WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are old news at this point and are likely never running for elected office ever again.

I don't know about Walker, actually; he still endorses in random Wisconsin primaries and campaigns for people all the time, including state legislative guys, and I don't think that behavior makes sense unless he wants to come back himself at some point. (OTOH, Walker is someone who believes really deeply in the ideology of the Republican Party and per everyone who knows him he has since, like, early childhood, so maybe for him it's out of a sense of duty, but if a normal politician behaved the way Walker is we'd all suspect he's keeping the door open to a comeback).

It seems like he's just settling in as the ultimate kingmaker of Wisconsin Republican politics rather than an actual candidate himself. If he did really want a comeback then why didn't he go for a rematch with Evers this year?

I could very well see him getting into a DeSantis cabinet though.

[2016]

@Tekken_Guy,
I don't think you can wait until after Super Tuesday in Wisconsin to decide whether to run for Senate. Filling Deadline to get on the Primary Ballot is much earlier I think.

Republicans have 3 credible Candidates: Gallagher (likely out), Steil and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

[Vosem]

@Tekken_Guy,
I don't think you can wait until after Super Tuesday in Wisconsin to decide whether to run for Senate. Filling Deadline to get on the Primary Ballot is much earlier I think.

Republicans have 3 credible Candidates: Gallagher (likely out), Steil and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

It might be different in presidential years, but Ballotpedia reports the Wisconsin deadline in 2022 was June 1, 2022 -- months after Super Tuesday. Most of the states with very early deadlines are in the South.

[2016]

@Tekken_Guy,
I don't think you can wait until after Super Tuesday in Wisconsin to decide whether to run for Senate. Filling Deadline to get on the Primary Ballot is much earlier I think.

Republicans have 3 credible Candidates: Gallagher (likely out), Steil and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

It might be different in presidential years, but Ballotpedia reports the Wisconsin deadline in 2022 was June 1, 2022 -- months after Super Tuesday. Most of the states with very early deadlines are in the South.

That might be true what you say here BUT you also have to raise funds. I am going to watch the FEC Fillings very closely in 2023 which often does give clues if someone runs or not.

[Tekken_Guy]

@Tekken_Guy,
I don't think you can wait until after Super Tuesday in Wisconsin to decide whether to run for Senate. Filling Deadline to get on the Primary Ballot is much earlier I think.

Republicans have 3 credible Candidates: Gallagher (likely out), Steil and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

Vos is not going to give up his extremely powerful speakership just to run for Senate.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

A lot more Democratic voters can still be squeezed out of Dane County.  Plus, Dane's turnout could still be a little bit higher.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

A lot more Democratic voters can still be squeezed out of Dane County.  Plus, Dane's turnout could still be a little bit higher.

Clearly replicate the Evers not Barnes map, Barnes clearly lost some votes due to Biden not on ballot and connection to BLM and Kenosha

Same with Brown and Tester they are gonna win by less than 2018 but since Landsman is rep in CVG squeeze more votes out of Hamilton, we lost some votes in CMH and Hamilton due to DeWine that won't be there in 24


Landsman is clearly the fav to take on Vance 28

[SnowLabrador]

If Gallagher gets in, this race is a tossup at best for Democrats. Apparently he's showing signs that he will likely run.

[Zedonathin2020]

If Gallagher gets in, this race is a tossup at best for Democrats. Apparently he's showing signs that he will likely run.

I find Gallagher more likely to run for Senate whenever Ronnie Boy retires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Gallagher gets in, this race is a tossup at best for Democrats. Apparently he's showing signs that he will likely run.

You're doing again Baldwin is safe

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Rs win this Senate race, good chance Wisconsin is the "worst" swing state for congressional Ds:

Sends 2Ds and 6Rs to the House

2 Republican Senators.

[Xing]

If Gallagher gets in, this race is a tossup at best for Democrats. Apparently he's showing signs that he will likely run.

Congrats, re-elected Senator Baldwin!

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

In terms of topline %, they'll have a hard time getting much higher than 80-83% just cause this is a country with fair elections.

However, Madison is the fastest growing part of WI by far, which I think is the most notable. That's moot if Ds have an aggressive collapse in the rest of the state, but if on net they hold their ground roughly even everywhere else, that's powerful.

[Pericles]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

Sounds like he's the Adam Laxalt of 2024.

[Roll Roons]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

His electoral record actually is pretty impressive. In 2016, he won this open seat by 25 points over the sitting executive of the second-largest county in the district, outperforming Trump in the process. He expanded his margin of victory in 2018 despite it being a much bluer year, and once again outran Trump by several points in 2020.

