Toronto Mayoral By Election

[DL]

Both Saunders and Furey are shrieking to the far right base that only they can stop Olivia Chow - and this begs the question "does this mean that only Olivia Chow can stop either Mark Saunders or Anthony Furey?"

There has been some speculation about whether any candidates would drop out at this stage - but I think the time for that too have happened would have been last week BEFORE the advance polls and not this coming week after tens of thousands will have already voted.

[Hatman 🍁]

People have been saying that BradBrad plans on dropping out, but I'm not sure how serious they are.

[DL]

People have been saying that BadBrad plans on dropping out, but I'm not sure how serious they are.

Its getting very late in the game to be "planning" to drop out - and his support is now so negligible that it wouldn't make much difference.

[adma]

People have been saying that BadBrad plans on dropping out, but I'm not sure how serious they are.

Its getting very late in the game to be "planning" to drop out - and his support is now so negligible that it wouldn't make much difference.

If he did, I can see him going to Bailao, and his, uh, braintrust going to Furey.

[Hatman 🍁]

People have been saying that BadBrad plans on dropping out, but I'm not sure how serious they are.

Its getting very late in the game to be "planning" to drop out - and his support is now so negligible that it wouldn't make much difference.

Exactly. His 5% is going to help who exactly?


Anyway, new Liaison poll:

Chow 34 (-1)
Saunders 15 (+1)
Matlow 12 (+1)
Bailão 10 (+1)
Furey 9 (+3)
Hunter 9 (-2)
Bradford 6 (-1)

Some trends from the last few polls are clear:
-Chow definitely has hit her ceiling, and is losing a tiny bit of support, possibly to Matlow and/or minor progressive candidates. The "She's going to win anyway, so might as well vote my heart" crowd.
-Saunders is inching up, as some centre-right voters are backing him as the "only candidate that can beat Chow"
-Bailão is also inching up, from the more centrist voters who are hoping the MSR polls are correct, and the she is the only one that can beat Chow.
-Furey continues to see the most movement. The far-right have found their man.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How has the downtown vs suburban divide impacted this election?

[DL]

The Liaison poll also asked voters if they were a "strong supporter" of whoever they were voting for or if they might still change their mind. Results are interesting:

Chow: 56% Strong, 29% might change, 16% DK
Furey: 47% Strong, 42% might change, 11% DK
Saunders: 45% Strong, 34% might change, 20% DK
Bradford: 24% Strong, 46% might change, 31% DK
Bailao: 22% Strong, 35% might change, 43% DK
Hunter: 20% Strong, 46% might change, 34% DK
Matlow: 15% Strong, 50% might change, 35% DK

My takeaway from this is that Chow may win by an even wider margin than the polls are showing. Her support is by far the most solid and the two candidates with the weakest support (Hunter and Matlow) are also the ones whose second choice is most likely to be Chow. The people voting Furey and Saunders are staying put and not going anywhere.

If the election was to turn into "anyone but Chow" vs "anyone but Saunders" - I think Chow would win 60-40. Theoretically Bailao is probably the only other candidate who is not Chow and inoffensive to enough people that she could make a pure two way contest close. But that is a big long shot and it would require a mass movement to her from the hard rightwingers supporting Saunders and Furey which is clearly not happening.

[DL]

How has the downtown vs suburban divide impacted this election?

Not really - at least not in vote intention. Chow leads in every part of the city - maybe by a wider margin downtown than in the 'burbs, but the difference is not huge. Part of why she is winning is that none of her opponents have succeeded in making themselves seen as the champion of the inner suburbs. Saunders and Furey tried to attack bike lanes in a very lame effort to win over suburban car drivers - to no avail. The thing is the so-called suburbs (i.e. Scarborough, North York etc.) are less and less suburban. The centre of North York is full of high rises and feels very high density and Scarborough is becoming more like Queens vis a vis Manhattan as opposed to being true suburbia (you have to go outside Toronto to Mississauga for that)

[toaster]

My takeaway from this is that Chow may win by an even wider margin than the polls are showing. Her support is by far the most solid and the two candidates with the weakest support (Hunter and Matlow) are also the ones whose second choice is most likely to be Chow. The people voting Furey and Saunders are staying put and not going anywhere.

