Toronto Mayoral By Election

[DL]

I wouldn't be surprised is Bailao actually gets a lower vote share in Davenport than in the city as a whole. She was increasingly an anachronism as city councillor for what is now easily the most progressive ward in the city and her core voters are rapidly dying of old age or moving away

[adma]

I wouldn't be surprised is Bailao actually gets a lower vote share in Davenport than in the city as a whole. She was increasingly an anachronism as city councillor for what is now easily the most progressive ward in the city and her core voters are rapidly dying of old age or moving away

Which is more likely if she *does* actually catch wind as nominal-opposition to Chow, as per Mainstreet.  But if she continues to get non-Mainstreet single-digit numbers, she might get a higher share in Davenport only by default, and by absorbing a vacuum that'd otherwise go to other candidates...

[DL]

New poll by Forum again gives Olivia Chow a massive lead with Bailao in single digits

Chow 34% (-2)
Saunders 12% (-6)
Matlow 12% (+2)
Hunter 10% (nc)
Bailao 9% (+2)
Bradford 7% (+1)
Other 15% (+1)

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2023/05/21/olivia-chow-has-untouchable-lead-in-final-weeks-of-torontos-mayoral-campaign-new-poll-finds.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Davenport will be tricky to predict. On the one hand, it is the most left wing ward in the city, so you'd think Olivia would win it easily. On the other hand, it's Bailao's ward. Hard to see Bailao winning it, unless she somehow wins the election, though.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Davenport will be tricky to predict. On the one hand, it is the most left wing ward in the city, so you'd think Olivia would win it easily. On the other hand, it's Bailao's ward. Hard to see Bailao winning it, unless she somehow wins the election, though.

With current city-wide polling numbers, I'd have to imagine Chow wins it. I'm sure Bailao will get some favourite son (daughter?) support here, but like you said it's also the most left-wing ward.

[Benjamin Frank]

Off topic, but since I brought it up here to begin with. This is odd to me: days after securing the removal of Mississauga from Peel (or securing the dissolution of Peel) and all the work that entails for Mississauga, Bonnie Crombie has formed an 'exploratory committee' to run for the Provincial Liberal leadership.

I guess she regards removing Mississauga from Peel as the crowning jewel of her mayoralty, but I can hardly see her running for the Liberal leadership on it.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9714486/bonnie-crombie-mississauga-liberal-leadership-committee/

[toaster]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic"??? Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

The Irish have always been white ethnic.  Especially in Canada given the Fenian history, they were the working class poor (which explains their Labour/NDP ties). 

[DL]

Irish might have been seen as “ethnic” about 100 years ago. In 2023 being of Irish descent is about as “ethnic” as being Scottish or Welsh. Unless you moved to Canada from Ireland in the last couple of years - you are probably "a bit of Irish, a bit of Scottish, a bit of English, a bit of this a bit of that..."

[Hatman 🍁]

TIL I'm an ethnic White! (Though, I doubt Irish Protestants count)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic"??? Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

The Irish have always been white ethnic.  Especially in Canada given the Fenian history, they were the working class poor (which explains their Labour/NDP ties). 

Yeah the fenian stuff is hardly a factor in Canadian politics of 2023. Irish Canadians are even more assimilated than their American counterparts, to the extent Irish Catholics still lean left it's more a matter of them being more urbanized than many other white groups, not because they're "ethnic"

[Upper Canada Tory]

Is it just me, or do some of Olivia Chow's numbers regarding housing don't really add up?

She wants to build 25,000 rental homes using $404 million in revenue over 8 years?  (So $16,000 per rental home? This seems like this would cover a tiny percentage of how much it costs to build a residential property)
https://www.oliviachow.ca/olivia_chow_to_create_25000_new_homes

She also wants to use the CMHC's Housing Accelerator Fund, municipal bonds (aka debt) and net operating income of the rent generated by the new rental housing to fund these projects, however also provides no tentative numbers for this, which makes it just seem like a gamble of promising things on which she has a slim chance of delivering. The homes are also meant to be rent controlled, so I'm not sure if that will bring in enough revenue to fund the whole thing.

[adma]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic"??? Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

The Irish have always been white ethnic.  Especially in Canada given the Fenian history, they were the working class poor (which explains their Labour/NDP ties). 

