Toronto Mayoral By Election

[Hatman 🍁]

That poll seems to be an outlier

Forum's last poll had Bailao at 11%, so not sure about that. Remember, MSR is Bailao's pollster...

[adma]

What "traditional Tory endorsements" have there been for Furey?

Well, as has been mentioned he doesn't have any sitting MPPs, but he has some past MPPs and MPs as well as former Senator Vern White (who was Ottawa's police chief, which is interesting that he's not backing another officer in Saunders).

Bradford and Saunders have no endorsements at all, of any kind.

The highest-profile Furey supporter might be former Harper finance minister Joe Oliver (and there's also maverick Liberal Dan McTeague)--but the "traditional Tory endorsement" vibe I get is by and large Toronto Sun-o-sphere.  That is, a particular *kind* of "traditional Tory" realm--maybe more or less equivalent to the "traditional NDP endorsements" Saron Gebresellassi got in '18...

[Hatman 🍁]

Saunders got his first endorsement from Stephen Holyday.

[adma]

It's notable that the left-wing candidates are polling as well as they are. This isn't the only poll showing Chow+Matlow > 40%, in fact most are showing that.

And to think that there were concerns over the left "splitting the vote" and paving the way for a right-wing candidate--and I mean Saunders "right", not Bailao/Bradford "right" (after all, it was Bailao/Bradford very often being pigeonholed as among the left-splitters).  Which suggests that either the "left electorate" is the most determined and enthusiastic this time around, or that it's "left issues" that are currently most captivating to the general electorate...

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll, of course Bailão continues to do well...

Chow 26 (+3)
Bailão 22 (+3)
Matlow 14 (-4)
Saunders 11 (-3)
Bradford 9 (+2)
Hunter 5 (-2)

Keep in mind, 34% are undecided, and they appear to be more likely to be suburban and less educated. So, they will not be breaking for Chow.  Matlow's vote seems to be going to Chow though, so we'll see if he continues to tank.

[lilTommy]

New MSR poll, of course Bailão continues to do well...

Chow 26 (+3)
Bailão 22 (+3)
Matlow 14 (-4)
Saunders 11 (-3)
Bradford 9 (+2)
Hunter 5 (-2)

Keep in mind, 34% are undecided, and they appear to be more likely to be suburban and less educated. So, they will not be breaking for Chow.  Matlow's vote seems to be going to Chow though, so we'll see if he continues to tank.

So Matlow seems to be stuck in a bad spot; If Chow is seen as the best of the left/progressive, he will see that portion of his vote migrate to her. While Bailão is looking more like the choice of the city's moderates, and Matlow will lose any of those who are too conservative/rich for Chow.
Looks like some trading between Saunders and Bradford, if a bulk of the undecides are suburban/less educated, I can see probably Saunders gaining but i'm surprised the conservative/Fordnation haven't found a home yet?
I don't automatically think suburban/less educated won't vote chow; the NDP has done very well in areas like Humber River - Black Creek (holding the provincial seat), previously done well in Northern Scarborough too. Hopefully Chow has learned from 2014 and is going to target pocket-book issues and crime in the more suburban areas. There is no Ford running so that helps, she doesn't need to win here she just needs to do OK, with the crowded field breaking 15% could get her a city-wide win. But that can also apply to Bailão too. 

[adma]

I can see probably Saunders gaining but i'm surprised the conservative/Fordnation haven't found a home yet?

Maybe there aren't as many of those "hardcores" as there may appear?  Maybe a lot of them are willing to default to a perceived "winner" like Bailao, particularly as the Kouvalis strategy might be to target "Ford Liberal" suburbanites.

I don't automatically think suburban/less educated won't vote chow; the NDP has done very well in areas like Humber River - Black Creek (holding the provincial seat), previously done well in Northern Scarborough too. Hopefully Chow has learned from 2014 and is going to target pocket-book issues and crime in the more suburban areas. There is no Ford running so that helps, she doesn't need to win here she just needs to do OK, with the crowded field breaking 15% could get her a city-wide win. But that can also apply to Bailão too. 

Also don't forget how David Miller did well among those demos.

Plus, if she sustains her lead, I'm not sure how strong a "stop Olivia" movement there'd be--that is, maybe now, as opposed to 2014, there isn't quite the same galvanized animus t/w electing the "socialist hordes"...

[DL]

Suburban/less educated = probably won't vote at all

[adma]

Suburban/less educated = probably won't vote at all

As the Fords proved, there can be a way to bait them to the polls.  And it's hard to see who can stoke that Ford magic now, though I suppose Doug's betting on an "Eric Adams" effect on Mark Saunders' part.

