Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1687101262016450560 looks like PCs might have a shot as Probe showed them tied.  At this point NDP would probably win a narrow majority still as vote more efficient so they can lose popular vote by 2 to 3 points and still win most seats as PCs tend to run up the margins in the rural areas south of Winnipeg so lots of wasted votes there.  But PCs seem to have momentum and if PCs rise any further likely win.  Still its early and I think both parties have reasonable shot and lots can change in campaign too.  However, I think idea NDP had this in the bag is false even if they do end up winning.

Probably not quite a clean sweep, but PCs likely only win a few normally very safe ones, probably around 4 which as mentioned yes this probably still results in an NDP win seat wise.  But they don't have much room to fall so if gap widens anymore PCs win but if can hold or reverse then can win.
According to the regionals the NDP leads by 16 points in Winnipeg, which has over half the seats. That would suggest an Edmonton-style sweep. Plus there are 4 safe NDP seats in the north which have no equivalent in Alberta.

[DL]

Looking at the full tables from Mainstreet i think they messed up their weighting. They have weighted Winnipeg to be about 45% of the province and the rest of Manitoba to be about 55% - in fact its about the reverse and Winnipeg has 32 seats while there are 25 seats in the rest of the province.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the full tables from Mainstreet i think they messed up their weighting. They have weighted Winnipeg to be about 45% of the province and the rest of Manitoba to be about 55% - in fact its about the reverse and Winnipeg has 32 seats while there are 25 seats in the rest of the province.

Yeah good catch although even then PCs still lead but it is 41% to 39% so a bit closer and enough NDP would win majority of seats.

[DL]

Looking at the full tables from Mainstreet i think they messed up their weighting. They have weighted Winnipeg to be about 45% of the province and the rest of Manitoba to be about 55% - in fact its about the reverse and Winnipeg has 32 seats while there are 25 seats in the rest of the province.

Yeah good catch although even then PCs still lead but it is 41% to 39% so a bit closer and enough NDP would win majority of seats.

If the NDP fell short of a majority, they would almost certainly govern with Liberal support. The only way the PCs stay in power is if they win a majority and that would require them to be at least close in Winnipeg

PS: I checked Statscan and actually 61% of the population of Manitoba lives in Winnipeg

[mileslunn]

Looking at the full tables from Mainstreet i think they messed up their weighting. They have weighted Winnipeg to be about 45% of the province and the rest of Manitoba to be about 55% - in fact its about the reverse and Winnipeg has 32 seats while there are 25 seats in the rest of the province.

Yeah good catch although even then PCs still lead but it is 41% to 39% so a bit closer and enough NDP would win majority of seats.

If the NDP fell short of a majority, they would almost certainly govern with Liberal support. The only way the PCs stay in power is if they win a majority and that would require them to be at least close in Winnipeg

PS: I checked Statscan and actually 61% of the population of Manitoba lives in Winnipeg

Absolutely for PCs it is majority or bust.  They can lose Winnipeg by around 10 points and still win as in 2019 tied and won by healthy margin but lose it by 15 or 20 points, then agreed cannot win even if win popular vote due to blowouts in rural areas.

Winnipeg is 55% if you take city itself.  61% is CMA, but surrounding areas are more like donut around Edmonton which went UCP despite poor showing in city as a lot more rural than say 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Surrounding areas more exurban than suburban and parties in right are struggling in suburbs but holding up in exurbs.

[adma]

Also don't forget Brandon when it comes to competitive spots outside of Winnipeg & the North.

[mileslunn]

Also don't forget Brandon when it comes to competitive spots outside of Winnipeg & the North.

Brandon East could go NDP, but Brandon West is a real stretch.

[adma]

Also don't forget Brandon when it comes to competitive spots outside of Winnipeg & the North.

Brandon East could go NDP, but Brandon West is a real stretch.

Depends on the scale of NDP success, of course.

Generally speaking, Brandon is the Lethbridge of Manitoba.

[DL]

Winnipeg is 55% if you take city itself.  61% is CMA, but surrounding areas are more like donut around Edmonton which went UCP despite poor showing in city as a lot more rural than say 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Surrounding areas more exurban than suburban and parties in right are struggling in suburbs but holding up in exurbs.

I'm not so sure about that. Winnipeg is more like Calgary in that virtually all of the CMA is within the city limits. There really isn't much of the Winnipeg CMA that is in that so-called donut - only three ridings are arguably exurban Winnipeg - Springfield-Richot, Red River North and Selkirk and that's
about it - compared to 32 ridings that are in Winnipeg proper.

