WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

[The Mikado]

I think people are not only overestimating Hovde but have an incorrect impression of what Daines is trying to do here. The NRSC knows that WI-SEN is going to be a heavy lift no matter what but recruiting a self funder means that they don't have to spend their own cash on it and can also direct donors to other, more winnable races. If they had a normal candidate they'd be basically forced into spending tens of millions on a pretty hard seat (Baldwin could easily run 3-4 points ahead of Biden so she's in good shape even if Biden narrowly loses Wisconsin).

[Vosem]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

Residency problems are rarely taken seriously by the electorate, and essentially never in the case of veterans like McCormick. (But I will say that there's a gap where the Republican primary electorate literally never cares, while the general-election electorate and the Democratic primary electorate are likelier to care.)

Anyway, the main difference between Hovde and McCormick is probably that McCormick can try to run on his service in the Gulf War, but Hovde does not have that in his background.

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1760071147796759013

That's one hell of a community note. Democrats should definitely try to make a controversy out of Hovde building shelters for trafficked children. (That's actually so perfect that I'm tempted to wonder if Hovde deliberately worded his comment in a way that would bait Democrats into attacking his strengths, though I think it's probably just a funny circumstance.)

[kwabbit]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

McCormick growing up there is definitely more palatable to the electorate than Oz's almost complete carpetbagging or Hillary's in 2000. It still carries some penalty but being a PA native is better than being a PA nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baldwin will win

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would peg this around Lean D. Baldwin is favored, but Hovde seems to be hitting the ground running. Baldwin (along with Casey) probably have less cross-over appeal than even Brown does. Baldwin will probably survive a very narrow Trump win in the state, but if Trump is carrying Wisconsin by more than 2 points this becomes a jumpball. The thing with Wisconsin is its been a bipolar state in Presidential cycles going Obama/Baldwin and then Trump/Johnson 4 years later.

Ranking the Midwest, I would probably have it in this order for the GOP:

Ohio->Michigan->Wisconsin->Pennsylvania->(big gap)->Minnesota

[Spectator]

I would peg this around Lean D. Baldwin is favored, but Hovde seems to be hitting the ground running. Baldwin (along with Casey) probably have less cross-over appeal than even Brown does. Baldwin will probably survive a very narrow Trump win in the state, but if Trump is carrying Wisconsin by more than 2 points this becomes a jumpball. The thing with Wisconsin is its been a bipolar state in Presidential cycles going Obama/Baldwin and then Trump/Johnson 4 years later.

Ranking the Midwest, I would probably have it in this order for the GOP:

Ohio->Michigan->Wisconsin->Pennsylvania->(big gap)->Minnesota

I think this is right, Lean D Wisconsin sounds about right to me, as well as that ranking of midwestern state competitiveness. Hovde’s residency issues will probably cause him to underpoll Trump by at least 2-3 points, and that matters in a state as perpetually close as Wisconsin. OH (tossup/tilt R)-Michigan (tossup/tilt D)-Wisconsin (Lean D)-Pennsylvania (Likely D) is how I’d rank them

[coloradocowboi]

Lean D is apt for the margins, but it understates Baldwin’s advantage. I’m also not sure that being a rich guy actually plays that well in the Rust Belt. People forget Trump only won here because he played up being crass and offensive to elites. Hovde may have a beautiful porn stache, but I really don’t think he or McCormick can successfully perform the part because they come across as more traditional elites.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently Hodve has posted several videos on twitter like Axe Throwing and Shirtless ice plunge in cold lake that try to paint him out to be a more relatable person and I think also tries to appeal to a lot of mens sense of masculinity.

One thing I worry about is Conservatives on social media seem quite good at equating Conservative politics to ones sense of masculinity, such that a good number of men identify and vote conservative just because they think it makes them more of a man or whatever.

For the overall WI electorate though, kinda makes him look a bit weird ngl, especially since he's just another rich man. Gives me Oz vibes a bit - tries too hard to be down to earth and it makes him seem very unnatural and out of touch.

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1768034336312332688

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1768034336312332688

Safe D

[Flyersfan232]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

Lindsey Williams voted in the 2014 maryland governor election dems didnt seem to care about that

[cg41386]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

Lindsey Williams voted in the 2014 maryland governor election dems didnt seem to care about that

She moved back to Pennsylvania for a new job... four years before her election.

