Toronto Mayoral By Election

[DL]

Liaison is out with a final poll in field June 22-23. Chow still way ahead at 31%, Bailao gets a dead cat bounce to 17% and is tied with Saunders who is stalled at 16%

https://liaison-strategies.ghost.io/chow-leads-in-final-days-of-campaign/

[Hatman 🍁]

So it looks like the Tory endorsement did help, but Ford's endorsement of Saunders hasn't. I imagine Bailao's support will continue to rise over the weekend, but will fall short.

[DL]

IMHO Bailao can’t get much beyond high teens because there just aren’t any major pools of votes left for her to consolidate. Chow seems rock solid in the low 30s. Ford’s backing may not lead to any surge for Saunders but it probably consolidates him with the 15% or so of Torontonians who do as they are told by Uncle Doug. The obvious place for Bailao to draw support would be from Bradford but is is now circling the drain at 3% so not much to squeeze there. Soft Hunter or Matlow voters are as likely to go to Chow as as Bailao and the number of genuinely undecided voters is shrinking very rapidly

[adma]

IMHO Bailao can’t get much beyond high teens because there just aren’t any major pools of votes left for her to consolidate. Chow seems rock solid in the low 30s. Ford’s backing may not lead to any surge for Saunders but it probably consolidates him with the 15% or so of Torontonians who do as they are told by Uncle Doug. The obvious place for Bailao to draw support would be from Bradford but is is now circling the drain at 3% so not much to squeeze there. Soft Hunter or Matlow voters are as likely to go to Chow as as Bailao and the number of genuinely undecided voters is shrinking very rapidly

Practically speaking, the best likelihood/hope is for the "soft Chow" contingent, whatever exists of *that*--and moreover, to *generate* such a condition from that apparent rock-solid.  "Hey, you Chow moderates--here's the *real* moderate option!!!"  And who knows what other malicious-operative dirty-trick tactics as reinforcement: convincing "Chow progressives" that Matlow's *really* their man thereby reducing the Chow vote, or continuing to set up Gong as a so-bad-he's-good weapon of mass distraction to draw away the social-media GenZers, etc.  (You can never tell with a dirty trickster like Kouvalis)

[DL]

Robocalls from John Tory telling people to vote for Bailao will explode any pretence tnat she has to being at all progressive

[cinyc]

Maps of the 2014/18/22 Toronto mayoral election by Ward-Subdivision and Ward. This is in beta and takes a relatively long time to load. Alloc formulaically allocates the advance vote to Ward-Subdivisions; ED just shows the election day vote.

As most know, Olivia Chow ran in 2014, and came in third. I expect her coalition this time to be more or less the same.

Click the More Maps button for more maps, including the 2014 maps.

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/international/t-o-mayor-2000s

[adma]

Robocalls from John Tory telling people to vote for Bailao will explode any pretence tnat she has to being at all progressive

Except that the progressives are already baked into Chow (and Matlow).  It's about dislodging the Tory/Chow "fairweathers"...

[jaichind]

Some hope of a stop Chow consolidation although most likely too little too late
https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1672922594192900099

[adma]

Some hope of a stop Chow consolidation although most likely too little too late

Particularly as the Chow-Bailao margin *increased* by one vote.

Meanwhile, Forum Research is showing Chow 29 (down 3), Bailao 20 (up 7), Saunders 15, Furey 11, Matlow 8, Hunter 5, Bradford 3.  So it's no longer just Mainstreet showing Bailao grazing the 20% mark.

[DL]

Hah…Bradford now down to 1%! He is like Tom Jakobek in 2003

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is the final MRS poll

Chow 34 (+4)
Bailão 25 (+3)
Saunders 11 (-1)
Furey 10 (-3)
Matlow 7 (-2)
Hunter 5 (nc)
Brown 2 (nc)
Bradford 1 (-1)

Bailao has completely squeezed the Bradford vote, and has started to peel off Saunders and Furey voters too. Interestingly, Ford's endorsement of Saunders was meaningless. Looks like the Tory endorsement has spooked some progressives into backing Chow.

Liaison:
Chow 31 (+1)
Bailão 17 (+5)
Saunders 16 (nc)
Furey 11 (+2)
Matlow 10 (-3)
Hunter 6 (-1)
Bradford 4 (nc)

[Hatman 🍁]

Pollsters can't resist staying in field for one more day. HERE is the final MSR poll:


Chow 36 (+2)
Bailão 30 (+5)
Saunders 9 (-2)
Furey 8 (-2)
Matlow 8 (+1)
Hunter 5 (nc)
Brown 1 (-1)
Bradford 1 (nc)


So.... this is going to be close. I TOLD YOU SO.  I honestly think it's 50-50 who's going to win at this point. Anxious moments...

