Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[Oryxslayer]

Networks project NDP majority government.

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote, Winnipeg:

NDP  50.8%
PCs  31.9%
Liberals  16%

https://twitter.com/AhmarSKhan/status/1709407867038540189

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Heather Stefanson is stepping down as leader of the PC party.

No word yet on if she's resigning her seat - or even if she won her seat. She probably did but it's close.

[Oryxslayer]

Not many people care cause the victory is projected,  but the election reporting system seemingly broke again a few minutes back.

[MaxQue]

Not many people care cause the victory is projected,  but the election reporting system seemingly broke again a few minutes back.

Seems to be back.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Interesting that the NDP is within a hair of winning both Brandon seats. Brandon West was supposed to be Safe PC, and yet they could end up taking it while still falling short in a few more rural ridings that were seen as more likely to go NDP such as Selkirk, Dawson Trail, and Interlake-Gimli. Dauphin right now is also 50-50. Really shows how the NDP underperformed in the rural areas but held their own in the urban areas - even in the smaller cities like Brandon.

[MaxQue]

Estimated turnout of 48%, results website is down again.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that the NDP is within a hair of winning both Brandon seats. Brandon West was supposed to be Safe PC, and yet they could end up taking it while still falling short in a few more rural ridings that were seen as more likely to go NDP such as Selkirk, Dawson Trail, and Interlake-Gimli. Dauphin right now is also 50-50. Really shows how the NDP underperformed in the rural areas but held their own in the urban areas - even in the smaller cities like Brandon.

Here's the impression that I get about the outlying seats that some saw as competitive, someone who knows better can correct me if I am wrong. And comparable seats are arguably in every western province and some similar western US states.

These have large floors for the reformist-aligned party either cause of Indigenous populations, small comparatively urban towns, or unions/mining. But the ceiling is low cause these populations are surrounded by rural areas little different to their conservative neighboring seats. The changing bases of support mean that the overall coalition may be more electorally efficient, but the NDP in this context flips many more voters in the cities (and areas that resemble suburbs but are part of the annexed city). The ceiling may once have been high enough for a flip, but now there just are not enough convincible voters to defeat the rural turf.

And this context is not so easily captured by a simple swing model of course.

[Lachi]

also says something about their relative vote efficiency, only having a PV margin of about 3.5 yet having a pretty solid majority anyway

[Hatman 🍁]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

[Duke of York]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

[Hatman 🍁]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

[Duke of York]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

What is causing such major problems?

[lilTommy]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.

[Oryxslayer]

If it's only a single poll remaining, its the one covering voters who voted elsewhere but reside in the seat. AKA, no particularly large or biased in favor of a party. Advance vote was counted.

The one uncalled seat that does not just have this situation is Selkirk, where there was a polling location that supposedly had power outages. When this understandable situation occurs in the US the people working there direct voters to nearby functioning locations, which would suggest there will be few votes there when finally added. But no idea if this practice remains the same in Canada.

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon390 West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.

I think CBC has given up on updating results.

On their uncalled seats, looking at the official results platform:
Dauphin: The official results there actually have less votes (and are missing 1 day poll and the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings); NDP lead 344
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 309
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 122
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 106
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 474 (so it means the missing poll is in)
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 97 (which I think means a recount if the NDP candidate wants it)
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 265

[Hatman 🍁]

if we're only waiting for the out of riding advance polls for five ridings, that will probably only amount to a small handful of votes each, so I doubt any ridings will flip.

[Bacon King]

Dauphin: missing ... the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings

It just now hit me those are almost definitely the same five ridings for every location, and they can be identified because they're the only five ridings where "Outside ED Advance" is listed as 52/56 rather than 51/56

it's the five northernmost ridings. Swan River and the four NDP seats up there. It's probably not a coincidence that those five are all still waiting on some election day precincts to report


I can't imagine many out-of-district voters are up there?

[Duke of York]

Dauphin: missing ... the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings

It just now hit me those are almost definitely the same five ridings for every location, and they can be identified because they're the only five ridings where "Outside ED Advance" is listed as 52/56 rather than 51/56

it's the five northernmost ridings. Swan River and the four NDP seats up there. It's probably not a coincidence that those five are all still waiting on some election day precincts to report


I can't imagine many out-of-district voters are up there?

why is it taking so long to count them?

[adma]

Marginal stat I find noteworthy: that the Keystone Party outpolled the Greens.  (Yeah, I know the Greens only had a handful of candidates, but...)

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon390 West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.

I think CBC has given up on updating results.

On their uncalled seats, looking at the official results platform:
Dauphin: The official results there actually have less votes (and are missing 1 day poll and the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings); NDP lead 344
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 309
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 122
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 106
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 474 (so it means the missing poll is in)
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 97 (which I think means a recount if the NDP candidate wants it)
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 265

And now, with only the out of riding advance votes casted in Flin Flon left,
Dauphin: NDP +344 -> NDP +332
McPhillips: NDP +309 -> NDP +333
Waverley: NDP +122 -> NDP +119
Lagimodière: NDP +106 -> NDP +103
Selkirk: PC +474 -> PC +467
Brandon West: PC +97 -> PC +95
Tuxedo: PC +265 -> PC +263

[Hatman 🍁]

Barely any changes in the margins. Knowing that there were probably so few votes left to count, the media should've called these races a bit earlier.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Brandon West I assume will go to a recount but either way, good result for the NDP

[MaxQue]

No change at all in vote margins with the last results coming of Flin Flon advance out of riding votes.

Brandon West I assume will go to a recount but either way, good result for the NDP

If the NDP requests one, the threshold for automatic recount is 50 votes. It doesn't look like the candidate is interested in one.