[mileslunn]

Winnipeg is 55% if you take city itself.  61% is CMA, but surrounding areas are more like donut around Edmonton which went UCP despite poor showing in city as a lot more rural than say 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Surrounding areas more exurban than suburban and parties in right are struggling in suburbs but holding up in exurbs.

I'm not so sure about that. Winnipeg is more like Calgary in that virtually all of the CMA is within the city limits. There really isn't much of the Winnipeg CMA that is in that so-called donut - only three ridings are arguably exurban Winnipeg - Springfield-Richot, Red River North and Selkirk and that's
about it - compared to 32 ridings that are in Winnipeg proper.

It is only 5% and federally riding of Kildonan-St. Paul extends beyond city limits while portions of other three that border city.  Granted not a lot but still Winnipeg itself is 56% of province population according to 2021 census.

[adma]

Winnipeg is 55% if you take city itself.  61% is CMA, but surrounding areas are more like donut around Edmonton which went UCP despite poor showing in city as a lot more rural than say 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Surrounding areas more exurban than suburban and parties in right are struggling in suburbs but holding up in exurbs.

I'm not so sure about that. Winnipeg is more like Calgary in that virtually all of the CMA is within the city limits. There really isn't much of the Winnipeg CMA that is in that so-called donut - only three ridings are arguably exurban Winnipeg - Springfield-Richot, Red River North and Selkirk and that's
about it - compared to 32 ridings that are in Winnipeg proper.

Yeah, we're talking more about the equivalent of Strathmore or Okotoks here.  Though the NDP has some enduring claim of ancestrality around Selkirk--but otherwise, this is territory that's at most "nice to have", but hasn't been cornerstone to the NDP coalition since the Schreyer/Pawley era, and Doer proved one could win without it (Selkirk somewhat excepted).

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if the drop in NDP support is because of the debate about searching that landfill for the murdered Indigenous women? I'd imagine more fiscally conservative people might be put off by the large price tag for finding a needle in a haystack.

[DL]

I'm wondering if the drop in NDP support is because of the debate about searching that landfill for the murdered Indigenous women? I'd imagine more fiscally conservative people might be put off by the large price tag for finding a needle in a haystack.

I will ask a friend in Winnipeg but I suspect that its more that during these dog days of summer the provincial government has been out of the news and low profile and some people forget why they were so pissed off.

[Benjamin Frank]

As I mentioned in the Canadian general discussion, Wab Kinew seems to be running a centrist slightly populist campaign. His stance on crime uses the Bill Clinton line 'tough on crime and the causes of crme,' he promises to cut provincial sales taxes on gasoline (and freeze hydro rates) and also promises $500 million to hire more doctors and nurses while stressing that more money is not the ultimate solution for health care (Kinew has a degree in economics.)

More interesting I think for the NDP could be that the provincial Liberals are likely suffering from the decline in support for the federal Liberals (despite the Federal Liberals easily winning the Winnipeg South Centre by-election only a few months ago.)

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont is a left wing liberal who likely 'takes' a lot of support from the NDP rather than the Progressive Conservatives. It's very likely that the provincial Liberals will campaign to the left of the NDP in this election (as we've seen some times in the U.K with the Liberal Democrats and Labour.)

It might be a bit soon to determine this, but it looks like the Liberals are having a hard time getting a full slate. If they end up with over 50 candidates it probably won't be a big deal (and they might just appoint a bunch of paper candidates), but if they end up with less than 50 candidates I'd expect media stories on the 'collapse' of the provincial Liberals (and how that's a worrying sign for the federal Liberals) which might help to discredit the provincial Liberals and push left wing voters to the NDP.

I'm not sure when the candidate filing deadline is for this election which is in around 5 weeks time, but as best as I can tell, the Liberals have so far nominated just 32 candidates. To attempt to maintain their credibility for this election, they might have to fall back on the 'we're running candidates in more than half the ridings, so we could get elected with a majority government and implement our promises' line.

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised no discussion here not that the campaign is officially underway, with the vote scheduled for October 3rd.

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1699784838554046957?t=73WSaN0cMU77IINO...

First poll of the campaign period came out today, and while the Tories are ahead,  NDP voter efficiency in the regional crosstabs gives them a narrow majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP probably has more to gain from the Liberals and Greens, too. Though maybe right wing Liberals will go to the PCs once they find out the Liberals have outflanked the NDP on their left.

[Benjamin Frank]

I suppose one can debate the importance of long prior elections, but one reason I don't think the comeback of the Manitoba P.Cs should be considered a surprise is that their vote share has been fairly consistent at at least 40% of the vote since 1986.

I look back to 1986 because the 1981 election was the last time that the provincial Liberals did not run a full slate of candidates.

