Toronto Mayoral By Election

[Hatman 🍁]

Penalosa has dropped out and endorsed Chow.

[lilTommy]

Penalosa has dropped out and endorsed Chow.

Along with MPP Kristyn Wong-Tam (not a surprise)

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll:

Chow 23
Bailão 19
Matlow 18
Saunders 14
Bradford 7
Hunter 7

[lilTommy]

New MSR poll:

Chow 23
Bailão 19
Matlow 18
Saunders 14
Bradford 7
Hunter 7

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

The city's left voters really have one candidate that they can now rally around (I think if we compare that to Toronto wide NDP vote federally, it would probably be around 20-25. Chow has some room to grow but mostly off of Matlow, still low ceiling of 30% likely), while it looks more and more that the cities Progressive/Moderate (i.e. Liberal Party) vote is being stretched out among 4 candidates. Saunders looks to have captured the Conservative vote which is still either not showing up or is also being spread out to Bradford.
It's looking like the next mayor will probably win with less then 30% of the vote. BUT will we see a repeat of Ottawa Municipal? where the C-CR rallies around one candidate to stop the leftist candidate from winning?

[DL]

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

What makes you label Bailao as "moderate" and Hunter as "progressive"? I see zero ideological difference between them.

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll:

Chow 23
Bailão 19
Matlow 18
Saunders 14
Bradford 7
Hunter 7

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

The city's left voters really have one candidate that they can now rally around (I think if we compare that to Toronto wide NDP vote federally, it would probably be around 20-25. Chow has some room to grow but mostly off of Matlow, still low ceiling of 30% likely), while it looks more and more that the cities Progressive/Moderate (i.e. Liberal Party) vote is being stretched out among 4 candidates. Saunders looks to have captured the Conservative vote which is still either not showing up or is also being spread out to Bradford.
It's looking like the next mayor will probably win with less then 30% of the vote. BUT will we see a repeat of Ottawa Municipal? where the C-CR rallies around one candidate to stop the leftist candidate from winning?

I think a lot of the right wing vote is being wrapped up in some of the 'other' candidates right now, like Davis, Furey, Mammoliti, and Chris Sky, so Saunders still has some room to grow.

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

What makes you label Bailao as "moderate" and Hunter as "progressive"? I see zero ideological difference between them.

There is a bit of an ideological difference in their supporters from what I've seen. I would classify Bailao's vote pool as "urban centrist" and Hunter as "suburban Liberal". Baialo's voter are less progressive, but more urbanist if that makes sense.

[toaster]

Nobody can point to any issue Bailao supports to classify her as CON.  She's a moderate progressive.  Her voters in Davenport (where she won for council with 80%) are the most left-learning in the city, so saying people who support her are right-leaning is not true.  This nonsense of people trying to classify her as conservative is not substantiated anywhere.

[King of Kensington]

Bailao is pretty much a classic big-L Liberal. 

[Vosem]

Bailão comes from a background well to his left, but isn't she running basically on being a close ally of John Tory and as being a continuity candidate for him? Or am I totally off-base here? (While Saunders is right of that, among the top tier of candidates).

[adma]

Nobody can point to any issue Bailao supports to classify her as CON.  She's a moderate progressive.  Her voters in Davenport (where she won for council with 80%) are the most left-learning in the city, so saying people who support her are right-leaning is not true.  This nonsense of people trying to classify her as conservative is not substantiated anywhere.

Still, more "moderate" than "progressive" (though I agree on the not-Con part, notwithstanding Kouvalis or the likelihood of her drawing some of that John Toryish couldn't-fathom-voting-for-a-socialist vote).  And that last 80% election win was by default, as there was she was the sole incumbent running and the left didn't get the chance to run a viable candidate against her (they were counting on a Bailao vs Palacio race-of-the-incumbents, but Palacio dropped out).

[DL]

For reasons i cannot fathom some municipal public sector unions are endorsing Bailao - even though on city council she spearheaded the move to contract out garbage collection west of Yonge St. apparently this is creating a lot of divisions within labour since most of their activists would prefer Olivia Chow. But it does suggest that if Bailao were to become mayor she would try to curry favour with municipal unions and be more generous in contract negotiations.

[adma]

For reasons i cannot fathom some municipal public sector unions are endorsing Bailao - even though on city council she spearheaded the move to contract out garbage collection west of Yonge St. apparently this is creating a lot of divisions within labour since most of their activists would prefer Olivia Chow. But it does suggest that if Bailao were to become mayor she would try to curry favour with municipal unions and be more generous in contract negotiations.

Unions can be more complicated than clean fits into the "left" pigeonhole--consider some of the Ford photo-ops and endorsements last year.

In which case, I wonder if Chow's ironically taking on the cast of an anointed "elite candidate", Laurentian or not--a little like a 70s Crombie/Sewell figure.  Whereas Bailao's union endorsements position her as more of a "low Liberal for the working guy", a la Tony O'Donohue in '72 and '78 or to some degree Art Eggleton in '80 (both of whose municipal turfs were predecessors or near-predecessors to Bailao's).  And of course, there's similarities to John Tory vs Doug Ford...

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if the winner will receive a higher or lower share of the vote than the 29% Kennedy Stewart won with in 2018 in Vancouver.

[DL]

For reasons i cannot fathom some municipal public sector unions are endorsing Bailao - even though on city council she spearheaded the move to contract out garbage collection west of Yonge St. apparently this is creating a lot of divisions within labour since most of their activists would prefer Olivia Chow. But it does suggest that if Bailao were to become mayor she would try to curry favour with municipal unions and be more generous in contract negotiations.

