Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[UncleSam]

Crazy how for all the talk of Rs having an institutional advantage, Rs May end up winning by 4-5 and just barely winning the house while probably losing the senate. Very interesting how a few things really helped Dems in what otherwise was kind of a tough cycle for Dems:
1. College educated voters show up in midterms, and the Dem base is increasingly shifting towards this demographic
2. Dems currently have a slight edge in a bunch of states, while Rs have a slight edge in only a couple
3. Bad R candidates are more likely to be punished by college educated voters than non college educated voters
4. Rs had a wave…in deep blue and red states. NY, CA, most of the Deep South, IA, FL - lots of places look like an R wave. But none of those states had particularly competitive senate races or many toss up house seats (outside of (NY)
5. Dems unironically might try to shadow prop up Donald Trump in the 2024 R primaries, because it is clear that he is super unpopular while DeSantis is very popular with white college educated voters.

Also I’m not really seeing a serious possibility for Dems to win a majority. Could be wrong but I do think people are overrating Dems’ chances in some of these close seats that are uncalled. Again, it’s not totally impossible, but they’d need a massive string of good fortune in the remaining CA ballots.

[GALeftist]

Potentially stupid question: Why would Murk at this point not become an Independent caucusing with the Democrats?

She legitimately is a conservative, just an idiosyncratic one; as long as she can count on most Alaska libs to support her regardless (and due to her Native ties she likely can, honestly I wouldn't be surprised if she becomes a Susan Collins style thorn in the side of national Democrats if/when Alaska flips) she doesn't really have an incentive to switch

[Mardigroppa]

Hey everyone new user here. Been following Atlas for years now, but only signed up a few weeks ago, and haven't taken the time to post yet, mostly because I was scared that Tuesday was going to be a huge red wave.

Anyway this election turned out to be both better and more genuinely exciting then I expected to be, and that's great. Lets hope CCM can pull it off, it looks great.

Welcome pal, where you from? Any races in particular that you've been more interested in than others? Would be curious to hear.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590704103646064644
Amazing!

Well done Michigan. But on NOV 26 Ann Arbor is going Scarlet & Gray

Now this is a MM post I can get behind.

[Badger]

If it's 51/49 can we nuke the Filibuster on Voting Rights hopefully, Manchin only said no due to Sinema

Makes absolutely no sense to nuke the filibuster if you don't have the House and will probably lose the Senate in 2024.

But if we do hold the house by a single vote, or can squeeze even one or two Republican defectors out who don't want to be the ones in blue districts to have voted against voting rights, admittedly that second scenario is slim, then let's do it. It's the most important priority in my humble opinion to preserving American democracy and fighting this constant redistricting war. Not to mention it will help Democratic gains in 2024 plus, so long as we hold the house in 2024, which I think is a very good chance even if by narrowly loses re-election to desantis, as I expect a lot of these California and New York seats that flipped to be one term rentals. Add redistricting reform to the mix to get Fair Maps out of utah, texas, georgia, Etc etc, offset it for nominal losses in illinois, and a democratic House can still shut down the most stupid Republican proposals. Not to mention if dark Brandon gets re-elected, he'll SWAT that s*** down lightning fast with a veto pen.

We have to stop saying oh darn what will the Republicans do though if we lift the filibuster? The answer is that the filibuster is 10 times the weapon for the forces of conservatism and minority Republican rule than it could ever be used as a safeguard against Republican overreach. They want a conservative judiciary, to utterly hobble Federal Regulation of the environment, workplaces, business monopolies, etc, and to give tax breaks to the wealthy. They don't have to worry about a democratic filibuster stopping any of that. Judicial appointments aren't subject to filibuster, they can monkey wrench regulations if they control the White House and appoint industry lobbyists to give their old buddies a pass, and can pass an austerity measure tax breaks for trillionaires budget through reconciliation.

There are very few things that a republican Congress wish list could accomplish without a democratic filibuster standing in the way. Granted, some of them like a national right to work law or making significant privatization measures on social security or Medicare are scary thoughts, but frankly so unpopular that they would probably spark the Democrats taking back a trifecta and quickly repealing such laws. Or at least the chances of that are far better and more worth taking than simply letting Republicans gerrymander democracy out of existence state by state by state and generally trying to restrict ballot access.