(I had to google this because I had no clue who she was.)

[Roll Roons]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

Lindsey Williams voted in the 2014 maryland governor election dems didnt seem to care about that

Better example - Elissa Slotkin did grow up in Michigan, but moved to New York for college at Cornell and grad school at Columbia and then to DC to work for the CIA and DoD. She'd never voted in the district that she ran for Congress in.

[Spectator]

Hovde will be able to self-fund, but there are reasons he lost the 2012 primary and I think Wisconsin specifically seems poised to trend leftwards in 2024. Leans D; Hovde probably only wins on a night when Rogers and Brown are already winning.

I'm shocked the NRSC is fine with all these peoples' residency problems. Residency problems are generally a killer.

He's at least from Wisconsin and McCormick's at least from Pennsylvania. Oz carpetbagging was another tier above this. In the end the NRSC just wants somebody who can allow more funding to be diverted to more competitive races.

Being from somewhere means nothing, though. Just because you lived here 20 years ago is irrelevant to me. Unless you've been in the state for years, and *still* live there, then you're still a carpetbagger imo. McCormick's is egregious - he literally still lives in CT and has been living there for years now. He only came back to "live" in PA in 2022 - solely because of the senate seat. THAT is egregious.

Lindsey Williams voted in the 2014 maryland governor election dems didnt seem to care about that

Better example - Elissa Slotkin did grow up in Michigan, but moved to New York for college at Cornell and grad school at Columbia and then to DC to work for the CIA and DoD. She'd never voted in the district that she ran for Congress in.

People tend to be forgiving of residency issues related to military/public service. Can't really help that. No one is criticizing Mike Rogers for being an FBI field agent in Chicago in the 80s-90s. His issue is he retired down to Florida for the past ten years and now wants back. That's different from Slotkin's issue of college/CIA

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1775979671038927280?t=JOY5cPy64ATIxDWC32UZ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not about abortion it's about supporting tax cuts for the richest Americans, Hovde supports like Johnson tax cuts for the richest among us

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1775979671038927280?t=JOY5cPy64ATIxDWC32UZ...

How would he vote on a national ban though?

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1775979671038927280?t=JOY5cPy64ATIxDWC32UZ...

Kinda goes to show how unpopular the GOP is on this issue if their senate candidates are openly backing the Roe standard (even if not explicitly saying that).

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1768034336312332688

Safe D

[Electric Circus]

I think people are not only overestimating Hovde but have an incorrect impression of what Daines is trying to do here. The NRSC knows that WI-SEN is going to be a heavy lift no matter what but recruiting a self funder means that they don't have to spend their own cash on it and can also direct donors to other, more winnable races. If they had a normal candidate they'd be basically forced into spending tens of millions on a pretty hard seat (Baldwin could easily run 3-4 points ahead of Biden so she's in good shape even if Biden narrowly loses Wisconsin).

Hovde is the first Trump-endorsed candidate to remind me of Trump himself. He comes across like an early-naughts reality television star who remade himself as an entrepreneur.

[Electric Circus]

For the overall WI electorate though, kinda makes him look a bit weird ngl, especially since he's just another rich man. Gives me Oz vibes a bit - tries too hard to be down to earth and it makes him seem very unnatural and out of touch.

[Gass3268]

Coming to a Baldwin campaign ad near you.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1777405714001997835

[Spectator]

For the overall WI electorate though, kinda makes him look a bit weird ngl, especially since he's just another rich man. Gives me Oz vibes a bit - tries too hard to be down to earth and it makes him seem very unnatural and out of touch.

Masters had school shooter vibes in a way that I don’t think any other high profile candidate ever has before. There are a lot of contenders for the biggest whiffs Republicans made in 2022, but for a statewide slate, Arizona is definitely in contention. Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

For the overall WI electorate though, kinda makes him look a bit weird ngl, especially since he's just another rich man. Gives me Oz vibes a bit - tries too hard to be down to earth and it makes him seem very unnatural and out of touch.

Masters had school shooter vibes in a way that I don’t think any other high profile candidate ever has before. There are a lot of contenders for the biggest whiffs Republicans made in 2022, but for a statewide slate, Arizona is definitely in contention. Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Kid who you’re conspicuously nice to in case he shoots up school, Wino aunt who says slurs at drag brunch, neighbor who you have blocked on Facebook, and the “devils advocate” in your law class.

What an amazing slate.