Toronto Mayoral By Election

[DL]

I've looked at the Mainstreet crosstabs and what's even more encouraging for Olivia Chow is that she has her biggest leads among those over 65 and among those with university educations - exactly the kinds of people most likely to vote in a low turnout election! PS: she is also way ahead in Scarborough

[Hatman 🍁]

Kinda hoping the centre and right don't consolidate so we get some maps of the city that are more interesting than usual.

There might need to be some consolidation, as Olivia might be on her way to winning every ward.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Kinda hoping the centre and right don't consolidate so we get some maps of the city that are more interesting than usual.

There might need to be some consolidation, as Olivia might be on her way to winning every ward.

How much of a factor does name recognition play into Chow's polling leads? It wouldn't really matter either way unless someone gets within striking distance of her, which no one is at the moment. But I'd imagine that in an election like this with relatively low public interest, Olivia Chow being easily the most well-known name out of the "serious six" would lead to some low-information respondents picking her out of the prompts but not necessarily turning out. We see this phenomenon sometimes in leadership election polls, for example.

[DL]

Mark Saunders also has high name recognition but it isn’t helping him and Olivia’s support is rising not falling. Her name recognition was not foregone conclusion either. She has been totally out of the public eye for the last 9 years

[brucejoel99]

Mark Saunders also has high name recognition but it isn’t helping him and Olivia’s support is rising not falling. Her name recognition was not foregone conclusion either. She has been totally out of the public eye for the last 9 years

Left's bizarro Danielle Smith

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mark Saunders also has high name recognition but it isn’t helping him and Olivia’s support is rising not falling. Her name recognition was not foregone conclusion either. She has been totally out of the public eye for the last 9 years

True, Saunders is also well-known

[Hatman 🍁]

Kinda hoping the centre and right don't consolidate so we get some maps of the city that are more interesting than usual.

There might need to be some consolidation, as Olivia might be on her way to winning every ward.

How much of a factor does name recognition play into Chow's polling leads? It wouldn't really matter either way unless someone gets within striking distance of her, which no one is at the moment. But I'd imagine that in an election like this with relatively low public interest, Olivia Chow being easily the most well-known name out of the "serious six" would lead to some low-information respondents picking her out of the prompts but not necessarily turning out. We see this phenomenon sometimes in leadership election polls, for example.

I think some of it is name recognition. Let's face it, Chow is a household name, way more well known than Saunders. How many people are answering the polls and picking her because of her name but aren't going to actually vote? We'll find out. Chow's lead is so large now, that it's shouldn't matter.

Speaking of her lead, here is the newest Forum poll:

Chow 38 (+4)
Saunders 13 (-1)
Matlow 12 (nc)
Furey 10 (+1)
Bailão 8 (-1)
Hunter 7 (-2)
Bradford 5 (nc)

Furey continues to grow his support as conservatives are duped into believing he is the only one that can stop Chow. Olivia should be thanking Conrad Black for his endorsement of him.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Furey continues to grow his support as conservatives are duped into believing he is the only one that can stop Chow. Olivia should be thanking Conrad Black for his endorsement of him.

I don't think conservatives think only Furey can stop Chow, it's more that Saunders probably can't, and he has little else going for him (other than the "I can stop crime because I'm a cop" thing, a fairly weak message which he has failed to land, even among conservatives). Add to that the conservative endorsements of Furey, Conrad Black as you mentioned as well as fairly high-profile people like John Baird and Roman Baber, and I think you get a situation of "Chow's gonna win anyway, might as well vote for someone I actually like"

[adma]

Furey continues to grow his support as conservatives are duped into believing he is the only one that can stop Chow. Olivia should be thanking Conrad Black for his endorsement of him.

