WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Vosem]

Sure, they seemingly got the guy they wanted in PA, but that doesn't make him a great recruit though. The single fact that that the best PA GOP has to offer is David McCormick, who lost a primary to... Mehmet Oz, isn't really saying much imo. There's a reason why no other candidates have really emerged.

I mean, he came within a few hundred votes of a guy with a Trump endorsement in spite of zero prior name recognition and not running a campaign which was really particularly extreme or offensive to the electorate. (I get what you mean, but I think you're comparing the GOP's real goals with things that can't really be done, or sometimes don't even exist in principle).

[JMT]

I’m still skeptical that David Clarke runs. Regardless, republicans will now be increasing the pressure on Eric Hovde to run. I think Hovde will ultimately go for it / be the nominee.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Maybe they can get Oz to run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weird; Tiffany had actually cleared the field and gotten endorsements behind the scenes and so forth. One of the weirder "actually, I'm not running" moments this side of Josh Mandel and Kate Marshall not running for OH-Sen and NV-Sen in 2018.

This is definitely a moment for anyone remotely interested in running to reconsider, though I haven't seen much evidence of this from Clarke (...and, as others have pointed out, in the past he has always run for office as a Democrat, so even if he runs it may well be against Baldwin in a primary. Inasmuch as there's a bubble of interest going on around RFK, we should start seeing people running for lower offices as "RFK Democrats"). If Clarke is interested in running, we'll know soon enough. There's a rich guy named Scott Mayer who I know has had contacts with Daines. The WIGOP wants Eric Hovde, who lost the 2012 Senate primary and can self-fund, but Hovde has now been a tease for over a decade.

Wow, the GOP may actually be stuck with David Clarke, damn. They're having awfully big troubles in WI, MI, and PA.

They got the guy they wanted in PA and cleared the field for him! That's, like, one of Daines' biggest successes. (Daines has also said that the path through a Senate majority goes through WV/MT/OH/PA, which strikes me as oddly optimistic for PA and oddly pessimistic for AZ/NV, but it is what it is.)

Sure, they seemingly got the guy they wanted in PA, but that doesn't make him a great recruit though. The single fact that that the best PA GOP has to offer is David McCormick, who lost a primary to... Mehmet Oz, isn't really saying much imo. There's a reason why no other candidates have really emerged.

it's a 51/47 EC map Trump is leading 51/47 in OH and Biden is leading 51/47 in WI, PA and MI SLOTKIN, Baldwin, Kaine, Rosen, Gallego should win 51/47 and Casey should win 54/46

[Tekken_Guy]

Clarke should be easier to beat in the primary than Kari Lake in Arizona. He’s not as popular with GOP primary voters as he used to be and will probably depend on a more rural coalition to win the state. Dan Kelly won with that coalition but it was a close one,

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1686733634324041729?t=csg-NyPdEN8KE8V83nviww...

And another one gone, another one gone, another one bites the dust.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good she isn't running

[Tekken_Guy]

2022 was a major scare for a lot of potential Republican nominees — Barnes was quietly written off, and if even he can come within a point of beating one of the best-run GOP campaigns of the cycle in a D trifecta midterm, it’s not hard to see why many are pessimistic when it comes to unseating Baldwin. You add to this the unexpected Evers sweep, the SC race, big legislative wins, the power of the Trump endorsement (potentially career-ending even for skilled candidates) and one of the most robust D organizations of any D state party in the country, and it’s clear why many on the GOP side are opting against a run here.

If there’s any Biden state Ds should be worried about, it’s Nevada. I also agree with Vosem (and it’s long been one of my "bold" takes) that PA isn’t really notably less competitive than WI for PRES or SEN.

Nevada shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Sure Sisolak lost, but after the Senate race slipped from their fingers I wouldn’t bet on Republicans winning here.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This race feels reminiscent of 2022 AZ-SEN

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone but David Clarke, please...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

According to Fox News Representative Tom “Wilson” announced he’s not running.

I have no idea how they messed up his name so bad. In the headline and first summary they have “Tom Wilson” but everywhere after that it’s talking about Tiffany. There’s currently no Wilsons in the Wisconsin legislature so idk who they could confuse him for.

[MargieCat]

I wonder if Timothy Ramthun will run?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs cannot win the Prez without WI so it's fake over, and Paul Ryan says if Trump is the nominee he won't actively campaign for Trump in WI so it's a done deal

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/Ramthun4WI/status/1687162935045472288

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/Ramthun4WI/status/1687162935045472288

wat

[Roll Roons]

This idiot ran for Governor last year and got 6% of the primary vote. I don't see how he'd do any better here.

[MargieCat]

This idiot ran for Governor last year and got 6% of the primary vote. I don't see how he'd do any better here.

Partly because he was running against Tim Michels who was endorsed by Trump. They were too similar for Ramthun to have a chance.

He could easily win the MAGA vote if the GOP doesn't get a better recruit (and it doesn't seem like anybody else is itching to get blown out by Tammy Baldwin).

[Real Texan Politics]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Likely Baldwin

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

He’s not in until he officially announces.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

Yes thats why we have Senator McCormick of Pennsylvania

[Tekken_Guy]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

Yes thats why we have Senator McCormick of Pennsylvania

The NRCC didn’t really intervene in the 2022 primary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

He's in
https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1701355039241933135?s=20

Baldwin will outrun Casey. Calling it

The NRCC will fight tooth and nail to make sure he isn’t the nominee, just like they’ll do with Kari Lake and Jim Marchant.

Yes thats why we have Senator McCormick of Pennsylvania

The NRCC didn’t really intervene in the 2022 primary.

I think Duffy could be competitive in the primary but I doubt he runs