WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Not Me, Us]

Mandela Barnes should primary out Baldwin

You are kidding, right?

Just ignore him, his whole schtick seems to be suggesting some random leftist Dem primary an incumbent Senator for no reason.

Anyway, Baldwin's race is lean D at worst.

[windjammer]

On an another note,
I absolutely do not believe WI is going to become some kind of lean red state at the federal level. This modterm clearly showed otherwise!

[BloJo94]

On an another note,
I absolutely do not believe WI is going to become some kind of lean red state at the federal level. This modterm clearly showed otherwise!

I think it’s a true 50-50 state for the foreseeable future.

[Spectator]

GOP has a lot of ground still to gain in the rurals countered by the Dems having a lot of ground still to gain in the suburbs and an ever-growing Madison. Remains a tossup.

[Dani Rose]

On an another note,
I absolutely do not believe WI is going to become some kind of lean red state at the federal level. This modterm clearly showed otherwise!

Johnson nearly lost, and would have done with presidential turnout, and Steil massively underperformed against a complete nobody. All told, the cheeseheads beat my expectations, albeit more modestly than I'd hoped.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson won because Crts gerrymandering WI, that's why Rs did better than I'm expecting in NY and Cali, independent commission v R gerrymandering in R states and Commission in Cali

[Pericles]

On an another note,
I absolutely do not believe WI is going to become some kind of lean red state at the federal level. This modterm clearly showed otherwise!

I think in the long-term, much more than PA or MI, Republicans have a lot more room to grow than Democrats because so much of the electorate are rural areas where Democrats lose by less than in other states. Trends don't always happen at the earliest possible opportunity though.

[Tekken_Guy]

FEC refilings mean nothing, just a method to continue raising money.

This. Also I expect Steil to make a similar filing soon.

[Tekken_Guy]

A candidate like Gallagher and Steil would probably make it a real race by turning back the clock in WOW and doing well in their respective districts. Someone more Trumpy would probably be easy pickings for Baldwin.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

No one should underestimate Tammy Baldwin.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A candidate like Gallagher and Steil would probably make it a real race by turning back the clock in WOW and doing well in their respective districts. Someone more Trumpy would probably be easy pickings for Baldwin.

Steil has no chance of winning a primary because he isn't pro gun enough. Agree on Gallagher though

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm not particularly worried about this one.

(Knock on wood.)

[President Johnson]

I'm not particularly worried about this one.

(Knock on wood.)

Yeah, if Baldwin is in trouble, any Democratic hope for maintaining the senate is completely gone then. Maybe Baldwin is helpful to keep the state in Biden's column.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm not particularly worried about this one.

(Knock on wood.)

Yeah, if Baldwin is in trouble, any Democratic hope for maintaining the senate is completely gone then. Maybe Baldwin is helpful to keep the state in Biden's column.

Assuming Warnock wins, Dems can only afford a net loss of 1, which would probably take a landslide and then some to avoid. They're likely going to lose WV by default, OH and MT are in big trouble, and Ds have incumbents in a lot of perennial swing seats. Sure, you can argue Dems may be slight favorites in all of AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI, but you'd expect on average something to go wrong for Dems in at least one of those states.

For Dems, the goal shouldn't be about winning the Senate, but keeping their losses to a minimum so they have a good shot at winning it back come 2026 or 2028 when the Senate maps are less brutal.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593657087887671296
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594801765802614784
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594800509293953024
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594761670257086464
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593257874423050240
Bryan Steil is it then?

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1596630057258143744

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593657087887671296
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594801765802614784
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594800509293953024
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1594761670257086464
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593257874423050240
Bryan Steil is it then?

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1596630057258143744

Those don't really confirm or deconfirm anything.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1356707873171009536

I nean, here's Ted Budd filing for re-election in February 2021. Keep in mind that it had been known for years that Burr was retiring in 2022. Surely this means he's not going to run for Senate, right?

Right?

[politicallefty]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

[Atlas Force]

TIL that Baldwin and Andy Samberg are third cousins.

Yes, THAT Andy Samberg.

Also TIL that Samberg’s wife Joanna Newsom is a second cousin twice removed of Gavin Newsom.