I don't think conservatives think only Furey can stop Chow, it's more that Saunders probably can't, and he has little else going for him (other than the "I can stop crime because I'm a cop" thing, a fairly weak message which he has failed to land, even among conservatives). Add to that the conservative endorsements of Furey, Conrad Black as you mentioned as well as fairly high-profile people like John Baird and Roman Baber, and I think you get a situation of "Chow's gonna win anyway, might as well vote for someone I actually like"

Yeah, it's more like to a certain breed of self-styled "thinking" conservative, Furey's the only clear, principled choice.  It's who they'd want--or maybe even more to the point, his ideas are what they'd want--regardless of whether he can stop Chow or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Liaison poll:

Chow 35 (+5)
Saunders 14 (nc)
Matlow 11 (nc)
Hunter 11 (-3)
Bailão 9 (-1)
Bradford 7 (-3)
Furey 6 (+3)

More evidence Furey is rising, though in this case it's coming to the detriment of Bradford. Chow continues to rise, and she's peeling it off the centre-left vote (though not from Matlow, interestingly), surprisingly.

[DL]

New Liaison poll:

Chow 35 (+5)
Saunders 14 (nc)
Matlow 11 (nc)
Hunter 11 (-3)
Bailão 9 (-1)
Bradford 7 (-3)
Furey 6 (+3)

More evidence Furey is rising, though in this case it's coming to the detriment of Bradford. Chow continues to rise, and she's peeling it off the centre-left vote (though not from Matlow, interestingly), surprisingly.

As much as I don’t like to take a victory lap less than three weeks from the election it seems increasingly unlikely that anyone can catch Chow. The only question now is her margin of victory

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen late minute surges before, so I'm not as confident as you. If John Tory endorses Bailao, I think things could really shake up. Having said that, I wouldn't want to be supporting any other candidate right now.

[DL]

I've seen late minute surges before, so I'm not as confident as you. If John Tory endorses Bailao, I think things could really shake up. Having said that, I wouldn't want to be supporting any other candidate right now.

Would that matter? FWIW in 2010 polls said David Miller would have won if he’d run again. He endorsed Joe Pantalone and it did Joe no good whatsoever and he ended up with 9% of the vote. People in Toronto want change not continuity

[adma]

The ensh**ttification of electioneering--a convicted pyramid-scheme fraudster spams the streets and the media, some suspect as a money-laundering operation

https://www.blogto.com/city/2023/06/gong-xiao-hua-mayor/

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Off-topic, but I wonder how allowing parties at the local level would affect things. I know BC and Quebec allow parties at the local level, but I don't know enough about municipal politics in those provinces to compare with Ontario. Would love some insight on this

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen late minute surges before, so I'm not as confident as you. If John Tory endorses Bailao, I think things could really shake up. Having said that, I wouldn't want to be supporting any other candidate right now.

Would that matter? FWIW in 2010 polls said David Miller would have won if he’d run again. He endorsed Joe Pantalone and it did Joe no good whatsoever and he ended up with 9% of the vote. People in Toronto want change not continuity

The dynamics are different. The centre right vote want their marching orders.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I see that Olivia Chow has been leading the polls since the beginning. Why is that? What is her platform?

Thanks in advance!

[Benjamin Frank]

Furey continues to grow his support as conservatives are duped into believing he is the only one that can stop Chow. Olivia should be thanking Conrad Black for his endorsement of him.

I don't think conservatives think only Furey can stop Chow, it's more that Saunders probably can't, and he has little else going for him (other than the "I can stop crime because I'm a cop" thing, a fairly weak message which he has failed to land, even among conservatives). Add to that the conservative endorsements of Furey, Conrad Black as you mentioned as well as fairly high-profile people like John Baird and Roman Baber, and I think you get a situation of "Chow's gonna win anyway, might as well vote for someone I actually like"

Yeah, it's more like to a certain breed of self-styled "thinking" conservative, Furey's the only clear, principled choice.  It's who they'd want--or maybe even more to the point, his ideas are what they'd want--regardless of whether he can stop Chow or not.

Furey has no principles.

[adma]

Yeah, it's more like to a certain breed of self-styled "thinking" conservative, Furey's the only clear, principled choice.  It's who they'd want--or maybe even more to the point, his ideas are what they'd want--regardless of whether he can stop Chow or not.

Furey has no principles.

I'm not actively disputing that.  Which is why I used the euphemism of "a certain breed of self-styled "thinking" conservative".

In *his* mind, and in *their* minds, they have "principles".  And I'm beginning to see them drag out the hoary old Olivia'n'Jack co-op tropes as proof that *Olivia* has no principles...

