Toronto Mayoral By Election

[DL]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)

So if Bailao and Matlow are up a combined 10 and Saunders, Bradford and Chow are down a combined 5 - where did the other 5% come from? I guess from "other"...since this is factoring out DK, its not at the expense of that.

I don't quite understand what exactly MSR does to get Bailao so much higher than anyone else. Forum and Liaison are also IVR and they have her in single digits...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is off topic for the Toronto mayoral by election, but since the discussion has largely gone into city almagamation, this is going the other way and probably effects the provincial Liberal leadership race.

Moronic decision, if anything Peel should be amalgamated together because it is filled with near identical McMansions/ugly houses for miles with some retail shops/strip malls sprinkled in between, and there is little which separates Mississauga from Brampton.

Well, technically, there *is*: a big industrial buffer + the 407, power line corridors, etc  Mississauga & Brampton are more discrete than it appears (indeed, the suburbanization of Mayfield West means that Brampton and *Caledon* are on the verge of blurring more than Brampton & Mississauga--that is, unless Brampton winds up annexing everything N to the proposed 413 corridor)

Brampton is very much its own thing anyway. Much of the recent growth in Brampton is pretty unique for the GTA, in that there's been a boom in multi-generational households, chain migration, etc - not to mention foreign students, a group that I would argue Canada admits way more than we should, but that's another topic. Basement apartments are basically being mass-produced in Brampton, that's how a lot of the growth is being accommodated. It's a different type of growth than we are traditionally used to seeing, but Brampton's rapid growth has created basically a seamless transition from a low-density middle-class suburb, to a medium-density working-class city just in the last 10 years. Mississauga's really not the same in that sense, in that its growth is more typical of large suburban cities, and the growing demographic is less ethnically homogenous.

[MaxQue]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)

So if Bailao and Matlow are up a combined 10 and Saunders, Bradford and Chow are down a combined 5 - where did the other 5% come from? I guess from "other"...since this is factoring out DK, its not at the expense of that.

I don't quite understand what exactly MSR does to get Bailao so much higher than anyone else. Forum and Liaison are also IVR and they have her in single digits...

The rumour I heard is they're not properly rotating the names in the question, so Bailao always goes first. I suspect their doing some creative weighting as well, but I don't have anything to back that up.

As for the remaining 5%, that is indeed coming from "other" candidates.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

I don't know how far back in the past you're going, but as of 2021 census, Brampton has a population of 656k. If it weren't right next to Toronto, that would be considered a big city in its own right.

Problem is, it was planned and designed as a suburb. So you have single-detached homes, leafy car-oriented neighbourhoods, strip malls, etc that would be perfect for a sleepy bedroom community, but an absolute nightmare for a city of the size Brampton has grown to become.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)

So if Bailao and Matlow are up a combined 10 and Saunders, Bradford and Chow are down a combined 5 - where did the other 5% come from? I guess from "other"...since this is factoring out DK, its not at the expense of that.

I don't quite understand what exactly MSR does to get Bailao so much higher than anyone else. Forum and Liaison are also IVR and they have her in single digits...

The rumour I heard is they're not properly rotating the names in the question, so Bailao always goes first. I suspect their doing some creative weighting as well, but I don't have anything to back that up.

As for the remaining 5%, that is indeed coming from "other" candidates.

And it seems like some Grits were tricked by the sheer quantity of loaded Mainstreet polls into thinking Bailao is the centrist frontrunner and endorsing her, even though Hunter is an actual partisan Liberal and isn't that far behind Bailao in non-Mainstreet polls

[MaxQue]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

I don't know how far back in the past you're going, but as of 2021 census, Brampton has a population of 656k. If it weren't right next to Toronto, that would be considered a big city in its own right.

Problem is, it was planned and designed as a suburb. So you have single-detached homes, leafy car-oriented neighbourhoods, strip malls, etc that would be perfect for a sleepy bedroom community, but an absolute nightmare for a city of the size Brampton has grown to become.

That's more my point. It felt more like a city than a suburb.

[Hatman 🍁]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)

So if Bailao and Matlow are up a combined 10 and Saunders, Bradford and Chow are down a combined 5 - where did the other 5% come from? I guess from "other"...since this is factoring out DK, its not at the expense of that.

I don't quite understand what exactly MSR does to get Bailao so much higher than anyone else. Forum and Liaison are also IVR and they have her in single digits...

The rumour I heard is they're not properly rotating the names in the question, so Bailao always goes first. I suspect their doing some creative weighting as well, but I don't have anything to back that up.

As for the remaining 5%, that is indeed coming from "other" candidates.

