals also have less than a full slate - so the NDP margin will likely be larger

[Duke of York]

Manitoba provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
    
🟠NDP 41%
🔵PCPM 39%
🔴MLP 14%
🟢GPM 3%

→ https://338canada.com/manitoba/polls.htm

[Research Co., September 15-17, 2023, n=600]

Note that the Greens are only running 7 candidates and the Liberals also have less than a full slate - so the NDP margin will likely be larger

I assume this would be enough for the NDP to get a majority?

[Harlow]

Manitoba provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
    
🟠NDP 41%
🔵PCPM 39%
🔴MLP 14%
🟢GPM 3%

→ https://338canada.com/manitoba/polls.htm

[Research Co., September 15-17, 2023, n=600]

Note that the Greens are only running 7 candidates and the Liberals also have less than a full slate - so the NDP margin will likely be larger

I assume this would be enough for the NDP to get a majority?

338Canada has the NDP missing a majority by 1 seat while down by 2%, so yes, I would assume so.

[mileslunn]

Manitoba provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
    
🟠NDP 41%
🔵PCPM 39%
🔴MLP 14%
🟢GPM 3%

→ https://338canada.com/manitoba/polls.htm

[Research Co., September 15-17, 2023, n=600]

Note that the Greens are only running 7 candidates and the Liberals also have less than a full slate - so the NDP margin will likely be larger

Overall numbers look about right, but rest of Manitoba showing PCs only 1 point ahead I have trouble believing.  Yes NDP should win in Northern Manitoba and maybe pick up one or two traditional, but PCs tend to get North Korean like margins in rural ridings near the US border.

[DL]

There is something weird in the crosstabs. If the NDP leads by 9 points in Winnipeg which is 60% of the province and are only 1% behind in rest of Manitoba they should have way more than just a two point lead across the province.

If indeed the NDP is doing well outside Winnipeg I’d expect them to gain Brandon East, Dauphin, Selkirk and Gimli-Interlake - and maybe even Brandon West if they have a good night. Not much else in the way of low or middle hanging fruit for the NDP outside of Winnipeg. I suppose in a really good year Red River North could also be a possibility

[Hatman 🍁]

There's no way the NDP is only down by 1 outside Winnipeg

[Benjamin Frank]

There is something weird in the crosstabs. If the NDP leads by 9 points in Winnipeg which is 60% of the province and are only 1% behind in rest of Manitoba they should have way more than just a two point lead across the province.

If indeed the NDP is doing well outside Winnipeg I’d expect them to gain Brandon East, Dauphin, Selkirk and Gimli-Interlake - and maybe even Brandon West if they have a good night. Not much else in the way of low or middle hanging fruit for the NDP outside of Winnipeg. I suppose in a really good year Red River North could also be a possibility

Swan River is probably still competitive for the NDP when the P.C isn't named Wowchuk.

The Harapiak/Wowchuk family was comparable to the Kennedy's (for the NDP) in rural Manitoba. (As is the Lamouroux family (for the Liberals) in Winnipeg.) And the name is likely gold for P.C Rick Wowchuk as well.

Harry Harapiak was the lower profile brother in the family who represented a northern riding for the provincial NDP. His brother, Len Harapiak was the MLA for Swan River for only two years from 1986 to 1988 actually losing in both 1977 and 1981 but he came a close second to Gary Doer in the 1988 leadership convention in what became something of an urban/rural race.

Len Harapiak's sister Rosann Wowchuk was the NDP MLA for Swan River from 1990 to 2011.

[DL]

New poll by Angus Reid has the NDP leading 47-41. This would be a landslide in seat

https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/

[lilTommy]

New poll by Angus Reid has the NDP leading 47-41. This would be a landslide in seat

https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/

Winnipeg: NDP - 53%, PCs - 31%, Liberal 13% (will hold on to River Heights, but St. Boniface and Tyndall Park are going to be tough to hold)

Funny, the "Rest of Manitoba" is almost the reverse: PCs - 53%, NDP - 38%

Kinew (34%) is sited as best premier of over Stefanson (23%), even more bad news for the PCs, only half of 2019 PC voters think she would be the best premier.

[Harlow]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

[lilTommy]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

[DL]

Tonight is the televised leaders debate

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

[Harlow]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

Pretty much every single provincial election I've watched has been livestreamed on Youtube through CBC and accessible in the US.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

Pretty much every single provincial election I've watched has been livestreamed on Youtube through CBC and accessible in the US.

Hell, I was able to watch the results for the Yukon at their last election.

[Benjamin Frank]

Leaders debate going on right now.

[DL]

Leaders debate going on right now.

By all accounts Wab Kinew was the clear winner and Stephenson was a total flop

[lilTommy]

When Wab introduced himself like "How do you do, I'm Wab kinew" I laughed! if that's not a quintessentially Canadian Folksy Dad intro I don't know what is. I could feel his boys cringe at that

Also say some backlash against Stefanson for saying "those people" and then realising her mistake saying MMIW. Still she said it and it was heard

[warandwar]

Also say some backlash against Stefanson for saying "those people" and then realising her mistake saying MMIW. Still she said it and it was heard

This is getting into Freudian territory with the Manitoba PCs.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

I think Stephenson's "people" comment was more because she wanted to avoid saying "women" rather than it being a "you people" moment but maybe I give people too much credit, or maybe because I'm new to Manitoba I don't quite follow the dynamic.

Anyway, I was impressed by Wab. I expected to like Douglad the most going in since I'm skeptical of an NDP platform that both lowers taxes and increases spending but he was basically a non-factor. I'm not sure of the details but I trust Wab has good intentions at least. He was laser focused on healthcare while Heather seemed to try to look more at cost of living, to lesser effect. Funny how attacks from both Heather and Doug about other people "not admitting past mistakes" or whatever all failed to land.

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

Pretty much every single provincial election I've watched has been livestreamed on Youtube through CBC and accessible in the US.

Hell, I was able to watch the results for the Yukon at their last election.

I assume the live stream will be through CBC Manitoba?

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

Pretty much every single provincial election I've watched has been livestreamed on Youtube through CBC and accessible in the US.

Hell, I was able to watch the results for the Yukon at their last election.

I assume the live stream will be through CBC Manitoba?

Yes, or probably CBC Newsworld, though that feed usually cuts off after an hour or two. You can probably find the CBC Manitoba feed livestreamed on youtube as the debate was.

[adma]

When Wab introduced himself like "How do you do, I'm Wab kinew" I laughed! if that's not a quintessentially Canadian Folksy Dad intro I don't know what is. I could feel his boys cringe at that

Nice to see he's still using that disarming catchphrase (it was his trademark in 2019 as well)

[Benjamin Frank]

I wonder if one thing got picked up on. Although Premier Stefanson didn't give a specific timeline, at one point near the end of the debate she proudly said something like "Manitoba is on its way to 2 million people." I not only wondered if she was completely out of touch with the consequences of rapid population growth but I was concerned about her mental health.

Edit to add: not only has she put a timeline on it, she's even campaigning on it:
PC Leader Heather Stefanson's election promise to grow the province to two million people by 2030 if her party forms government after the Oct. 3 provincial election is an ambitious goal, according to experts. Katherine Dornian reports.

Manitoba's population is currently 1.44 million which in itself is an increase of, I think, around 250,000 in a decade, which seems to have worked out quite well. But, this goal is for an increase of around 90,000 a year.

Hasn't she learned by now that just because something is good that more of it is not necessarily better?

She must be balmy.