In the 10 elections from 1986 on, the P.Cs have gotten at least 40% of the vote in 7.  The only exceptions were in 1988 (when the P.Cs returned to government) when provincial Liberal support surged under leader Sharon Carstairs especially in Winnipeg, and in 2003 and 2007 when the P.Cs were up against popular Premier Gary Doer.

The lowest vote share for the P.Cs from 1986 on is 36.3% of the vote in 2003.

[mileslunn]

I suppose one can debate the importance of long prior elections, but one reason I don't think the comeback of the Manitoba P.Cs should be considered a surprise is that their vote share has been fairly consistent at at least 40% of the vote since 1986.

I look back to 1986 because the 1981 election was the last time that the provincial Liberals did not run a full slate of candidates.

In the 10 elections from 1986 on, the P.Cs have gotten at least 40% of the vote in 7.  The only exceptions were in 1988 (when the P.Cs returned to government) when provincial Liberal support surged under leader Sharon Carstairs especially in Winnipeg, and in 2003 and 2007 when the P.Cs were up against popular Premier Gary Doer.

The lowest vote share for the P.Cs from 1986 on is 36.3% of the vote in 2003.

Agreed I would say 40-45% is normal for PCs with over 45% only in really good elections and under 40% in bad elections.  A lot though depends on where votes are.  If not too far behind in Winnipeg can win, but if above 40% mostly due to North Korean like margins in rural southern areas, then they will lose.

[lilTommy]

I suppose one can debate the importance of long prior elections, but one reason I don't think the comeback of the Manitoba P.Cs should be considered a surprise is that their vote share has been fairly consistent at at least 40% of the vote since 1986.

I look back to 1986 because the 1981 election was the last time that the provincial Liberals did not run a full slate of candidates.

In the 10 elections from 1986 on, the P.Cs have gotten at least 40% of the vote in 7.  The only exceptions were in 1988 (when the P.Cs returned to government) when provincial Liberal support surged under leader Sharon Carstairs especially in Winnipeg, and in 2003 and 2007 when the P.Cs were up against popular Premier Gary Doer.

The lowest vote share for the P.Cs from 1986 on is 36.3% of the vote in 2003.

Agreed I would say 40-45% is normal for PCs with over 45% only in really good elections and under 40% in bad elections.  A lot though depends on where votes are.  If not too far behind in Winnipeg can win, but if above 40% mostly due to North Korean like margins in rural southern areas, then they will lose.

Agreed, this is why we almost need to ignore the province wide vote and look at the Winnipeg polling specifically. Cause the PCs can very easily have a slim lead provincewide but the NDP could win if they have a solid lead in Winnipeg.
Rural Manitoba is very split (like SASK); PCs own most seats in the south, the NDP own those 4 Northern seats typically. You really only have about half a dozen truly competitive seats: Brandon East (and lets say West too), Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin... maybe Red River North, and maybe Swan River... but after that. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the Premier loses her seat?

[lilTommy]

Any chance the Premier loses her seat?

Nope. Her seat is Tuxedo, which has been held by the PCs in every election since its creation. Even during the last 4 term NDP government, Tuxedo voted typically 50%+ for the PCs. Very safe PC seat.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

[lilTommy]

Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

Some notable competitive ridings here; Selkirk and Dauphin, but also Brandon West and Red River North.

[Benjamin Frank]

Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

Some notable competitive ridings here; Selkirk and Dauphin, but also Brandon West and Red River North.

I made a mistake earlier. When somebody corrects me on a mistake I give that post a recommendation, however, unfortunately nobody corrected me here.

I had said that 1981 was the last time the Liberals did not run a full slate. The Liberals somehow did not run a full slate in 2016 despite polling that sometimes had them ahead of the NDP. Their leader in 2016 was an absolute disaster.

Anyway, this is an article on the potential consequences of the Liberals failure to run a full slate: https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/what-fewer-liberal-candidates-could-mean-for-the-upcoming-provincial-election-1.6560691

[adma]

Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

Some notable competitive ridings here; Selkirk and Dauphin, but also Brandon West and Red River North.

I made a mistake earlier. When somebody corrects me on a mistake I give that post a recommendation, however, unfortunately nobody corrected me here.

I had said that 1981 was the last time the Liberals did not run a full slate. The Liberals somehow did not run a full slate in 2016 despite polling that sometimes had them ahead of the NDP. Their leader in 2016 was an absolute disaster.

Anyway, this is an article on the potential consequences of the Liberals failure to run a full slate: https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/what-fewer-liberal-candidates-could-mean-for-the-upcoming-provincial-election-1.6560691

They also didn't run a full slate in 1999, the first under Jon Gerrard's leadership.  (For some reason, I thought there were others besides '99 and '16)