And it seems like some Grits were tricked by the sheer quantity of loaded Mainstreet polls into thinking Bailao is the centrist frontrunner and endorsing her, even though Hunter is an actual partisan Liberal and isn't that far behind Bailao in non-Mainstreet polls

Explanation from MSR:

https://twitter.com/RobertMartinLT/status/1659617161353019408

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

[adma]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

I don't know how far back in the past you're going, but as of 2021 census, Brampton has a population of 656k. If it weren't right next to Toronto, that would be considered a big city in its own right.

Problem is, it was planned and designed as a suburb. So you have single-detached homes, leafy car-oriented neighbourhoods, strip malls, etc that would be perfect for a sleepy bedroom community, but an absolute nightmare for a city of the size Brampton has grown to become.

That's more my point. It felt more like a city than a suburb.

Of course, it also depends on *where* in Brampton we're speaking of; because there *is* a significant older "downtown part", and prior to amalgamation in '74 the former town of Brampton was already closing in on 50,000 people, *much* larger than any older centres in Mississauga.  So any "more city than suburb" impression might be drawn from *that*...

[adma]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

[MaxQue]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

I don't know how far back in the past you're going, but as of 2021 census, Brampton has a population of 656k. If it weren't right next to Toronto, that would be considered a big city in its own right.

Problem is, it was planned and designed as a suburb. So you have single-detached homes, leafy car-oriented neighbourhoods, strip malls, etc that would be perfect for a sleepy bedroom community, but an absolute nightmare for a city of the size Brampton has grown to become.

That's more my point. It felt more like a city than a suburb.

Of course, it also depends on *where* in Brampton we're speaking of; because there *is* a significant older "downtown part", and prior to amalgamation in '74 the former town of Brampton was already closing in on 50,000 people, *much* larger than any older centres in Mississauga.  So any "more city than suburb" impression might be drawn from *that*...

It was Bramalea.

[adma]

I had remote family in Brampton in the past and it's a really wierd place. Doesn't feel suburban at all.

I don't know how far back in the past you're going, but as of 2021 census, Brampton has a population of 656k. If it weren't right next to Toronto, that would be considered a big city in its own right.

Problem is, it was planned and designed as a suburb. So you have single-detached homes, leafy car-oriented neighbourhoods, strip malls, etc that would be perfect for a sleepy bedroom community, but an absolute nightmare for a city of the size Brampton has grown to become.

That's more my point. It felt more like a city than a suburb.

Of course, it also depends on *where* in Brampton we're speaking of; because there *is* a significant older "downtown part", and prior to amalgamation in '74 the former town of Brampton was already closing in on 50,000 people, *much* larger than any older centres in Mississauga.  So any "more city than suburb" impression might be drawn from *that*...

It was Bramalea.

If it were around Bramalea City Centre, that might explain things as well--plus another detail which makes GTA suburbia atypical relative to the common N American model: the presence of high-rise apartment and condo blocks.  So to those "expecting" typical suburban low-rise sprawl, the high-rises can come as a shock...

[DL]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)

and now a totally contradictory IVR poll by Liaison Research

Chow 29% (-!)
Saunders 17% (up 2)
Hunter 15% (up 4)
Matlow 11% (down 4)
Bradford 10% (nc)
Bailao 8% (down 4) and in SIXTH place!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters. The ones who live in suburban areas are more conservative and therefore more likely to vote Bailao than Chow, but also more likely to vote Saunders, or even more likely to just not vote - working-class conservatives tend to be VERY low-propensity voters in the absence of someone like Rob Ford. And in downtown areas, the non-college educated vote tends to be quite left-wing, and Olivia Chow is more popular with them.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On the MSR poll justification though, we haven't even pointed out the most obvious hole in the argument - HS-educated voters may be less likely to answer polls, but they're also less likely to turn out.

Anyway yeah I think it's becoming pretty obvious that Bailao's not doing all that well, because outside her blatantly obvious internals, she's not even pulling ahead of Hunter, let alone Saunders. Of course, any poll showing her #2 is enough for her campaign to drop "BAILAO MOST LIKELY TO DEFEAT CHOW" campaign material in an attempt to rally John Tory voters around her. But there was never a real John Tory coalition. In 2014 John Tory just ran as the bland centrist to end the chaos of the Ford era, and 2018 and 2022 may as well have been uncontested. Even Saunders has a better pitch than Bailao, because although conservatives are a minority of voters in Toronto, it's at least a discrete voter segment.

[adma]

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote.