[Hatman 🍁]

I see that Olivia Chow has been leading the polls since the beginning. Why is that? What is her platform?

Thanks in advance!

Primarily name recognition, and then inertia from that point forward. And her opposition is divided, while she is the only candidate with NDP connections running, which gives her a solid base of support.

As for her platform, I'm sure you can Google that if you're truly curious.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Primarily name recognition, and then inertia from that point forward. And her opposition is divided, while she is the only candidate with NDP connections running, which gives her a solid base of support.

As for her platform, I'm sure you can Google that if you're truly curious.

Do you support her candidacy?

[DL]

I see that Olivia Chow has been leading the polls since the beginning. Why is that? What is her platform?

Thanks in advance!

I think its more than just name recognition. Its also about character and reputation. She last ran for public office nine years ago and has been out of the public eye since then. It was not necessarily a "given" that her "name recognition" was going to hold up after all these years. But I think she has a vestigial sentimental appeal to progressives in Toronto from having been a school trustee/councillor/federal MPs from 1986 to 2014, being the widow of the much beloved Jack Layton and having run against Ford in 2014. While she might have been seen as a firebrand 20 years ago, now she is 66 and likely seen as more of a "safe pair of hands" who cannot be bla,med for all the bad stuff in the city over the last 12 years.

It should be noted that in 2014 when she came in third, even after it became clear two months before the election that she had fallen into third place and that John Tory had a better chance of beating Ford, she still retained 23% of the vote on election (in contrast when wishy-washy Barbara Hall's support collapsed in 2003, she ended up with just 9% on election day).

I think she has had an effective campaign stressing housing and affordability and telling personal anecdotes. In contrast Saunders and Bradford have tried to make crime and safety the main issue and that has not panned out. Bailao has been very dull and technocratic

[Hatman 🍁]

Primarily name recognition, and then inertia from that point forward. And her opposition is divided, while she is the only candidate with NDP connections running, which gives her a solid base of support.

As for her platform, I'm sure you can Google that if you're truly curious.

Do you support her candidacy?

Yes, of course.

New polls!

MSR has fiddled with their weights to show some pro Bailão movement that no other pollster has shown:

Chow 29 (-3)
Bailão 20 (+4)
Saunders 13 (+1)
Matlow 11 (+1)
Hunter 9 (+2)
Furey 9 (nc)
Bradford 4 (nc)
Brown 3 (-1)

I have a real fear, as crazy as it may be, that centre-right voters are going to flock to Bailao just because of MSR's polling. No evidence to back this up, but it's giving me some anxiety.

Viewpoints (in field a week ago, done for the left wing think tank the Broadbent Institute)

Chow 37
Saunders 15
Matlow 10
Bailão 10
Bradford 10
Furey 9
Hunter 6

[DL]

Mainstreet also asked a question on whether people are hopeful or pessimistic about the future of Toronto if Olivia Chow becomes mayor. The results lead me to believe that the "anyone but Chow" pool is smaller than people think:

Very hopeful - 25%
Somewhat hopeful - 20%
Don't know - 22%
Somewhat pessimistic - 10%
Very pessimistic - 25%

Basically you have a core of just 25% of Torontonians who are clearly "anti-Chow" (maybe 35% if you at the somewhats)

Looking at the Mainstreet cross tabs on that hope vs pessimism question about OC as mayor it’s interesting that Saunders (67%), Furey (76%) and Bradford (90%) voters tend to be most pessimistic about Chow as mayor. Matlow (52%), Hunter (53%) and (obviously) Chow (98%) voters are mostly hopeful. Bailao voters tilt pessimistic (28% hopeful vs 50% pessimistic) and the vast majority of undecideds don’t know (66%) - which reinforces my view that the undecideds are mostly non-voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Forum poll:

Chow 35 (-3)
Saunders 14 (+1)
Furey 11 (+1)
Bailão 10 (+2)
Matlow 9 (-3)
Hunter 7 (nc)
Bradford 5 (nc)

Bailãomania is still confined to MSR, although it does look like Olivia has peaked.