Though I'd eye Tony Perruzza as a "low ethno-suburbia" sleeper factor--he won't win, but he could bottom-feed in a way akin to John Nunziata in '03 (that is, Nunziata as a 5% finisher w/certain nodes of strength, rather than Nunziata as serious contender as he seemed earlier in the campaign)

[adma]

https://thelocal.to/toronto-mayor-candidates-2023/?fbclid=IwAR1R15xMVV2urSdeJbG-EK61l570FHPZrtTkvotqP_sPMCg3RsqOC8w5I8k

Notice how some of those being referred to here (most notably Anthony Furey, but also the likes of D'Angelo, Sky, Beals, Acton, Climenhaga) are treated as second-tier.

[Hatman 🍁]

We've had several polls out over the last view days, and they all point to Olivia winning. The latest is from Viewpoints Research, commissioned by the left wing think tank the Broadbent Institute.

Chow 32
Saunders 19
Bradford 15
Matlow 11
Bailão 10
Hunter 6

BradBrad's best poll so far.

If this becomes a Chow vs. Saunders race, I like Olivia's chances. I'm not sure if she could beat Bailão or Bradford in a two-way race.

Also fun to note, Bailão continues to poll badly among all the firms except MSR.

[adma]

We've had several polls out over the last view days, and they all point to Olivia winning. The latest is from Viewpoints Research, commissioned by the left wing think tank the Broadbent Institute.

Chow 32
Saunders 19
Bradford 15
Matlow 11
Bailão 10
Hunter 6

BradBrad's best poll so far.

If this becomes a Chow vs. Saunders race, I like Olivia's chances. I'm not sure if she could beat Bailão or Bradford in a two-way race.

Also fun to note, Bailão continues to poll badly among all the firms except MSR.

If Bailao's bombing this badly, it might be like Barbara Hall '03 all over again (and Hall's endorsing Bailao, natch--a curse, perhaps?)

And somehow, as prospective primary opposition, I can't see Saunders having "big tent" appeal a la John Tory vs David Miller in '03.  That is, he'd more likely remain part of a split opposition spectrum, rather than be a galvanizing "stop Olivia" choice...

[lilTommy]

We've had several polls out over the last view days, and they all point to Olivia winning. The latest is from Viewpoints Research, commissioned by the left wing think tank the Broadbent Institute.

Chow 32
Saunders 19
Bradford 15
Matlow 11
Bailão 10
Hunter 6

BradBrad's best poll so far.

If this becomes a Chow vs. Saunders race, I like Olivia's chances. I'm not sure if she could beat Bailão or Bradford in a two-way race.

Also fun to note, Bailão continues to poll badly among all the firms except MSR.

If Bailao's bombing this badly, it might be like Barbara Hall '03 all over again (and Hall's endorsing Bailao, natch--a curse, perhaps?)

And somehow, as prospective primary opposition, I can't see Saunders having "big tent" appeal a la John Tory vs David Miller in '03.  That is, he'd more likely remain part of a split opposition spectrum, rather than be a galvanizing "stop Olivia" choice...

- The first poll to have anyone over 30%, that's big; with a crowded field Chow looks to be growing in support every poll no matter the pollster
- This poll seems to be an outlier for Bailao and Saunders, but we shall see.
- No one has stepped up into that stop-Chow clear front runner; Matlow is still slowing losing vote but he will likely stabilize at some point (10% ish?) mostly mid-town, progressive but too rich for Chow. Bradford and Bailao will also maintain some base, I still think Bailao will pull in more that what is showing here... so that doesn't leave much room for Saunders either who is the clear Conservative candidate. There is just a really crowded centre-right of centre, which is helping Chow.

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll was not an outlier for Bailao. Have you guys been ignoring me about MSR's bias? Every single MSR poll since mid February has Bailao over 15%, while every non-MSR poll has her below 15%. This is a very clear example of bias.

Speaking of MSR, here are their recent numbers (change since 1 week ago):

Chow 31 (+5)
Bailão 17 (-5)
Matlow 15 (+1)
Saunders 12 (+1)
Hunter 9 (+4)
Bradford 6 (-3)


Bailao is starting to tank, but MSR still has her in second.

Also, kind of weird to see Hunter getting a bump.

[DL]

Mainstreet is out with a brand new poll and the Chow-mentum continues - even after they started to also prompt for Furey (far right crackpot) and Chloe Brown (very leftwing who ran last fall)

Chow 31 (unchanged)
Bailão 15 (-2)
Matlow 10 (-5)
Saunders 12 (unchanged)
Hunter 9 (unchanged)
Furey 7 (first time prompted)
Bradford 6 (unchanged)
Brown 5 (first time asked)

I realize its early and that much can still change but its hard to see who among the non-Chow cast of non-entities are going to break out of the pack and threaten her lead

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So this race is basically Olivia Chow's to lose at this point.

- Matlow's going nowhere, I think he'll hold onto wonky midtown progressives but lose the overall left.