Yeah the fenian stuff is hardly a factor in Canadian politics of 2023. Irish Canadians are even more assimilated than their American counterparts, to the extent Irish Catholics still lean left it's more a matter of them being more urbanized than many other white groups, not because they're "ethnic"

Of course, the common factor among the above-cited "white ethnic types" is Roman Catholicism--and you can include Franco-Ontarians in that light; which stands as a reminder of how fundamentally WASPy the dominant political order in Toronto and Ontario long was.  And the longstanding political order was one of Tory Protestantism vs Liberal Catholicism--like in the Ottawa Valley, Scots towns being Tory, and Irish Catholic places like Barry's Bay (or, of course, Franco-Catholic places as well) being Liberal.

Heck, when it comes to Irish Catholic as "white ethnic", there's the comparatively recent emblematic case of JFK as the first Catholic President, which in its day seemed as bold a benchmark as Obama as first Black President half a century later.

[toaster]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic"??? Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

The Irish have always been white ethnic.  Especially in Canada given the Fenian history, they were the working class poor (which explains their Labour/NDP ties). 

Yeah the fenian stuff is hardly a factor in Canadian politics of 2023. Irish Canadians are even more assimilated than their American counterparts, to the extent Irish Catholics still lean left it's more a matter of them being more urbanized than many other white groups, not because they're "ethnic"

Precisely. Who is saying it's a factor in Canadian politics of 2023?  It's just a way to identify a group of people who exist in Toronto who I believe will come out to support Bailao.  It's an easier way to distinguish these groups from the more WASP groups, who don't have that union/labour historical background.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic"??? Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

The Irish have always been white ethnic.  Especially in Canada given the Fenian history, they were the working class poor (which explains their Labour/NDP ties). 

Yeah the fenian stuff is hardly a factor in Canadian politics of 2023. Irish Canadians are even more assimilated than their American counterparts, to the extent Irish Catholics still lean left it's more a matter of them being more urbanized than many other white groups, not because they're "ethnic"

Precisely. Who is saying it's a factor in Canadian politics of 2023?  It's just a way to identify a group of people who exist in Toronto who I believe will come out to support Bailao.  It's an easier way to distinguish these groups from the more WASP groups, who don't have that union/labour historical background.

Fair enough, I guess my point was more that Irish-Canadians aren't really considered "white ethnic" in the same way that Greeks, Italians, Portuguese etc are, as they are more assimilated and the "union/labour" background is a couple generations removed at this point - as opposed to the post-WW2 white ethnics, who tend to be far less assimilated.

[DL]

Irish-Canadians have English as their mother tongue. Italian-, Portuguese- and Greek-Canadians came to Canada speaking other languages so they had extra steps to assimilate.

In this day and age being Irish-Canadian is about as ethnic as being American-Canadian because your parents were born in Michigan!

[adma]

Precisely. Who is saying it's a factor in Canadian politics of 2023?  It's just a way to identify a group of people who exist in Toronto who I believe will come out to support Bailao.  It's an easier way to distinguish these groups from the more WASP groups, who don't have that union/labour historical background.

Well, yeah, if you're using a middle-class-genteel framework for "WASP groups".  However, you'll find that a lot of Toronto's historical CCF/NDP support had more of a "blue-collar Anglo" foundation--think of East Toronto, think of the Junction-Mt Dennis-Weston corridor, think of Etobicoke's Lakeshore communities, think even of pre-ethnoburban Scarborough. 

In fact, what you'll find federally in Toronto by the time we get to the Pearson/Trudeau years is a pattern of the blue-collar "hyphenateds" (particularly those from the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe) gravitating massively to the Liberals, while the demos most prone to sticking to the NDP were "old Labour" Anglo/Jewish.  There's a reason why Davenport was mega-Liberal for decades under Charles Caccia, while the E Toronto ridings mostly stuck by their NDP guns through the PET years (and the only blip was one of them going briefly Tory in '79-80).  Not to mention that it was the growing strength of Italo-Liberal electorate that led NDP leader David Lewis to lose his seat in '74.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Is it just me, or do some of Olivia Chow's numbers regarding housing don't really add up?

She wants to build 25,000 rental homes using $404 million in revenue over 8 years?  (So $16,000 per rental home? This seems like this would cover a tiny percentage of how much it costs to build a residential property)
https://www.oliviachow.ca/olivia_chow_to_create_25000_new_homes

She also wants to use the CMHC's Housing Accelerator Fund, municipal bonds (aka debt) and net operating income of the rent generated by the new rental housing to fund these projects, however also provides no tentative numbers for this, which makes it just seem like a gamble of promising things on which she has a slim chance of delivering. The homes are also meant to be rent controlled, so I'm not sure if that will bring in enough revenue to fund the whole thing.