But that also reflects the relative paucity of "true" federal-style Liberal-NDP ridings in the GTA.  That is, in "downscale" seats like Humber River-Black Creek or York South-Weston, the absolute frontloading of the vote in the Liberal camp says everything--it's basically one big carryover from N Davenport.  (But then you have the Scarborough seats, where Mitzie Hunter "inconveniently" occupies that turf which Bailao would like to claim)

[Hatman 🍁]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters. The ones who live in suburban areas are more conservative and therefore more likely to vote Bailao than Chow, but also more likely to vote Saunders, or even more likely to just not vote - working-class conservatives tend to be VERY low-propensity voters in the absence of someone like Rob Ford. And in downtown areas, the non-college educated vote tends to be quite left-wing, and Olivia Chow is more popular with them.

I know by 'college' you mean university educated here, but this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, considering 'college educated' and 'university educated' mean two very different things (in Canada). Especially when it comes to analyzing demographic voting trends and polls. With the education polarization of the electorate these days, college voters are looking more and more like high school educated voters in how they vote.

[adma]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters. The ones who live in suburban areas are more conservative and therefore more likely to vote Bailao than Chow, but also more likely to vote Saunders, or even more likely to just not vote - working-class conservatives tend to be VERY low-propensity voters in the absence of someone like Rob Ford. And in downtown areas, the non-college educated vote tends to be quite left-wing, and Olivia Chow is more popular with them.

I know by 'college' you mean university educated here, but this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, considering 'college educated' and 'university educated' mean two very different things (in Canada). Especially when it comes to analyzing demographic voting trends and polls. With the education polarization of the electorate these days, college voters are looking more and more like high school educated voters in how they vote.

And some may argue that w/the STEM-era priority shift to "path-to-employment" from "path-to-enrichment", even university's more "college-like", in the Canadian sense, than it used to be (and it's a pattern aided and abetted by Ford Nation higher-education policy--not least in how it generates more "hard workin'" Ford voters from even the highest echelons rather than those who carry Laurentian-elite "attitude").

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters. The ones who live in suburban areas are more conservative and therefore more likely to vote Bailao than Chow, but also more likely to vote Saunders, or even more likely to just not vote - working-class conservatives tend to be VERY low-propensity voters in the absence of someone like Rob Ford. And in downtown areas, the non-college educated vote tends to be quite left-wing, and Olivia Chow is more popular with them.

I know by 'college' you mean university educated here, but this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, considering 'college educated' and 'university educated' mean two very different things (in Canada). Especially when it comes to analyzing demographic voting trends and polls. With the education polarization of the electorate these days, college voters are looking more and more like high school educated voters in how they vote.

Damn it, the Americans have corrupted me!

Yes, I meant university, not college. I've actually seen some polls where college educated voters were the most conservative demographic, ahead of both high school and university. Idk if this holds true overall but it intuitively makes sense, because college grads tend to make more money than high school grads, but don't have the leftward cultural shift that comes with university.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Absolute horsecrap. Are the other pollsters not weighting for education as well? Even if they didn't, it wouldn't make that much difference. Plus, HS educated voters are more likely to back right wing populist types, not a boring centrist.

Depends on the kind of "boring centrist" tack, particularly when it's pitted against *ahem* "NDP elitist".  Or in Bailao's case, think of those in her ward who've opted federally for the Libs' Julie Dzerowicz these past few elections--and *that* tends to be weighted in the northern parts of Davenport where mere HS education tends to be more prevalent.

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters. The ones who live in suburban areas are more conservative and therefore more likely to vote Bailao than Chow, but also more likely to vote Saunders, or even more likely to just not vote - working-class conservatives tend to be VERY low-propensity voters in the absence of someone like Rob Ford. And in downtown areas, the non-college educated vote tends to be quite left-wing, and Olivia Chow is more popular with them.

I know by 'college' you mean university educated here, but this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, considering 'college educated' and 'university educated' mean two very different things (in Canada). Especially when it comes to analyzing demographic voting trends and polls. With the education polarization of the electorate these days, college voters are looking more and more like high school educated voters in how they vote.

And some may argue that w/the STEM-era priority shift to "path-to-employment" from "path-to-enrichment", even university's more "college-like", in the Canadian sense, than it used to be (and it's a pattern aided and abetted by Ford Nation higher-education policy--not least in how it generates more "hard workin'" Ford voters from even the highest echelons rather than those who carry Laurentian-elite "attitude").

If by the Ford government's post-secondary policy you're referring to their promotion of college and trades, I actually think it's a good idea beyond partisan considerations. I don't think a 4+ year undergraduate degree should be a prerequisite for entering the middle class when a 2 year college degree can give one enough competency to perform plenty of jobs. The devaluation of university education is a well known phenomenon. I spent five years getting an undergraduate degree, and now work in a field that is completely unrelated, all my university education did was helped me get my foot in the door as a new grad (because HR managers use it as a filter for applicants, even if a degree isn't actually necessary for the job) - at most, it improved my writing skills. But if it weren't for the overwhelming social pressure of getting a university degree, and the job market's saturation of undergrad degrees, I might have chosen otherwise and been better off.