Unions can be more complicated than clean fits into the "left" pigeonhole--consider some of the Ford photo-ops and endorsements last year.

In which case, I wonder if Chow's ironically taking on the cast of an anointed "elite candidate", Laurentian or not--a little like a 70s Crombie/Sewell figure.  Whereas Bailao's union endorsements position her as more of a "low Liberal for the working guy", a la Tony O'Donohue in '72 and '78 or to some degree Art Eggleton in '80 (both of whose municipal turfs were predecessors or near-predecessors to Bailao's).  And of course, there's similarities to John Tory vs Doug Ford...

Forget traditional right/left labels, we are talking about public sector unions (which Never ever support Ford) backing someone who supports contracting out unionized city jobs to non unionized private co tractors that pay slave wages. This is literally chickens voting for Col. Sanders

[adma]

For reasons i cannot fathom some municipal public sector unions are endorsing Bailao - even though on city council she spearheaded the move to contract out garbage collection west of Yonge St. apparently this is creating a lot of divisions within labour since most of their activists would prefer Olivia Chow. But it does suggest that if Bailao were to become mayor she would try to curry favour with municipal unions and be more generous in contract negotiations.

Unions can be more complicated than clean fits into the "left" pigeonhole--consider some of the Ford photo-ops and endorsements last year.

In which case, I wonder if Chow's ironically taking on the cast of an anointed "elite candidate", Laurentian or not--a little like a 70s Crombie/Sewell figure.  Whereas Bailao's union endorsements position her as more of a "low Liberal for the working guy", a la Tony O'Donohue in '72 and '78 or to some degree Art Eggleton in '80 (both of whose municipal turfs were predecessors or near-predecessors to Bailao's).  And of course, there's similarities to John Tory vs Doug Ford...

Forget traditional right/left labels, we are talking about public sector unions (which Never ever support Ford) backing someone who supports contracting out unionized city jobs to non unionized private co tractors that pay slave wages. This is literally chickens voting for Col. Sanders

Well, w/Olivia in the race, if present polls sustain themselves or define trajectories in any way, who knows whether we'll have tea-leaf-reading endorsement shifts--Chris Moise following his predecessor KWT, perhaps, among them...

[adma]

I wonder if the winner will receive a higher or lower share of the vote than the 29% Kennedy Stewart won with in 2018 in Vancouver.

Or the 27.54% of Scott Gillingham in Winnipeg last year.

[King of Kensington]

Two Scarborough MPs have endorsed Bailao:

https://twitter.com/anabailaoTO/status/1650197397648162817

[Hatman 🍁]

Endorsements are a big deal in municipal politics, which lack parties, so voters use them as a cue as to who to vote for. I'm fully expecting Bailao to pull away and win this at this point, as she coalesces the centre vote.

Interestingly, Saunders isn't getting any of the traditional Tory endorsements. They're all going to Furey, who is polling at 1%

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll out by Liaison Strategies. Never heard of them, and their numbers are a bit different than MSR's, at least when it comes to Bailao.

Chow 23
Matlow 21
Saunders 19
Bradford 11
Bailão 9
Hunter 9

Now, I believe MSR is Bailao's pollster, so that might be why she's doing well in their results. Of course, if they're doing most of the polling, their numbers will shape the narrative.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Endorsements are a big deal in municipal politics, which lack parties, so voters use them as a cue as to who to vote for. I'm fully expecting Bailao to pull away and win this at this point, as she coalesces the centre vote.

Interestingly, Saunders isn't getting any of the traditional Tory endorsements. They're all going to Furey, who is polling at 1%

Now to be fair, the traditional Tory endorsements going to Furey, while still notable, aren't the most relevant Tory endorsements. 0/12 PC MPPs have made an endorsement so far, and they would be the most important ones as far as this election goes.

Saunders and Bradford have probably been hurting each other more than any of their left-wing opponents. They're both trying to run on the law and order lane, which is the best approach for right-wing candidates in Toronto right now, except both are having their credibility attacked from the right - Bradford attacking Saunders for being an ineffective police chief, and Saunders pointing out Bradford's vote to cut police funding. And I mean, Bradford's cynical pivot to the right is a bit too obvious.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New poll out by Liaison Strategies. Never heard of them, and their numbers are a bit different than MSR's, at least when it comes to Bailao.

Chow 23
Matlow 21
Saunders 19
Bradford 11
Bailão 9
Hunter 9

Now, I believe MSR is Bailao's pollster, so that might be why she's doing well in their results. Of course, if they're doing most of the polling, their numbers will shape the narrative.

It's notable that the left-wing candidates are polling as well as they are. This isn't the only poll showing Chow+Matlow > 40%, in fact most are showing that.

[King of Kensington]

Bailao has the endorsements of former mayors Art Eggleton and Barbara Hall.

https://anabailao.ca/latest-news/former-mayors-art-eggleton-and-barbara-hall-endorse-ana

[DL]

What "traditional Tory endorsements" have there been for Furey?

[Hatman 🍁]

What "traditional Tory endorsements" have there been for Furey?

Well, as has been mentioned he doesn't have any sitting MPPs, but he has some past MPPs and MPs as well as former Senator Vern White (who was Ottawa's police chief, which is interesting that he's not backing another officer in Saunders).

Bradford and Saunders have no endorsements at all, of any kind.

[toaster]

I mean, Saunders kind of unofficially has the Ford endorsement. 

Bailao has endorsements across the board, left, right and centre.  That poll seems to be an outlier, will be interesting to see if any other polling firm duplicates those numbers since they come from a poller that nobody has ever heard of.