[Gass3268]

GOP has a lot of ground still to gain in the rurals countered by the Dems having a lot of ground still to gain in the suburbs and an ever-growing Madison. Remains a tossup.

That's a trade that hurts Democrats right now, especially in the legislature. Yet if it were to continue for the next 10-15 years, will pay great dividends in the future.

[GALeftist]

Mike Gallagher said a Senate run was “not on my mindl”

Yeah idk if he bites though this obviously isn't a refusal. Next best option is probably Steil; I think he led the ticket in his district this election although he didn't do incredibly well or anything.

[Vosem]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

*Not that this represents any kind of certain thing -- it was considered very likely that Sununu would run for NH-Sen 2022 by the same people. But it does represent more than nothing.

Mike Gallagher said a Senate run was “not on my mindl”

Yeah idk if he bites though this obviously isn't a refusal. Next best option is probably Steil; I think he led the ticket in his district this election although he didn't do incredibly well or anything.

My guess is that he's trying to pull a Cory Gardner and waiting for spring 2024 to scope out what the environment's going to be like. (Furthermore, my guess is that there's a lot of possible Republican recruits who are going to wait and see who the presidential nominee is before making a decision; a majority of the congressional filing deadlines are after the presidential Super Tuesday.)

[2016]

With Gallagher having taken himself out of the running to challenge Baldwin in 2024 the most likely Republican Nominee will be Brian Steil and he would be a darn good Candidate, an A+++ Candidate if Daines can convince him to run.

There is no chance that Gallagher runs now given the newly established China Select Cmte.

[Vosem]

With Gallagher having taken himself out of the running to challenge Baldwin in 2024 the most likely Republican Nominee will be Brian Steil and he would be a darn good Candidate, an A+++ Candidate if Daines can convince him to run.

There is no chance that Gallagher runs now given the newly established China Select Cmte.

I think it might make Gallagher running more likely; it would give him concrete accomplishments in his time in Congress to point to.

(But, again, my suspicion is that lots of candidates are going to wait until after Super Tuesday before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a bid. There are people who prefer Trump, people who prefer DeSantis -- I think Gallagher goes here -- and also people who want to get a feel for the lay of the land before starting.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are old news at this point and are likely never running for elected office ever again.

My guess is that he's trying to pull a Cory Gardner and waiting for spring 2024 to scope out what the environment's going to be like. (Furthermore, my guess is that there's a lot of possible Republican recruits who are going to wait and see who the presidential nominee is before making a decision; a majority of the congressional filing deadlines are after the presidential Super Tuesday.)

This makes sense. If Trump's the nominee again that increases the likelihood Steil loses the primary.

With Gallagher having taken himself out of the running to challenge Baldwin in 2024 the most likely Republican Nominee will be Brian Steil and he would be a darn good Candidate, an A+++ Candidate if Daines can convince him to run.

There is no chance that Gallagher runs now given the newly established China Select Cmte.

I think Steil was initially expecting Gallagher to go for it with him planning on waiting for Johnson's seat to open up. Looks like the reverse is going to happen.

Hey, things change all the time in senate races. Reschenthaler got pushed out of the '22 PA race by Parnell and then again by Oz. Stephanie Bice was clearly planning on Inhofe serving out his full final term.

[Vosem]

Gallagher has notably moderated on gay rights just over the last few weeks and within GOP circles it's considered very likely that he is running, and certain that he has the right of first refusal.* If Gallagher doesn't run my guess is that there would be an effort to recruit old stalwarts who probably don't want it, like Ryan and Walker (who both remain very popular statewide, although neither has run a race in a while), and then if neither of them then a clown car with lots of random businessmen/state legislators. I could see it being Steil but he probably isn't prominent enough to clear the field.

Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are old news at this point and are likely never running for elected office ever again.

I don't know about Walker, actually; he still endorses in random Wisconsin primaries and campaigns for people all the time, including state legislative guys, and I don't think that behavior makes sense unless he wants to come back himself at some point. (OTOH, Walker is someone who believes really deeply in the ideology of the Republican Party and per everyone who knows him he has since, like, early childhood, so maybe for him it's out of a sense of duty, but if a normal politician behaved the way Walker is we'd all suspect he's keeping the door open to a comeback).