That's not to say university educations aren't valuable in their own right, because the purpose of university isn't simply about getting a job - but that's what it's become for 90% of students, sadly. The fact that there's increasingly pressure for kids to get master's degrees, even if they have no real interest in pursuing that field at a very advanced level, I think is a very regrettable phenomenon.

But obviously there's partisan calculation there too, in that conservatives benefit electorally from having more people in the building trades as opposed to liberal arts, for example.

[toaster]

Davenport is more the exception than the rule though, in that it's one of the very few Liberal-NDP ridings in Canada where the Liberal vote is more downscale than the NDP vote. Both Dzerowicz and Bailao have their support base in the less educated, more working class areas of Davenport (many of whom are Portuguese, which no doubt helps Bailao). But that's more due to the particular nature of Davenport. Overall, I don't think Bailao is particularly strong with non-college voters.

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the 1980s didn’t Margaret Thatcher dissolve the Greater London Council and put London under her direct rule just to prevent Ken Livingston from being mayor?

No: there was no Mayor of London at the time (the post was created in 2000) and when the GLC was abolished its powers were given the borough councils.¹ The political structure of the GLC was the standard British local government model, with the most senior political figure being the Leader of the Council (who was generally also the leader of the majority group on it).² The GLC had been a bête noir of Conservatives in the outer boroughs, especially those in local government, since its creation in the 1960s, and Margaret Thatcher was, of course, a Barnet MP. Livingstone's antics after he became Leader in 1981 (and also the manner by which he became Leader: he wasn't actually the Labour group leader during the 1981 elections, but instead couped him out immediately afterwards) The suggestion that it simply be abolished was encouraged by the fact that most of its various administrations really struggled (there were only two that could ever be described as reaching even a basic level of competence: the Labour administration headed by Bill Fiske between 1964 and 1967 and the Conservative administration of Sir Horace Cutler between 1977 and 1981), which meant that any public backlash could be expected to be (and was) limited. While they were at it, the Thatcher government got rid of the Metropolitan County Councils as well (on the grounds that they overspend ratepayers money etc), a move that provided useful cover for scrapping the GLC.

<sub>1. Apart from its role in education in inner London (it never had responsibility for education in the outer boroughs) through the Inner London Education Authority, which had a brief experience post-GLC as a directly elected body, before being dissolved itself.
2. A model that actually has its origins in London, where it was pioneered by none other than Herbert Morrison who led the London County Council (the predecessor to the GLC which covered the inner boroughs) in the 1930s.</sub>

[adma]

While they were at it, the Thatcher government got rid of the Metropolitan County Councils as well (on the grounds that they overspend ratepayers money etc), a move that provided useful cover for scrapping the GLC.

Which in *its* own right foreshadowed (and on ideological-sphere grounds, likely influenced/underpinned) the Harris/Ford municipal-reform playbook--IOW don't be surprised if this leads to the Ford Tories abolishing *all* remaining vestiges of county/region-style two-tier government in Ontario, and not just within the GTA. (Which might distress those accustomed to Ontario having a county-centric ordering of the land, not unlike Britain historically or the US presently--then again, younger cohorts who don't read maps or hence haven't internalized such mental geographies probably couldn't care less)

[DL]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic" Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

[adma]

I think Bailao will do well with most of the white-ethnic types - Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, Croatian, even Italians who have stayed in the city (not the Woodbridge conservative types), no matter where in the City they live, not just in Davenport (although the demographics there definitely are favourable for her).

Since when are Irish-Canadians considered "white ethnic" Most would be descendants from people who came to Canada in the 19th century and I once read that the NDP does better among people of Irish descent than any other ethnic group in Canada!

As for other ethnicities mentioned, so much depends on the generation. I have neighbours who have Italian last named who are third generation Canadians who dont speak any Italian and their politics are pretty indistinguishable from the usual Toronto hipster in my 'hood

Not just generation, but obviously, geographical sorting--that is, a 3rd gen Italian-Canadian who's still outerburban is likelier to be Ford Nation than one who opts for inner hipster nabes, even when their family roots lie there.

And re Bailao: once again, the "favourable demographics" are these days largely in the N end, and one has to be *very* careful w/interpreting her '18 municipal result because she didn't really have a viable left-opponent, so a lot of the ward vote defaulted onto her by default.  True, she previously represented the S end of the ward; but w/a viable left-challenger, her "new" primary base of support would likely have been in the N.  (And if it were Bailao vs Bravo, it would have ironically flipped things upside down--Bravo doing best in the territory which Bailao hitherto represented, and Bailao doing best in the territory where Bravo previously municipally ran.)