[DL]

Liaison also did a final poll conducted Saturday and Sunday. Their final number was Chow 32, Bailao 22, Saunders 15

https://liaison-strategies.ghost.io/bailao-surging-but-chow-remains-in-lead/

[toaster]

IMHO Bailao can’t get much beyond high teens because there just aren’t any major pools of votes left for her to consolidate. Chow seems rock solid in the low 30s. Ford’s backing may not lead to any surge for Saunders but it probably consolidates him with the 15% or so of Torontonians who do as they are told by Uncle Doug. The obvious place for Bailao to draw support would be from Bradford but is is now circling the drain at 3% so not much to squeeze there. Soft Hunter or Matlow voters are as likely to go to Chow as as Bailao and the number of genuinely undecided voters is shrinking very rapidly

Practically speaking, the best likelihood/hope is for the "soft Chow" contingent, whatever exists of *that*--and moreover, to *generate* such a condition from that apparent rock-solid.  "Hey, you Chow moderates--here's the *real* moderate option!!!"  And who knows what other malicious-operative dirty-trick tactics as reinforcement: convincing "Chow progressives" that Matlow's *really* their man thereby reducing the Chow vote, or continuing to set up Gong as a so-bad-he's-good weapon of mass distraction to draw away the social-media GenZers, etc.  (You can never tell with a dirty trickster like Kouvalis)

The Chow moderate I think is the millennial who YES wants property taxes to go way up (because they haven't been able to get into the market), wants the bike lanes, and is social progressive, but also wants to keep the Gardiner and Toronto City Airport and has no other place to park their vote.  When Bailao started campaigning against Chow's property tax increases, that's what moved me away from Bailao - the one thing I didn't like about her is what she made her entire campaign about.  I'm just worried about the loss of the Gardiner and Toronto City airport with Chow, but the wealthy need to pay WAY more in the city - they pay the lowest anywhere in Southern Ontario - NO, other levels of government shouldn't subsidize Toronto's property owners who are the wealthiest in the country (and many of whom don't even live here).  I liked Hunter because she seemed to check all those boxes, but I will never vote for someone who profits from housing (she is a landlord). Still undecided... few hours to decide.

[Sol]

Why would anyone want the Gardiner Expressway?

[DL]

The Chow moderate I think is the millennial who YES wants property taxes to go way up (because they haven't been able to get into the market), wants the bike lanes, and is social progressive, but also wants to keep the Gardiner and Toronto City Airport and has no other place to park their vote.  When Bailao started campaigning against Chow's property tax increases, that's what moved me away from Bailao - the one thing I didn't like about her is what she made her entire campaign about.  I'm just worried about the loss of the Gardiner and Toronto City airport with Chow, but the wealthy need to pay WAY more in the city - they pay the lowest anywhere in Southern Ontario - NO, other levels of government shouldn't subsidize Toronto's property owners who are the wealthiest in the country (and many of whom don't even live here).  I liked Hunter because she seemed to check all those boxes, but I will never vote for someone who profits from housing (she is a landlord). Still undecided... few hours to decide.

FYI, Chow has never said she would do anything to get rid of the City Centre airport - and in any case the mayor would have no power to do that even if he or she wanted to. David Miller was more explicitly anti-airport and during the 7 years he was mayor the airport expanded and got busier and he essentially gave up on the issue. Now its "settled law"

[adma]

The Chow moderate I think is the millennial who YES wants property taxes to go way up (because they haven't been able to get into the market), wants the bike lanes, and is social progressive, but also wants to keep the Gardiner and Toronto City Airport and has no other place to park their vote.

I wasn't even thinking in "millennial-specific" terms when it comes to "Chow moderates"--and TBH I'm not sure how preoccupied w/keeping the Gardiner et al those kinds of bike-laning so-prog urban millennials would be.  Millennial-wise, keeping the Gardiner seems more of an Ontario Proud/Furey-axis thing.

Generally speaking, I think "Chow moderates" that are swayable to Bailao are more along the lines of "Stiles/Dzerowicz" voters in Davenport.

Though I'm also recalling my assessment of the 2013 provincial Liberal leadership race, in how Wynne had the "Red Tories" while Pupatello had the "Blue Liberals".  That'd probably be a good way to look at this race: Chow as the "Red Tory", Bailao as the "Blue Liberal".  (And of course, back in the 70s/80s, Crombie vs O'Donohue, Sewell vs O'Donohue, Sewell vs Eggleton were all "Red Tory vs Blue Liberal" dynamics)

[Krago]

https://twitter.com/addammy1/status/1673179874641453058?s=46&t=YHDSokdw97rav...

[Benjamin Frank]

Toronto Votes 2023 | Mayoral byelection special

Live stream

[Mike88]

Have polls closed already?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

With 1000 of 1400 polls reporting Bailao is leading Chow and Bradford is losing to Chris Sky. Has science gone too far?

[Oryxslayer]

Bailao: 36.8%
Chow: 34.5%
Saunders: 8.2%
Furey: 4.8%
Matlow: 3.7%
Hunter: 2.6%
Brown: 2.6%
Sky: 1.2%
Bradford: 1%

600/1451 Polls

Rapid consolidation or geographic bias to whats reporting? Either way, Mainstreet must be proud.

[Oryxslayer]

Bailao: 37.4%
Chow: 34.1%
Saunders: 8%
Furey: 4.8%
Matlow: 3.9%
Brown: 2.7%
Hunter: 2.6%
Sky: 1.3%
Bradford: 1%

1005/1451 Polls Reporting

[Mike88]

Have polls closed already?

Never mind.

Strong showing from Bailão.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Pretty huge upset if he pulls this through