Toronto Mayoral By Election

[Benjamin Frank]

Doesn't seem to be a thread for this.

According to Wiki, 46 people have already filed to run, and the filing window doesn't even close until May 12. These are by my guess the highest profile:

1.Ana Bailão, Former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022).

2.Brad Bradford. City councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)

3.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Former Liberal member of Parliament (MP) for Whitby (2015–2019). (Now lives in Toronto)

4.Frank D'Angelo, Entrepreneur in the food, restaurant and entertainment industries.

5.Rob Davis, Former TTC vice-chair and city councillor for Ward 28 – York Eglinton (1997-2000)

6.Anthony Furey, Former Toronto Sun columnist and broadcaster.

7.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), Minister of Advanced Education and Skills Development (2018), Minister of Education (2016–2018)

8.Giorgio Mammoliti, Former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (Now very right wing.)

9.Josh Matlow, City councillor for Toronto—St. Paul's (2010–present)

10.Anthony Perruzza, City councillor for Ward 8 York West (2006-2018), City councillor for Ward 7 Humber River—Black Creek (2018-present), NDP MPP for Downsview (1990-1995)

11.Mark Saunders, Former chief of the Toronto Police Service (2015–2020), PC candidate for Don Valley West during the 2022 Ontario election.

[adma]

Beals has no real profile to speak of.

Otherwise, besides the above, the most obvious omission is Brad Bradford (Ward 19 Beaches-East York Councillor)--there's also the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place 2022 candidates (Chloe Brown--a progressive who got a surprising 6% on the back of impressive debate performances--plus right-leaning Blake Acton and Green-leaning Sarah Climenhaga) as well as Chris Saccoccia (aka Chris Sky, notorious anti-mask/vax/lockdown/Soros/etc/etc activist/troll/nuisance)

[Benjamin Frank]

Beals has no real profile to speak of.

Otherwise, besides the above, the most obvious omission is Brad Bradford (Ward 19 Beaches-East York Councillor)--there's also the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place 2022 candidates (Chloe Brown--a progressive who got a surprising 6% on the back of impressive debate performances--plus right-leaning Blake Acton and Green-leaning Sarah Climenhaga) as well as Chris Saccoccia (aka Chris Sky, notorious anti-mask/vax/lockdown/Soros/etc/etc activist/troll/nuisance)

Oops, left out Brad Bradford. the third place finisher in 2022 got 6% of the vote, as you said. I don't think that's very high profile (and obviously 4th and 5th were even lower.)

I could be wrong about Chris Saccoccia but I don't think he'll end up with too many votes. In addition to being an outright conspiracy theorist (he might get a higher share of the vote running for a legislative position than for an executive position), he's also up against Anthony Furey who has similar positions but is more 'respectable.' Giorgio Mammoliti also has similar positions but seems to be a spent force. Frank D'Angelo also seems to be a populist right winger.

I'll correct those two things.

[Benjamin Frank]

I would guess

Brad Bradford, Mitzie Hunter and Josh Matlow all had/have connections to the Provincial/Federal Liberal Party. Celina Caesar-Chavannes endorsed the Conservative in 2019 in her Whitby riding, a case of seemingly burning bridges.

Mark Saunders is clearly the candidate for Doug Ford.
Rob Davis ran for the P.Cs in the 1996 byelection to replace Bob Rae, but is likely a spent force.

Anthony Furey, Giorgio Mammolitti and probably Frank D'Angelo are the PPC/populist right wing candidates.

Ana Bailão is a wonkish centrist independent.

Anthony Perruzza seems to be the only candidate associated with the NDP running so far, but I'm not sure if he'd be their first choice. Former M.P, city councilor and mayoral candidate Olivia Chow, MPP and former city councilor Krysten Wong Tam and former federal nominee and present city councilor Alejandra Bravo are apparently all weighing bids.

[DL]

Anthony Perruzza seems to be the only candidate associated with the NDP running so far, but I'm not sure if he'd be their first choice. Former M.P, city councilor and mayoral candidate Olivia Chow, MPP and former city councilor Krysten Wong Tam and former federal nominee and present city councilor Alejandra Bravo are apparently all weighing bids.