[2016]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

[Skill and Chance]

Crazy how for all the talk of Rs having an institutional advantage, Rs May end up winning by 4-5 and just barely winning the house while probably losing the senate. Very interesting how two things really helped Dems in what otherwise was kind of a tough cycle for Dems:
1. College educated voters show up in midterms, and the Dem base is increasingly shifting towards this demographic
2. Dems currently have a slight edge in a bunch of states, while Rs have a slight edge in only a couple
3. Bad R candidates are more likely to be punished by college educated voters than non college educated voters
4. Rs had a wave…in deep blue and red states. NY, CA, most of the Deep South, IA, FL - lots of places look like an R wave. But none of those states had particularly competitive senate races or many toss up house seats (outside of (NY)
5. Dems unironically might try to shadow prop up Donald Trump in the 2024 R primaries, because it is clear that he is super unpopular while DeSantis is very popular with white college educated voters.

Also I’m not really seeing a serious possibility for Dems to win a majority. Could be wrong but I do think people are overrating Dems’ chances in some of these close seats that are uncalled. Again, it’s not totally impossible, but they’d need a massive string of good fortune in the remaining CA ballots.

Yes, they would need a 2018 trend with the late ballots in coastal California.  While that isn't impossible, there's no sign of it so far.  

[Crumpets]

Crazy how for all the talk of Rs having an institutional advantage, Rs May end up winning by 4-5 and just barely winning the house while probably losing the senate. Very interesting how two things really helped Dems in what otherwise was kind of a tough cycle for Dems:
1. College educated voters show up in midterms, and the Dem base is increasingly shifting towards this demographic
2. Dems currently have a slight edge in a bunch of states, while Rs have a slight edge in only a couple
3. Bad R candidates are more likely to be punished by college educated voters than non college educated voters
4. Rs had a wave…in deep blue and red states. NY, CA, most of the Deep South, IA, FL - lots of places look like an R wave. But none of those states had particularly competitive senate races or many toss up house seats (outside of (NY)
5. Dems unironically might try to shadow prop up Donald Trump in the 2024 R primaries, because it is clear that he is super unpopular while DeSantis is very popular with white college educated voters.

Also I’m not really seeing a serious possibility for Dems to win a majority. Could be wrong but I do think people are overrating Dems’ chances in some of these close seats that are uncalled. Again, it’s not totally impossible, but they’d need a massive string of good fortune in the remaining CA ballots.

Does anyone have any info on state totals for House votes? This has me curious who won the House popular vote in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Badger]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

There will probably be significant pressure from House leadership on reps not to resign or die.

Democrats too come to think of it.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm...

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm6EDw&s=19

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

If that's accurate, the path for a majority is probably closed. A 219/220 Republican majority is going to be an utter clownshow. Maybe that helps Biden and the Democrats for 2024.

[Mardigroppa]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.

Yikes, that's not a good sign. So the only chance is a surprise win in AZ-6 and some Cali seats? Granted Republicans still need to win many of the California toss-ups right now to have the house, as they are the bulk of the seats outstanding that we don't know the certain outcomes of. Still some hope if you want to be real, but not winning OR-5 or CO-3 infinitely makes things more difficult and we needed one of those two seats to have that chance. But I suspect there's a bit more wild rides before we know the final conclusion.

[TheReckoning]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm...

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

Damn...I think between this and Boebert's apparent victory, the chance of a Dem majority is now pretty close to zero unless the remaining CA ballots are waaaay more Democratic than expected.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm...

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

Calling this a "longtime Democratic seat" after how much it changed in redistricting is a little misleading of that headline.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

It always amazes me how Americans talk so casually about what is basically rigging the election in one’s favor. Doesn’t really matter on which side of the aisle that particular person happens to be.

Fun fact, the PV in NY translates to 14.3 seats for the Ds and 11.5 seats for the Rs. 15-11 and 14-12 is what a fair map should yield most of the time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591141780644564993

[Sestak]

Many people in this thread who have apparently never paid attention to a California election before?

[It’s so Joever]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

Enjoy the majority. Hopefully Republicans make good use of it to advance America. We have more in common than you partisans want to admit, just please don’t mass imprison us if you do get a trifecta next time.

[Horus]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590704103646064644
Amazing!

Well done Michigan. But on NOV 26 Ann Arbor is going Scarlet & Gray

Ew.

[Holmes]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Right, a majority of 2-5 seats is so “Safe”.

[Badger]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

Woah, so for all the talk of GOP gerrymandering, republicans are still going to underperform relative to their number of seats. The tipping point seat will be to the left of the PV for the first time since... 2004 maybe? I really don't know.

A lot of the GOP seats had either R candidates running uncontested or R candidates running against independents or libertarians, hence the lower D popular vote overall.

Plus still many many male votes coming in in the west, especially california, which will bump that Democratic number up. Include the total amount of democratic primary voters in any D versus D California race, or the total number of votes the winner received tuesday, whichever is greater, and you start to get a better idea.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It feels like someone needs to start compiling a list of how many Republican members are up to date on their covid vaccines for the winter.

[new_patomic]

"The House has been Safe R since election night"