- Bailao is only polling well in her internals, which is a bad sign - the fact that she's getting Liberals and unions lining up to support her and still isn't pulling ahead doesn't bode well.

- Saunders is kind of a dud, it's disappointing that he was the best the right could muster up

- Bradford is a better retail politician but he's a formerly centre-left politician running as a Poilievre impersonator, people can see right through that and it shows. His polling is weak, and I think the right will rally around Saunders.

- I don't know what the hell Mitzie Hunter is doing, and it seems like she doesn't either. Could have been a serious candidate, and she's actually a very strong candidate on paper, but this mayoral campaign is going nowhere.

Debates will matter, so will turnout. Both municipal elections and byelections in Canada are notorious for low turnout, and this is both, so it might come down to GOTV. I think Saunders and Bailao still have an outside shot of consolidating enough of the anti-Chow vote, but it would require things to change. I really didn't think Olivia Chow had a future in politics, but hey, here we are.

[Hatman 🍁]

Right now, Saunders looks to be becoming Chow's main rival on the right. But he's probably too right wing to get enough support to defeat Chow. I think if any of the more moderate candidacies took off, they would've had a good chance to defeat her.

We've had two more polls from the weekend:

Forum:
Chow 36 (+3)
Saunders 18 (+4)
Hunter 10 (+2)
Matlow 10 (-4)
Bailão 7 (nc)
Bradford 6 (-1)
Others 14 (-3)

Liaison Strategies (is this Brad Brad's pollster? His numbers seem inflated with them)
Chow 30 (+3)
Saunders 16 (nc)
Bradford 12 (nc)
Hunter 12 (+2)
Matlow 15 (-1)
Bailão 7 (-2)
Others 9 (nc) - they prompted for Furey (2%) and Perruzza (1%)

Seems to some movement from Matlow to Chow and maybe from the fringe right to Saunders.

- I don't know what the hell Mitzie Hunter is doing, and it seems like she doesn't either. Could have been a serious candidate, and she's actually a very strong candidate on paper, but this mayoral campaign is going nowhere.

I mean, she is surprisingly polling better now than she had been a few weeks ago. If you discount MSR's numbers, she's the main centrist candidate.

[DL]

As tempting as it might be to draw parallels with the Ottawa mayoral election, its important to keep in mind that the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa as presently constituted are very very different. When Ottawa was amalgamated they appended lots of very exurban and rural areas to the city that are very conservative. The Toronto equivalent of those areas are all outside of the City of Toronto in York, Peel and Durham regions. This means that the Toronto electorate is far more left of centre than the Ottawa electorate.   

[Hatman 🍁]

As tempting as it might be to draw parallels with the Ottawa mayoral election, its important to keep in mind that the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa as presently constituted are very very different. When Ottawa was amalgamated they appended lots of very exurban and rural areas to the city that are very conservative. The Toronto equivalent of those areas are all outside of the City of Toronto in York, Peel and Durham regions. This means that the Toronto electorate is far more left of centre than the Ottawa electorate.   

How soon we forget the 2014 mayoral race. Voters were looking for a centrist option to stop Chow and Ford.

[DL]

How soon we forget the 2014 mayoral race. Voters were looking for a centrist option to stop Chow and Ford.

That's not quite what happened in 2014. The election was all about who could stop Ford and Tory managed to position himself as the "dull, safe pair of hands" who was more likely to beat Ford. For the vast majority it wasn't about ideology or about wanting to "stop Chow". It was a totally polarized election where the only ballot question was "who can beat Ford?" - and people felt they didn't have the luxury of voting for Chow.

This election could not be more different what with so many vaguely centrist to rightwing candidates in a circular firing squad vying to be the main opposition to Chow and with there being no real defining issue in the campaign. To the extent that there is any ballot question its "who represents change?" and "who will stand up for Toronto against to the Ford government?"

My only point is that due to the very different municipal boundaries, the City of Toronto is a much more Liberal/NDP electorate than is the City of Ottawa. Pierre Poilievre is MP for an exurban Ottawa seat that is entirely in the City of Ottawa. No federal Tory even came close to winning a seat in the City of Toronto.   

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As tempting as it might be to draw parallels with the Ottawa mayoral election, its important to keep in mind that the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa as presently constituted are very very different. When Ottawa was amalgamated they appended lots of very exurban and rural areas to the city that are very conservative. The Toronto equivalent of those areas are all outside of the City of Toronto in York, Peel and Durham regions. This means that the Toronto electorate is far more left of centre than the Ottawa electorate.   

Yes but not by all that much. The combined CPC+PPC performance was 27% in Toronto and 33% in Ottawa in 2021, and the PCPO got 32% both cities in 2022. Ottawa votes slightly to the right of Toronto thanks to the amalgamation of rural areas, but just barely - and even without Poilievre country, Sutcliffe easily beats McKenney in Ottawa.