Apparently Olivia Chow will announce next week. KWT and Bravo are not running

[Upper Canada Tory]

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

[Poirot]

At least 46 people are running!? Is the Rhino party helping to get a long ballot or the candidates are all reaaly seeking the job.

[Benjamin Frank]

At least 46 people are running!? Is the Rhino party helping to get a long ballot or the candidates are all reaaly seeking the job.

31 candidates ran in 2022 but there was no really competitive challenger to John Tory.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

At least 46 people are running!? Is the Rhino party helping to get a long ballot or the candidates are all reaaly seeking the job.

Not a Rhino situation. Like Benjamin Frank said, it's not uncommon for dozens of unserious candidates to run in Toronto mayoral elections. The requirements/qualifications set a very low bar. If you're a Canadian citizen who lives or owns land in Toronto, has $200, and can convince 25 people to sign your nomination papers, you too can get your name on the ballot!

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

[adma]

Beals has no real profile to speak of.

Otherwise, besides the above, the most obvious omission is Brad Bradford (Ward 19 Beaches-East York Councillor)--there's also the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place 2022 candidates (Chloe Brown--a progressive who got a surprising 6% on the back of impressive debate performances--plus right-leaning Blake Acton and Green-leaning Sarah Climenhaga) as well as Chris Saccoccia (aka Chris Sky, notorious anti-mask/vax/lockdown/Soros/etc/etc activist/troll/nuisance)

Oops, left out Brad Bradford. the third place finisher in 2022 got 6% of the vote, as you said. I don't think that's very high profile (and obviously 4th and 5th were even lower.)

I could be wrong about Chris Saccoccia but I don't think he'll end up with too many votes. In addition to being an outright conspiracy theorist (he might get a higher share of the vote running for a legislative position than for an executive position), he's also up against Anthony Furey who has similar positions but is more 'respectable.' Giorgio Mammoliti also has similar positions but seems to be a spent force. Frank D'Angelo also seems to be a populist right winger.

I'll correct those two things.

I agree that it's stretching things to call Chloe Brown "high profile"; but even if 6% may not appear to be much, the consensus is more that it was due to lack of means--that is, had she not appeared in debates, impressed and "gotten buzz", she likely would have been one of those grazing-1% no-names.  Besides, what I meant was more along the lines of Brown/Acton/Climenhaga having *more* profile, if by default, than Beals.  Not about their "viability".

As for Chris Sky: he's a loud totem for the "troll vote".  That is, he could wind up as the Faith Goldy of the race, and don't be surprised if he gets more votes than either Furey/D'Angelo/Mammoliti in the process...

[adma]

I would guess

Brad Bradford, Mitzie Hunter and Josh Matlow all had/have connections to the Provincial/Federal Liberal Party. Celina Caesar-Chavannes endorsed the Conservative in 2019 in her Whitby riding, a case of seemingly burning bridges.

Mark Saunders is clearly the candidate for Doug Ford.
Rob Davis ran for the P.Cs in the 1996 byelection to replace Bob Rae, but is likely a spent force.

Anthony Furey, Giorgio Mammolitti and probably Frank D'Angelo are the PPC/populist right wing candidates.

Ana Bailão is a wonkish centrist independent.

Anthony Perruzza seems to be the only candidate associated with the NDP running so far, but I'm not sure if he'd be their first choice. Former M.P, city councilor and mayoral candidate Olivia Chow, MPP and former city councilor Krysten Wong Tam and former federal nominee and present city councilor Alejandra Bravo are apparently all weighing bids.

I'd put Bailao in with the first Liberal-affiliated bunch.  And particularly in the event that no NDPer of better stature than Perruzza runs, Matlow--who's more of a leftish maverick than the other Lib-affiliated candidates--is the likeliest go-to for progressive voters seeking a viable option.

And while Saunders may appear to have "Ford candidate" advantage, remember how jockeying by the others (particularly the Bradford/Bailao "establishment axis") can steal from that.

And of course, Chris Sky is the extreme-case PPC/populist-right standard-bearer to go with the above.