[LimoLiberal]

Re: Gallagher

He's married to a Broadway actress. One time I stalked her Instagram and found that her hair and makeup at her wedding were done by a pretty well-known drag queen (who also attended the wedding, and seems to be a close friend).

Any MAGA candidate looking to beat him in the primary - PM me.

[GALeftist]

Re: Gallagher

He's married to a Broadway actress. One time I stalked her Instagram and found that her hair and makeup at her wedding were done by a pretty well-known drag queen (who also attended the wedding, and seems to be a close friend).

Any MAGA candidate looking to beat him in the primary - PM me.

I've heard a lot more along these lines regarding Gallagher specifically, not even his wife. Unsure he'll get involved in a statewide primary for that reason

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

In terms of topline %, they'll have a hard time getting much higher than 80-83% just cause this is a country with fair elections.

However, Madison is the fastest growing part of WI by far, which I think is the most notable. That's moot if Ds have an aggressive collapse in the rest of the state, but if on net they hold their ground roughly even everywhere else, that's powerful.

Isn't Milwaukee losing population which cancels that out a bit?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

In terms of topline %, they'll have a hard time getting much higher than 80-83% just cause this is a country with fair elections.

However, Madison is the fastest growing part of WI by far, which I think is the most notable. That's moot if Ds have an aggressive collapse in the rest of the state, but if on net they hold their ground roughly even everywhere else, that's powerful.

Isn't Milwaukee losing population which cancels that out a bit?

Yeah, I made a thread about that awhile back, though some of Milwaukee’s losses seem to have contributed to making the suburbs (WOW) a bit bluer.

Overall, the biggest consequence is just a declining black influence. Good chance when Moore retires WI-04 sends a liberal white person to congress for instance

WI prolly stays competitive until we see another coalition change. The population shift dynamics largely cancel out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

In terms of topline %, they'll have a hard time getting much higher than 80-83% just cause this is a country with fair elections.

However, Madison is the fastest growing part of WI by far, which I think is the most notable. That's moot if Ds have an aggressive collapse in the rest of the state, but if on net they hold their ground roughly even everywhere else, that's powerful.

Isn't Milwaukee losing population which cancels that out a bit?

RS think Evers didn't win 51/46 and he did

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Thread name idea: the unsinkable Tammy Baldwin

[walleye26]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

Gallagher comes across as pretty honest and has a good relationship with business. He’s not overly cultural-war-y, more of the fiscal and national security type. Because he has a good relationship with business, that goes a long way here. He does have legitimate crossover appeal, by absolutely crushing it in his elections. The Fox Valley is the fastest growing part of the state outside of Madison, so that does speak to some political skill.

To me, he’s always seemed to be a pragmatic businessman who’s concerned about national security and business issues more so than a culture warrior.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

Gallagher comes across as pretty honest and has a good relationship with business. He’s not overly cultural-war-y, more of the fiscal and national security type. Because he has a good relationship with business, that goes a long way here. He does have legitimate crossover appeal, by absolutely crushing it in his elections. The Fox Valley is the fastest growing part of the state outside of Madison, so that does speak to some political skill.

To me, he’s always seemed to be a pragmatic businessman who’s concerned about national security and business issues more so than a culture warrior.

Interesting insight.

I just checked, and while he didn't have an opponent in 2022, but in both 2018 and 2020 he pretty heavily outran Biden in his district.

Would it be more or less a given he'd win a primary if he jumped in, or could he bee Klee-fished?

[walleye26]

Can someone explain why exactly Gallagher is particularly strong, other than the fact he isn't completely derailed? He's not moderate nor does he come across as particularly charismatic. The only thing I can think of is he voted for the Respect for Marriage Act. And finally Baldwin is still a generally well-liked incumbent at the end of the day.

No matter what, Ds shouldn't take this seat for granted and they very well could lose, but Gallagher seems pretty "meh"

Gallagher comes across as pretty honest and has a good relationship with business. He’s not overly cultural-war-y, more of the fiscal and national security type. Because he has a good relationship with business, that goes a long way here. He does have legitimate crossover appeal, by absolutely crushing it in his elections. The Fox Valley is the fastest growing part of the state outside of Madison, so that does speak to some political skill.

To me, he’s always seemed to be a pragmatic businessman who’s concerned about national security and business issues more so than a culture warrior.

Interesting insight.

I just checked, and while he didn't have an opponent in 2022, but in both 2018 and 2020 he pretty heavily outran Biden in his district.

Would it be more or less a given he'd win a primary if he jumped in, or could he bee Klee-fished?

It would depend on who his opponent is. If it’s some fringe loon he’d probably win, but if it’s against somebody like Walker that may be more difficult.