Is this released in the polling or your best guess?  I would think for Matlow, sure, Olivia might be their second choice.. but Mitzie is more of a centrist, my guess is her supporters second choice would be Bailao or Bradford.

[DL]

I have seen polling that shows that a plurality of Hunter voters have Chow as second choice. Many of her voters are from the Black community or see are as leftwing

[adma]

I have seen polling that shows that a plurality of Hunter voters have Chow as second choice. Many of her voters are from the Black community or see are as leftwing

And "leftwing" in the sense that they're not necessarily all that motivated to "stop Chow".  Sort of like David Miller Liberals.

[DL]

The only people motivated to “stop Chow” are hardcore conservatives who are very much a minority in Toronto

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll. Bailaomentum has stopped.


Chow 33 (+4)
Bailão 17 (-3)
Saunders 14 (+1)
Furey 9 (nc)
Hunter 8 (-1)
Matlow 6 (-5) (!)
Brown 5 (+2)
Bradford 3 (-1) lol

Are they beginning to herd?

Anyone take the Toronto Star political compass test? (https://votecompass.thestar.com/toronto2023)

I got:
Chow 70
Matlow 67
Hunter 57
Bailão 51
Bradford 34
Saunders 32
Furey 21



really weird they have Matlow has the furthest left.

[lilTommy]

Huh, mine shows Chow and Matlow basically in the same area?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

[DL]

New MSR poll. Bailaomentum has stopped.


Chow 33 (+1)
Bailão 17 (-3)
Saunders 14 (+1)
Furey 9 (nc)
Hunter 8 (-1)
Matlow 6 (-5) (!)
Brown 5 (+2)
Bradford 3 (-1) lol

Are they beginning to herd?

Actually Chow is up 4 from the previous Mainstreet poll when she was at 29%. Notice that when Chow dropped from 32% to 29% Mainstreet depicted it as a massive change but when she bounces back and gains 4 points - they say its all "just statistical noise"

[Hatman 🍁]

Huh, mine shows Chow and Matlow basically in the same area?

They must've made an adjustment today. I wonder if one of the campaigns complained?

New MSR poll. Bailaomentum has stopped.


Chow 33 (+1)
Bailão 17 (-3)
Saunders 14 (+1)
Furey 9 (nc)
Hunter 8 (-1)
Matlow 6 (-5) (!)
Brown 5 (+2)
Bradford 3 (-1) lol

Are they beginning to herd?

Actually Chow is up 4 from the previous Mainstreet poll when she was at 29%. Notice that when Chow dropped from 32% to 29% Mainstreet depicted it as a massive change but when she bounces back and gains 4 points - they say its all "just statistical noise"

Oops. Fixed.

[adma]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

But if anything, I see the Saunders vs Furey dynamic playing out a little like federal PC vs Reform in the 90s, even in the likely vote distribution (Saunders plumped in "suburban rich areas",  Furey more spread-out and overachieving in old-stock Ford Nation blue-collar white-trash areas)

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Liaison poll:

Chow 30 (-4)
Saunders 16 (+1)
Matlow 16 (+4)
Bailão 11 (+1)
Furey 8 (-1)
Hunter 8 (-1)
Bradford 5 (-1)

More Chow vs. Matlow noise.

[DL]

Another Liaison poll:

Chow 30 (-4)
Saunders 16 (+1)
Matlow 16 (+4)
Bailão 11 (+1)
Furey 8 (-1)
Hunter 8 (-1)
Bradford 5 (-1)

More Chow vs. Matlow noise.

If this poll were correct and Chow won with Matlow second it would certainly be a pretty strong mandate for progressive change. Matlow has been kinda trying to outflank Chow on the left in this campaign.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

I'm not sure how indicative signs are, but for what it's worth I think Saunders is still favoured to do better than Furey. But the reverse is also conceivable now, whereas a month ago it really wasn't.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

But if anything, I see the Saunders vs Furey dynamic playing out a little like federal PC vs Reform in the 90s, even in the likely vote distribution (Saunders plumped in "suburban rich areas",  Furey more spread-out and overachieving in old-stock Ford Nation blue-collar white-trash areas)

I think that a more recent and pertinent analogy to the Saunders vs Furey dynamic is John Tory vs Doug Ford in the 2014 mayoral election. Saunders would be the analogue of John Tory, who also got the 'suburban rich area' vote and Furey would be the analogue of Doug Ford, who swept the 'Ford Nation' vote.