If it was a two-way "Chow vs generic centrist" race, generic centrist wins, like Sutcliffe did in Ottawa and Tory did repeatedly in Toronto. But Chow's main contender right now is pretty firmly conservative in a way Sutcliffe and Tory weren't, and Saunders isn't nearly as good a retail politician as Rob or even Doug Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

My only point is that due to the very different municipal boundaries, the City of Toronto is a much more Liberal/NDP electorate than is the City of Ottawa. Pierre Poilievre is MP for an exurban Ottawa seat that is entirely in the City of Ottawa. No federal Tory even came close to winning a seat in the City of Toronto.   

It isn't really necessary to explain to me the differences between the two cities, I could write a book on the subject. Yes, Ottawa has a far higher percentage of voters who will vote to block progressives from winning, but they still exist in Toronto and could've been influential in this election (and may still prove to be). These voters don't all live outside the greenbelt; many are boomers who live in the inner-suburbs of both cities. They have no problem voting Liberal, but when it comes to municipal politics, will not vote for progressives. Anyway, my point- if you will recall is that Mark Saunders is TOO right wing to win over these voters in Toronto, even to block Chow. If you want to compare that with Ottawa, than someone like Saunders could beat someone like Chow. It already happened in 2006.

[DL]

It isn't really necessary to explain to me the differences between the two cities, I could write a book on the subject. Yes, Ottawa has a far higher percentage of voters who will vote to block progressives from winning, but they still exist in Toronto and could've been influential in this election (and may still prove to be). These voters don't all live outside the greenbelt; many are boomers who live in the inner-suburbs of both cities. They have no problem voting Liberal, but when it comes to municipal politics, will not vote for progressives. Anyway, my point- if you will recall is that Mark Saunders is TOO right wing to win over these voters in Toronto, even to block Chow. If you want to compare that with Ottawa, than someone like Saunders could beat someone like Chow. It already happened in 2006.

Sorry if I sounded like i was explaining Ottawa vs Toronto to you personally. I was making the point more for the benefit of people reading this thread who may be from outside of Ontario. Its true that in Ottawa in 2006 someone like Saunders (Larry O'Brian) beat someone like Chow (Alex Munter), but that was 17 years ago and I think you yourself said that its highly unlikely someone as far right as O'Brian could beat an ever so slightly left of centre progressive like Munter in 2022 given how Ottawa has changed over the years. I think its fair to say that Sutcliffe and McKinney are both several quantum leaps to the left of O'Brian and Munter were 17 years ago.

Of course in 2010 in Toronto Rob Ford crushed a middle of the road Liberal named George Smitherman - but I don't see anything like that happening in 2023...and somehow or other back in 2003 a progressive New Democrat named David Miller was elected mayor against a centrist noblesse oblige Tory named John Tory - and I would suggest that the Toronto electorate has likely moved at least a bit to the left over the last 20 years.  

I think Chow has two major advantages this time. First of all it is an incredibly short campaign by municipal election standards which means that the centre-right doesn't have the luxury of spending nine months strategizing over who to get behind and it means that name recognition could be everything. Turnout is likely to be EXTREMELY low - especially in the inner suburbs where I suspect voters will be very disengaged. Second of all, the cast of candidates who are not named Olivia Chow are very very weak. Does anyone seriously think that in the next month we are suddenly going to see  an explosion of Bailao-mania or Bradford-mania?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry if I sounded like i was explaining Ottawa vs Toronto to you personally. I was making the point more for the benefit of people reading this thread who may be from outside of Ontario.

You did bring up Ottawa, and as the only Ottawan participating here, it did seem like it. But anyway, I do agree that Chow is heavily favoured right now. I was skeptical at her chances at first, but her opposition is too divided right now, and it seems unlikely that anyone of them will pull away. Of course, with the Leafs out of the playoffs now, and the debates about to begin, things could change. It is the campaign itself where the polls are most volatile after all.

If Chow continues to lead with no main opponent, voters will treat it as a forgone conclusion and turnout will be quite low. The timing of the election will also ensure a low turnout. How many people will be on vacation on election day?

Anyway, has Toronto moved to the left over the last 20 years? It's hard to say, really. When it comes to mayoral elections, I would say it hasn't. The 2010 mayoral race was a direct repudiation of Miller, and probably contributed to Chow's defeat in 2014. As time goes by, the memory of Miller fades, making progressive candidates palpable again, but his ghost still lingers. People certainly don't want the Ford chaos again either, of course. Toronto still wants a moderate, which is why polls show John Tory would win if he were running. As a progressive, it's a sad prospect, but such is reality. If Chow wins, and is a competent mayor though, then the city will be more comfortable electing progressives in the future.

[Sol]

It's a pity Toronto has such tightly drawn municipal boundaries; the city would be much better off it had boundaries more like Ottawa.