[adma]

At least 46 people are running!? Is the Rhino party helping to get a long ballot or the candidates are all reaaly seeking the job.

31 candidates ran in 2022 but there was no really competitive challenger to John Tory.

*65* candidates ran in 2014, FWIW.

[adma]

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

Most observers would bump Bradford from 2nd to 1st tier.  He's always had a vibe of a potential "John Tory anointed successor" about him.

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I think Furey's one of those candidates who seems more of a factor through the wonkish filter of political Twitter than he'd be in actuality.

And let's remember that it's more complicated than a Saunders-vs-a-split-left race--just because Saunders is a candidate of the right doesn't make him the candidate of the John Tory big tent; and you can be sure that Bailao and Bradford in particular will make (and *are* making) strong bids for *that* vote.  That is, *they're* more likely to be injurious to Saunders than Furey is...

[VPH]

I hope Ana Bailão wins.

[Mike88]

I hope Ana Bailão wins.

A Portuguese-born citizen governing Canada's most populated city would be quite an achievement. Is she more Liberal or PC aligned?

[adma]

I hope Ana Bailão wins.

A Portuguese-born citizen governing Canada's most populated city would be quite an achievement. Is she more Liberal or PC aligned?

Liberal.  (Otherwise she wouldn't have had a chance in Davenport.)

[DL]

I hope Ana Bailão wins.

Her top campaign advisor is an ultra rightwing, racist Trump, sympathizer - caveat emptor

[adma]

I hope Ana Bailão wins.

Her top campaign advisor is an ultra rightwing, racist Trump, sympathizer - caveat emptor

 Nick Kouvalis *could* be a reason why there's an element of wouldbe "Ford/Bailao alliance" to her announced support of an Ontario Science Centre move to Ontario Place.

[VPH]

She's Portuguese-Canadian (which is my main reason for backing her) and a Liberal herself so I am not too worried about her advisor. Wasn't Kouvalis Tory's campaign manager or something at some point anyway?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yeah I wouldn't read into Bailao adding Kouvalis to her campaign team too much. Brad Bradford, another left-leaning councillor, is being advised by Kory Teneycke, who among other things was a staffer for Harper and was the brains behind Doug Ford's 2018 campaign. I don't think either of them are turning a new leaf and becoming Tories, it's more that when you have a competitive nonpartisan election it helps to have strategists who can figure out a strategy to appeal to voters who normally might not vote for you.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

Most observers would bump Bradford from 2nd to 1st tier.  He's always had a vibe of a potential "John Tory anointed successor" about him.

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I think Furey's one of those candidates who seems more of a factor through the wonkish filter of political Twitter than he'd be in actuality.

And let's remember that it's more complicated than a Saunders-vs-a-split-left race--just because Saunders is a candidate of the right doesn't make him the candidate of the John Tory big tent; and you can be sure that Bailao and Bradford in particular will make (and *are* making) strong bids for *that* vote.  That is, *they're* more likely to be injurious to Saunders than Furey is...

Point taken on both, admittedly it was a little uncharitable to place Bradford along with Perruzza and Furey. As for Saunders, I agree it's not a clean left/right split (it never is in Toronto politics), but he seems to be making crime and public safety the main part of his pitch to build up a suburban conservative coalition, and while Bradford and Bailao may make a convincing pitch to suburban tories on other issues, Saunders probably has them beat on this issue than crime.

Now keep in mind, when I say "Suburban tories", I don't mean all or even most John Tory voters. Suburbanites who actually lean right are outnumbered by Liberal-leaning "Trudeau-Tory" centrist suburbanites, and Bradford and Bailao (and Hunter in Scarborough, she might struggle with the packed field in the other boroughs though) are a better fit for those John Tory voters. Matlow seems to be hitching his wagon to more left-wing, "Trudeau-Horwath" type voters, and Chow is obviously the best fit for loyal Dippers - she's kinda old news at this point, but name recognition and past support can go a long way in these kinds of races.

[Upper Canada Tory]

She's Portuguese-Canadian (which is my main reason for backing her) and a Liberal herself so I am not too worried about her advisor. Wasn't Kouvalis Tory's campaign manager or something at some point anyway?