In addition to this, an analogy taking us back to the 2014 mayoral election reminds us how much times have changed in 9 years. Back then, most Torontonians voted for right-of-centre mayoral candidates and Doug Ford was the most right wing of them all. Today, most Torontonians appear to intend to vote for left-of-centre candidates and Doug Ford, who is now premier, is a moderate conservative as opposed to a hardliner.

[adma]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

But if anything, I see the Saunders vs Furey dynamic playing out a little like federal PC vs Reform in the 90s, even in the likely vote distribution (Saunders plumped in "suburban rich areas",  Furey more spread-out and overachieving in old-stock Ford Nation blue-collar white-trash areas)

I think that a more recent and pertinent analogy to the Saunders vs Furey dynamic is John Tory vs Doug Ford in the 2014 mayoral election. Saunders would be the analogue of John Tory, who also got the 'suburban rich area' vote and Furey would be the analogue of Doug Ford, who swept the 'Ford Nation' vote.

In addition to this, an analogy taking us back to the 2014 mayoral election reminds us how much times have changed in 9 years. Back then, most Torontonians voted for right-of-centre mayoral candidates and Doug Ford was the most right wing of them all. Today, most Torontonians appear to intend to vote for left-of-centre candidates and Doug Ford, who is now premier, is a moderate conservative as opposed to a hardliner.

Except that the relative Saunders/Furey shares are likelier to be a la PC/Reform in the 90s (teens/high single digits) than a la Tory/Ford in '14--and in a similar way, Saunders is likelier to be in "polling station winning contention", while Furey'd be more evenly spread out because he's essentially "bottom feeding".

And except for functional, pragmatic purposes, I wouldn't look at Doug Ford as a "moderate conservative" even if Danielle Smith's moved the Overton window in that light.  In fact, his PCs got a lower share of the Toronto vote in '22 than he, himself got mayorally in '14 (and if the '22 PC vote was higher than his '14 mayoral vote in certain jurisdictions, it's because his party's bigger than its leadership)

[Upper Canada Tory]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

But if anything, I see the Saunders vs Furey dynamic playing out a little like federal PC vs Reform in the 90s, even in the likely vote distribution (Saunders plumped in "suburban rich areas",  Furey more spread-out and overachieving in old-stock Ford Nation blue-collar white-trash areas)

I think that a more recent and pertinent analogy to the Saunders vs Furey dynamic is John Tory vs Doug Ford in the 2014 mayoral election. Saunders would be the analogue of John Tory, who also got the 'suburban rich area' vote and Furey would be the analogue of Doug Ford, who swept the 'Ford Nation' vote.

In addition to this, an analogy taking us back to the 2014 mayoral election reminds us how much times have changed in 9 years. Back then, most Torontonians voted for right-of-centre mayoral candidates and Doug Ford was the most right wing of them all. Today, most Torontonians appear to intend to vote for left-of-centre candidates and Doug Ford, who is now premier, is a moderate conservative as opposed to a hardliner.

Except that the relative Saunders/Furey shares are likelier to be a la PC/Reform in the 90s (teens/high single digits) than a la Tory/Ford in '14--and in a similar way, Saunders is likelier to be in "polling station winning contention", while Furey'd be more evenly spread out because he's essentially "bottom feeding".

And except for functional, pragmatic purposes, I wouldn't look at Doug Ford as a "moderate conservative" even if Danielle Smith's moved the Overton window in that light.  In fact, his PCs got a lower share of the Toronto vote in '22 than he, himself got mayorally in '14 (and if the '22 PC vote was higher than his '14 mayoral vote in certain jurisdictions, it's because his party's bigger than its leadership)

I meant in the context of the mayoral race. Saunders, who ran for the Ontario PCs before and worked for the provincial government (and for whom Ford himself has even expressed tacit support for), is much more aligned with Doug Ford while Furey is more aligned with the hardline right. Even when Tory resigned as mayor, Ford said he wanted Tory to remain because a left-wing mayor would be worse, despite having campaigned hard against Tory in 2014 and having quarrelled with him a lot in 2018 over certain issues.

