Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709052207700549823?t=Iijf2hspPgDL0KF...

Forum has not polled the race before, so less relevant than the other two.

Their translation of votes to seats seems extreme,  but it's kinda what I alluded to above.  Electoral sorting of the partisan coalitions has seemingly made the duopolistic left party more efficient at converting votes to seats, as seen most recently in Alberta.

 I personally would no be surprised if the overall vote resembled this poll and the PCs only ended up with a few more seats than they projected, but that's my opinion.

The thing that is wierd is the sheer number of seats in Winnipeg, especially swing seats. They are all left of the average result, too

[adma]

Keep in mind that the Greens are only running candidates in 7 out of 57 ridings - so their vote was always going to evaporate.

The Manitoba Liberals just don't have any raison d'etre. They don't have a full slate of candidates. Their leader is very uninspiring and as a "centrist" party they don't really own any issue. Why would anyone vote for them when they can vote NDP?

The "why" is all in the seats they presently hold: (1) leadership, (2) ex-leadership + baked-in last-red-spot-on-the-map "tradition"/inertia, (3) the name "Lamoureux".

[DL]

I get that the Manitoba Liberals have raison d’être in the three seats where they have incumbents. But everywhere else they seem to be a party of nothingness

[lilTommy]

Pollsters have the Liberals anywhere from 15% (that seems too high) to 9%, the 10-12% is probably more accurate and closer to 10. The party does not have a full slate, which is trending to the advantage of the NDP, and b/c this has become so polarizing (PCs that's on you) progressives are trending NDP.

Of the three seats, I think Lamont's (St. Boniface) is the weakest. Tyndall Park is only held by the Liberals since it's a Lamaroux, BUT if there is a massive swing to the NDP she could lose. But I think she has to be favoured just on name alone. The NDP are running a filipino who make up the largest minority group in the riding. These two seats have only been held by the liberals since 2016 and 2017. If the NDP are polling well over 50% in Winnipeg, these seats have to been as in play, even with Lamaroux's name.

[DL]

Can anyone explain what makes the Lamoureux’s so popular? I find Kevin Lamoureuxti be a very abrasive asshole

[MaxQue]

Pollsters have the Liberals anywhere from 15% (that seems too high) to 9%, the 10-12% is probably more accurate and closer to 10. The party does not have a full slate, which is trending to the advantage of the NDP, and b/c this has become so polarizing (PCs that's on you) progressives are trending NDP.

Of the three seats, I think Lamont's (St. Boniface) is the weakest. Tyndall Park is only held by the Liberals since it's a Lamaroux, BUT if there is a massive swing to the NDP she could lose. But I think she has to be favoured just on name alone. The NDP are running a filipino who make up the largest minority group in the riding. These two seats have only been held by the liberals since 2016 and 2017. If the NDP are polling well over 50% in Winnipeg, these seats have to been as in play, even with Lamaroux's name.

And there, the NDP running a proeminent French Métis teacher, in a riding that's 31% French.

In other news, the Green candidate in Steinbach withdrew, any vote in her favour will be voided and we will get late in Selkirk, as they can't use electronic voting due to a town-wide power outage and are using paper ballots.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jays playoff game today, will it suppress turnout/attention at all? There may be quite a few people travelling to Minneapolis to watch (not enough to affect the election of course); I seem to recall there were a lot of Jays fans in attendance there during the regular season, but I'm not sure how popular they actually are in Manitoba. 

[MaxQue]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

[mileslunn]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can anyone explain what makes the Lamoureux’s so popular? I find Kevin Lamoureuxti be a very abrasive asshole

Local Champion type, and they are invariably utterly insufferable people to anyone outside their target audience.

[MaxQue]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

[lilTommy]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

My guess would be she was in Brandon, and places like Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin, Swan River... the rural ridings held by the PCs but are top NDP targets. I think the PCs have given up on most of Winnipeg (except maybe 3-4 seats)

[Oryxslayer]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

My guess would be she was in Brandon, and places like Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin, Swan River... the rural ridings held by the PCs but are top NDP targets. I think the PCs have given up on most of Winnipeg (except maybe 3-4 seats)

In theory, if we look at Alberta, running the right-of-CPC campaign as the PCs have would result in there being smaller swings in said outer seats when compared to the big city. Will that still save the northern incumbents though? We shall see.

[Duke of York]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

[MaxQue]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

Well, 200790 electors voted early already.

[Duke of York]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

Well, 200790 electors voted early already.

still not a big number in a province of 1.4 million.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

If the freak thunder/hailstorm in Winnipeg this morning gets me the chaotic hung legislature I dreamed of, I will pledge my eternal loyalty to Zeus.

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

[adma]

As an aside, I find that election-atlas.ca is giving me "these basemap tiles will no longer be available as of October 31, 2023".  Hope that's addressed once the mod logs in the Manitoba election numbers...

[MaxQue]

As an aside, I find that election-atlas.ca is giving me "these basemap tiles will no longer be available as of October 31, 2023".  Hope that's addressed once the mod logs in the Manitoba election numbers...

He seems to have switched the maps to OSM, now.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls closed in majority of locations.

[MaxQue]

For future reference, the threshold to be an official party is 4.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results with 14K votes, probably mostly Early:

NDP leads 13
PC 7
Lib 1