Better to back candidates based on policy & qualifications, not ethnicity and/or country of birth.

My main issue with Bailão is that she wants to make the province pay entirely for the Gardiner and DVP to save money to pay for TTC. Seems unfair that the province has to pay for two roads entirely in Toronto city proper.

Also, I'm sceptical of her ability to do anything regarding affordable housing. She has served in some housing related portfolios (TCHC, Chair of the Affordable Housing Committee) but seems to have accomplished very little in her time in these positions and at city council.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I have mixed views of Ford's performance as Premier of Ontario but Saunders being a 'Ford Tory' is probably preferable to Furey's 'Poilievre Tory' leanings as far as Toronto politics are concerned.

I think one asset Saunders has that people often overlook is that he's had a lot of experience in different fields of the public service. He was Toronto's Police Chief, as you mentioned, but he was also on the province's COVID vaccine task force and was named special advisor for the Ontario Place renovation. He is probably uniquely positioned to deal with a variety of different issues, compared to most of the other candidates.

Also, I think candidates like Furey won't take away too much of the right wing vote from Saunders. As some have already mentioned, Furey seems to be a candidate of the Twitter lobby, as I like to call them, and he isn't as well known as Saunders. He also doesn't have the qualifications for dealing with crime that Saunders does, which, as you rightly pointed out, is a winning issue for conservatives at the moment.

At the same time, Furey did appear in an interview on CP24, some maybe his attempts to put his name out on more mainstream news networks will end up with him becoming more of a threat for Saunders. Who knows?

[Upper Canada Tory]

That said, this time is a little different because it's an open seat and there's really no obvious successor to John Tory, so everyone thinks they have a shot. I think Bailao, Chow, Hunter, Matlow and Saunders can be considered the "tier one" candidates who have an actual shot. Bradford, Furey and Perruzza could put in a serious run, but won't win. Caesar-Chavannes, Climenhaga, D'Angelo, Davis, Mammoliti, and Sky are notable in some vague way, but I wouldn't take them seriously.

Most observers would bump Bradford from 2nd to 1st tier.  He's always had a vibe of a potential "John Tory anointed successor" about him.

I haven't been following the Toronto mayoral race too closely as of yet, but the candidate I find the most interesting at the moment is Mark Saunders. I'll wait for policy platforms to be released though.

Conservatives certainly seem to be rallying around Saunders, or they almost certainly will, because he's the only conservative-aligned candidate with a serious shot. As a former police chief he's uniquely positioned to run on crime as the main issue, which tends to be a winning issue for the right. Now, his time as police chief was controversial, but mostly with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

That said, he does need to consolidate the right and count on a split left to have a shot, and while the latter is almost guaranteed, the former is complicated by Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey. He's also running, but whereas Saunders is more of a "Ford Tory", Furey is more of a "Poilievre Tory", if that makes sense. Furey doesn't have a realistic shot, but he does have enough of a profile and following that he might split the vote.

I think Furey's one of those candidates who seems more of a factor through the wonkish filter of political Twitter than he'd be in actuality.

And let's remember that it's more complicated than a Saunders-vs-a-split-left race--just because Saunders is a candidate of the right doesn't make him the candidate of the John Tory big tent; and you can be sure that Bailao and Bradford in particular will make (and *are* making) strong bids for *that* vote.  That is, *they're* more likely to be injurious to Saunders than Furey is...

Saunders seems like he will be the candidate of the more right-leaning half of John Tory voters and most Rob Ford/Doug Ford voters. If you base your info on the 2014 mayoral election, this would be roughly 50-55% of the Toronto electorate, give or take (Doug Ford voters in that election made up 33.73% of the electorate, John Tory voters made up 40.28% of the electorate and if you take one half of that, presumably the more right-leaning half, it would be 20.14% of Toronto voters, adding up to 53.87%). Edit: To clarify, I'm not saying he will get 54% of the vote but that's his group of potential voters, the pond he can fish out of.

Based on my completely unscientific analysis, this means Saunders would do well in Northern Etobicoke, in North York but moreso further to the west of the area, particularly in wards 8 and 9, and Scarborough, especially further north.