And while this is not relevant to the mayoral race itself so I'll avoid speaking about this on the thread more than necessary, but the Canadian conservative movement is not a binary between Ford and Smith. There are many different ideological positions in between.

[adma]

I think odds are pretty good for Furey to finish a (distant, distant) second. He's running a stronger campaign than the two other right-wing candidates, and Saunders' pitch to "stop Olivia Chow" is only slightly more believable than Furey's pitch to "stop Olivia Chow"

Though a caveat: from my limited observation, I haven't really seen any Furey lawn signage yet--not that there *isn't*, of course, but most of what little non-Chow lawn signage I've seen is either Matlow or Bailao or Saunders (and I haven't really seen *Mitzie Hunter* lawn signage, either, even on a bus venture into Scarborough).

But if anything, I see the Saunders vs Furey dynamic playing out a little like federal PC vs Reform in the 90s, even in the likely vote distribution (Saunders plumped in "suburban rich areas",  Furey more spread-out and overachieving in old-stock Ford Nation blue-collar white-trash areas)

I think that a more recent and pertinent analogy to the Saunders vs Furey dynamic is John Tory vs Doug Ford in the 2014 mayoral election. Saunders would be the analogue of John Tory, who also got the 'suburban rich area' vote and Furey would be the analogue of Doug Ford, who swept the 'Ford Nation' vote.

In addition to this, an analogy taking us back to the 2014 mayoral election reminds us how much times have changed in 9 years. Back then, most Torontonians voted for right-of-centre mayoral candidates and Doug Ford was the most right wing of them all. Today, most Torontonians appear to intend to vote for left-of-centre candidates and Doug Ford, who is now premier, is a moderate conservative as opposed to a hardliner.

Except that the relative Saunders/Furey shares are likelier to be a la PC/Reform in the 90s (teens/high single digits) than a la Tory/Ford in '14--and in a similar way, Saunders is likelier to be in "polling station winning contention", while Furey'd be more evenly spread out because he's essentially "bottom feeding".

And except for functional, pragmatic purposes, I wouldn't look at Doug Ford as a "moderate conservative" even if Danielle Smith's moved the Overton window in that light.  In fact, his PCs got a lower share of the Toronto vote in '22 than he, himself got mayorally in '14 (and if the '22 PC vote was higher than his '14 mayoral vote in certain jurisdictions, it's because his party's bigger than its leadership)

I meant in the context of the mayoral race. Saunders, who ran for the Ontario PCs before and worked for the provincial government (and for whom Ford himself has even expressed tacit support for), is much more aligned with Doug Ford while Furey is more aligned with the hardline right. Even when Tory resigned as mayor, Ford said he wanted Tory to remain because a left-wing mayor would be worse, despite having campaigned hard against Tory in 2014 and having quarrelled with him a lot in 2018 over certain issues.

And while this is not relevant to the mayoral race itself so I'll avoid speaking about this on the thread more than necessary, but the Canadian conservative movement is not a binary between Ford and Smith. There are many different ideological positions in between.

However, in Saunders' case, it works both ways in that the Ford association has put an effective ceiling on *his* support; which is why his bid to be the big-tent stop-Olivia option rings pathetically hollow--that is, the "Tory/Bailao" camp isn't going to be herding under the Saunders umbrella any time soon; given the option, they'd rather stay put out of principle and throw the election to Chow.  And if Saunders sheds right-flank votes to Furey, so be it.

The kind of "moderate conservatism" Saunders represents is that of his only supporter on Council, Stephen Holyday--who *does*, presently, anchor the hard right on Council.  It's just that it's a "suit & tie" kind of hard right; and Premier Ford, *as* Premier, has *always* sought to court that suit-and-tie element (which was also the element that killed Tim Hudak's 2014 provincial election bid).

What Furey represents is more a kind of "movement conservatism"--which, in a way, is more "radical" than specifically "conservative" (and maybe akin to the original vision of PPC had Maxime Bernier not gone off the dogwhistle deep end).  And it's the kind of thing which, like UKIP/Brexit/Reform in the UK, is likelier to skim broad-range votes at the bottom than "contend for power" (and, for that matter, also like UKIP/Brexit/Reform, falter come e-day once voters "come to their senses").