WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[SnowLabrador]

I haven't seen one of these yet, so feel free to either direct me to that megathread or post discussion of the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race here.

Coming off a heartbreaking 1% loss to Ron Johnson, Democrats hope Tammy Baldwin can win re-election. However, in my view this race is a tossup, and gun to my head, Baldwin narrowly loses.

[Blair]

Doom, Doom, Doom, Doom, Doom, Doom, Doom.

Bolduc, narrowly. And then he narrowly wins reelection in 2028.

[Spectator]

Why do D-MA avatars by and large seem to be very annoying with providing no logic or data for their “feels”?

[Roll Roons]

However, in my view this race is a tossup, and gun to my head, Baldwin narrowly loses.

Of course you think that.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gallagher would be the strongest. Steil is much weaker I feel and is more overrated than the former

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallagher would be the strongest. Steil is much weaker I feel and is more overrated than the former

Steil may be lucky to hold onto WI-1, considering he underperformed against a completely underfunded nobody this year, only winning by 9. Gallagher is their best candidate, because he's a "normal" Republican. If Trump's on the ballot, though... advantage Baldwin.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Baldwin will be hard to defeat in 2024. Combined with her incumbency advantage, she's much less polarizing than Ron Johnson despite her progressive ideology. Ron Johnson's winning margin was a lot smaller than many expected. WI is still very much a tilt D swing state that will not go hard R anytime soon.

[GALeftist]

Evers just won convincingly and RonJon almost got caught lackin by a candidate I was told was an unelectable antifa member *in a Biden midterm*, but sure, tell me more about how Baldwin is DOA lol. Lean D unless Gallagher wins the primary which I do not think he will.

[Xing]

I’ll start this out at Lean D. Obviously Baldwin isn’t safe, but she’s a pretty effective campaigner, and will probably outrun the Democratic ticket by several points, which will more likely than not be enough (I’d say Wisconsin is a Toss-Up at the presidential level, and it’s unlikely to go Republican by more than a couple of points.) Republicans don’t have that many obvious opponents to run against her, especially since I doubt someone like Gallagher or Steil would do well in a Republican primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baldwin will win Biden is back on ballot and WI. The WOW counties that Evers won that Barnes didn't win that Biden won in 20

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

The Dairy Overlords hath forsain, and forsooth: Baldwin by 6 over her challenger.

[redjohn]

Lean D. Baldwin is a strong incumbent and will probably outrun the Democratic Presidential candidate by at least a few points. I only see this seat flipping if Biden loses WI by 3+ points, which is unlikely given the continuation of Democratic swings in WOW + Dane + Fox Valley that we saw this cycle.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s wait for 2024 before making any predictions.

[Ferguson97]

Baldwin would be favored. Incumbency advantage + presidential year + less polarizing than Ron Johnson. I won't rule it out if the Republicans field an exceptional candidate, but I would put money on Baldwin.

[Dani Rose]

Johnson was going to be a tough pull when Democrats, for some inexplicable reason, gave up on defeating him this year. Baldwin will be in no such position. Call it lesbian solidarity, but definitely betting on her here.

[SnowLabrador]

Johnson was going to be a tough pull when Democrats, for some inexplicable reason, gave up on defeating him this year. Baldwin will be in no such position. Call it lesbian solidarity, but definitely betting on her here.

They spent lots of money on Barnes, it's just that the GOP spent more on Johnson. Citizens United is the only reason Ron Johnson is a Senator to begin with.

[Woody]

Gallagher is the obvious choice.

[Tekken_Guy]

If she gets an opponent like Sean Duffy or Sheriff Clarke then she should be OK. Only against someone like Mike Gallagher would she be in trouble.

[Zedonathin2020]

No way Gallagher DOSEN'T run for the promotion.

[TheFonz]

Gallagher would lose handily in a race against Baldwin. Wisconsinites aren't enamored by Ivy League educations and foreign policy chops. They'd rather vote for someone who can show up to a campaign rally with a blaze orange hat and vest and not look like a phony, and who has a deep connection to the rural parts of the state. Of course GOP senate leadership and out of touch media types who don't understand this state are going to hype him, because he's their idea of what every senator ought to be. But farmers, driftless area voters, etc. want someone they can relate to. I don't know that he's the guy for sure, but Tom Tiffany comes to mind.

Gallagher vs Tiffany is "indubitably" vs "you betcha" and WI voters will go for the latter imo.

[BloJo94]

Mandela Barnes should primary out Baldwin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandela Barnes should primary out Baldwin

He won't do that because Tammy Baldwin won her rave last time by 10

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593657087887671296
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594801765802614784
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594800509293953024
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594761670257086464
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593257874423050240
Bryan Steil is it then?

[lfromnj]

FEC refilings mean nothing, just a method to continue raising money.

[YE]

Mandela Barnes should primary out Baldwin

You are kidding, right?