Yeah the numbers don't really add up. Although it wouldn't necessarily be building homes from scratch, the platform does mention converting underutilized city property to housing, which would cost quite a bit less than having to buy land (although it costs quite a bit of money to convert non-residential properties to residential ones, and you can't mortgage a renovation).

Moreover, it reflects the issue with using subsidized housing as your main solution to the current housing crisis. It costs a lot of money and barely makes a dent in demand. It sure would be nice for the people who actually get those units (whenever that happens to be, not to mention waitlists), but 25,000 new units isn't enough to reasonably bring down prices in the market as a whole when demand is growing significantly faster.

[DL]

Another day and another poll showing Olivia Chow with a massive lead. The Mainstreet "Bailao boomlet" seems to have fizzled already:

Chow 35% (+5)
Bailao 16% (-6)
Saunders 12% (+2)
Matlow 10% (-4)
Furey 9% (+2) !
Bradford 6% (+2)
Hunter 5% (-4)

The debate last night on TVO went very well for Chow. The other five candidates mainly just personally attacked each other while she stayed above the fray. One month to go and I don't see anyone consolidating the non-Chow vote. If anything its getting even more fragmented!

Seeing Furey at 9% is interesting. He is a far-right crackpot endorsed by Jordan Peterson and by anti-vax nutbars. If he starts consistently polling ahead of Bradford in high single digits he could get into a debate and create even more chaos on the right!


https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/chow-s-lead-grows-amid-lively-fight-for-2nd-place-in-toronto-mayoral-race-poll-1.6414256?fbclid=IwAR1C8Uoo_OC4S6PUxiUoHMMl5gqZ8XVkhj0ok8YN4AuSilV0QCnEoofiMH8

[Hatman 🍁]

New Forum poll:

Chow 34 (nc)
Saunders 14 (+2)
Matlow 12 (nc)
Bailão 9 (nc)
Hunter 9 (-1)
Furey 9 (new)
Bradford 5 (-2)

And Liaison Strategies:

Chow 30 (+1)
Saunders 14 (-3)
Hunter 14 (-1)
Matlow 11 (nc)
Bailão 10 (+2)
Bradford 10 (nc)
Furey 3 (nc)


I'd consider Furey to be one of the major candidates now. It's not just MSR weirdness anymore.

[DL]

I have said from the start that in order for Olivia Chow to lose, someone else has to win and so far all the other candidates have been flops.

"Mad Brad" Bradford has proven a total turnoff and can't get out of single digits.

"Posh Josh" Matlow only seems to appeal some wealthy public intellectuals in Forest Hill and Rosedale and as his support erodes it can only favour Chow who would be his supporters default second choice.

One hears rumours that "Blah Bailao" has lots of money, but so far it doesn't appear to be doing her any good. Money only makes a difference when you have a product that anyone wants to buy and she comes across like a dull, humourless bank manager lecturing on why you don't qualify for a loan.

Saunders is so dull I can't think of a nickname for him yet (maybe "ponderous saunders") - and he mainly just attacks bike lanes. He is seen as part of the status quo.

Mitzie Hunter is going no where and as for "Furious Furey" its hard to see him getting past the 8-9% of Torontonians who take the lead from the Toronto Sun and believe anti-vax conspiracy theories

[adma]

Myself, I'm waiting until the signs come up before taking a measure of what's *really* happening (when *do* they come up, anyway?)--sort of like how one could tell off the bat in '03 that Miller & Tory were the frontrunners and Hall was leadfooted...

[DL]

Signs go up starting June 1

[Hatman 🍁]

MSR poll

Chow 32 (-3)
Bailão 16 (n/c)
Saunders 12 (n/c)
Matlow 10 (nc)
Furey 9 (nc)
Hunter 7 (+2)
Bradford 4 (-2)
Brown 4 (+2)

Not much change. Perhaps Brown is cutting into Chow's lead slightly because a few progressives think Chow has got this in the bag?

[DL]

MSR poll

Chow 32 (-3)
Bailão 16 (n/c)
Saunders 12 (n/c)
Matlow 10 (nc)
Furey 9 (nc)
Hunter 7 (+2)
Bradford 4 (-2)
Brown 4 (+2)

Not much change. Perhaps Brown is cutting into Chow's lead slightly because a few progressives think Chow has got this in the bag?

Mainstreet notes that the undecideds are dropping too - which points to more solidification. I have to chuckle at seeing that jerk Bradford now about to fall behind Chloe Brown!

[Linus Van Pelt]

Kinda hoping the centre and right don't consolidate so we get some maps of the city that are more interesting than usual.