WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[SnowLabrador]

I truly believe Baldwin will narrowly lose in 2024. Even without the low-propensity WWC voters turning out, Johnson was still able to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sean Duffy needs to run

LoL do you know that Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 and won her last race by 10, newsflash we won the WI Gov race by 4

Kelly underpolled Johnson by 10 65/35 to Johnson Kelly 55/45 in the metro suburbs, Tammy Baldwin will beat Kleefish and Brown did the same thing to Renacci that Ryan couldn't do last time and Kunce can do the same thing as Valentine didn't do but McCaskill did in 2012

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, she is the Sherrod Brown of WI not to be underestimate

[Koharu]

I should caveat my "worries." Currently, I'm fairly certain Baldwin will win.

But there are lots of things in play for 2024. The presidential election will absolutely affect turn-out, as well as the political mood overall. It also is going to depend a lot on who runs. But I do worry that recent anti-LGBT+ sentiments are going to mean that Baldwin is going to have to defend herself as a member of that community/spend time addressing it, which wasn't much of an issue in 2018. I just can't (currently) assume this is a slam-dunk for Baldwin, and so, anxious person that I am, I worry. :)

Anyway, hooray for Baldwin officially announcing, and here's hoping the WISGOP fails to cohese around a candidate.

[Fancyarcher]

I truly believe Baldwin will narrowly lose in 2024. Even without the low-propensity WWC voters turning out, Johnson was still able to win.

I know I shouldn't respond to Snowlabador's comments, but... Johnson's win was very underwhelming though, given that he had all the dark money in the world, the environment was closer to neutral then blue, and his opponent who made a lot of first grade mistakes.

Remember there were users here who thought he was unbeatable, which turned out to be not the case at all.  

Baldwin in comparsion has shown herself to be a much stronger more likable candidate. Whether that helps her in 2024, depends on the environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Baldwin is officially IN:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1646338991300419585

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is the Janet Protasicwz of WI, the RS lost the state by 11 pts it won't be that way in the end but it won't be only 50 K votes it will reflect the PVI like Fetterman and Evers she will win the same vote at least 52/47

[miles prower]

How would Paul Nehlan do against Baldwin?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Inb4 Ramthun runs lol

[Gracile]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

[GALeftist]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

Ehh I tend to think Baldwin is overestimated on this forum, however it does Lean Dem at the moment.
The problem is that Republicans just don't have a good bench in WI at the moment and Tiffany is the best they have imo.
Gallagher is a huge warhawk neocon and I'm not sure how that would play in Wisconsin, while Tiffany even voted to take troops out of Syria. He's a populist who is pretty pro-Trump but doesn't tie himself at the hip to Trump the way 2022 candidates did.
Honestly though he'd get national Republicans to invest in the race and that alone makes him a decent candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

Ehh I tend to think Baldwin is overestimated on this forum, however it does Lean Dem at the moment.
The problem is that Republicans just don't have a good bench in WI at the moment and Tiffany is the best they have imo.
Gallagher is a huge warhawk neocon and I'm not sure how that would play in Wisconsin, while Tiffany even voted to take troops out of Syria. He's a populist who is pretty pro-Trump but doesn't tie himself at the hip to Trump the way 2022 candidates did.
Honestly though he'd get national Republicans to invest in the race and that alone makes him a decent candidate.

Baldwin is safe she beat Tommy Thompson in 2912 already, she's not LOSING

[GALeftist]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

Ehh I tend to think Baldwin is overestimated on this forum, however it does Lean Dem at the moment.
The problem is that Republicans just don't have a good bench in WI at the moment and Tiffany is the best they have imo.
Gallagher is a huge warhawk neocon and I'm not sure how that would play in Wisconsin, while Tiffany even voted to take troops out of Syria. He's a populist who is pretty pro-Trump but doesn't tie himself at the hip to Trump the way 2022 candidates did.
Honestly though he'd get national Republicans to invest in the race and that alone makes him a decent candidate.

I think she's underrated if anything, tbh. D+11 in 2018 was not too shabby, nor was beating a former popular governor by 5.5 points in 2012. Also, I don't think I'm going to convince you of this, but I don't want to leave it unsaid that not everyone in Wisconsin is the populist stereotype you're imagining here.

[wbrocks67]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

[Woody]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

Literally no. As much as y’all try and minimize the fact you staged a coup people still find it repugnant

[SnowLabrador]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

Literally no. As much as y’all try and minimize the fact you staged a coup people still find it repugnant

While I agree that the attempted coup should never be normalized, I think Woodbury has a point in that anyone who's bothered by it enough to vote against Tiffany was never going to vote for Tiffany to begin with. Rather sad, but reality doesn't have to conform to what we wish it would be.

[GALeftist]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

WOW, three candidates got elected! I guess normal people don't care about socialism because there are double that number of socialists in the House alone.

[Woody]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

WOW, three candidates got elected! I guess normal people don't care about socialism because there are double that number of socialists in the House alone.

I am bringing up swing-seat candidates. None of the socialist clowns would come close to winning.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

WOW, three candidates got elected! I guess normal people don't care about socialism because there are double that number of socialists in the House alone.

Woodbury doesn’t count them as “normal” means apart of the Republican hivemind

[Mr. Smith]

Tom Tiffany is literally an election denier lol

Awesome. So was Ron Johnson, Mike Garcia, Ted Budd, Lee Zeldin, etc. Normal people don't care about that.

WOW, three candidates got elected! I guess normal people don't care about socialism because there are double that number of socialists in the House alone.

I am bringing up swing-seat candidates. None of the socialist clowns would come close to winning.

It was a point difference in Wisconsin, and only because Barnes was abandoned prematurely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we won WI by 11 in the judge race and Casey is up 12 we aren't losing Baldwin, Slotkin and Casey are safe but it's gonna be closer to Fetterman margins 51/47

There are 80/75 M More Ds than Rs that's  the 20 PVI 52/47 but we can get a Landslide not a 303 map a 380 Map isn't that far off from 303

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1667160402440904705?s=20

[wbrocks67]

GOP nominee Sheriff David Clarke it is, then!