Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[MillennialModerate]

Outside shot of 221 or 219. But I would say 220-215 has a 95% of being the result

[pantsaregood]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

This is somewhere between delusional and coping. Even if Republicans do take the house (likely), there are certainly going to be enough seats within a point or two that could have flipped house control one way or the other.

[Associate Justice PiT]

All not yet called races by CNN (and my very unprofessional ratings):

Dems need 20/26

Likely D - 10
AK-AL
AZ-04
CO-08
MD-06
ME-02
NM-02
NV-03
CA-06
CA-21
CA-26

Lean D - 2
WA-08
OR-06

Toss-Up - 1
AZ-01

Competitive California Seats - 9
CA-03
CA-09
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49

Lean R - 2
AZ-06
OR-05

Likely R - 2
CO-03
NY-22

I have no clue, what's left in California, so idk what to think about these, since there is not a lot counted yet. But Ds can only lose two of those races, if my other rankings are not wrong, of course.

California rurals that are nearly done are generally coming in about 5% more R than 2020 on average.  This is consistent with Newsom's margin staying about where it is now.  However, the Central Valley counties that have 75%+ reporting (if that is accurate), are 10%+ more R than 2020, and the L.A. County Hispanic seats are way closer than normal.  So I would think either California either holds where it is or drifts R until L.A. is the new NYC.  No evidence of 2018 style big late Dem gains.

Still to earth to say; these rural areas are not representative of the state at large. Right now Mueser seems to be doing a bit too well in places like Fresno and KernCounty. We shall see.

     Nobody knows the final extent yet, but some GOP swing in CA is roughly to be expected given the exit poll trends with Latino and Asian voters. Given how many of both live in CA, I would be surprised if swings of the magnitude demonstrated left the state entirely untouched.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm6EDw&s=19

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

If that's accurate, the path for a majority is probably closed. A 219/220 Republican majority is going to be an utter clownshow. Maybe that helps Biden and the Democrats for 2024.

I've got a path for Dems without OR-05:

1. AZ-06 (R)
2. AZ-01 (D)
3. OR-06 (D)
4. WA-03 (D)
5. CA-03 (R)
6. CA-09 (D)
7. CA-13 (D)
8. CA-21 (D)
9. CA-26 (D)
10. CA-49 (D)
11. CA-47 (D)
12. CA-45 (R)

CA-22, CA-27, and CA-41 would all need to go for the Democrats.

Narrow, and it's their last shot, but it's still there.

[Gass3268]

Many people in this thread who have apparently never paid attention to a California election before?

To many people think that 2020's voting behavior will be locked into stone moving forward, when really we are seeing a combo of 2018 and 2020.

[coloradocowboi]

All not yet called races by CNN (and my very unprofessional ratings):

Dems need 20/26

Likely D - 10
AK-AL
AZ-04
CO-08
MD-06
ME-02
NM-02
NV-03
CA-06
CA-21
CA-26

Lean D - 2
WA-08
OR-06

Toss-Up - 1
AZ-01

Competitive California Seats - 9
CA-03
CA-09
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49

Lean R - 2
AZ-06
OR-05

Likely R - 2
CO-03
NY-22

I have no clue, what's left in California, so idk what to think about these, since there is not a lot counted yet. But Ds can only lose two of those races, if my other rankings are not wrong, of course.

California rurals that are nearly done are generally coming in about 5% more R than 2020 on average.  This is consistent with Newsom's margin staying about where it is now.  However, the Central Valley counties that have 75%+ reporting (if that is accurate), are 10%+ more R than 2020, and the L.A. County Hispanic seats are way closer than normal.  So I would think either California either holds where it is or drifts R until L.A. is the new NYC.  No evidence of 2018 style big late Dem gains.

I am not so sure about any of this. Everything I am hearing on the ground in LA is that Bass will take the lead and grow it with outstanding votes. Young people showed up late like they usually do. I don’t think it will be a blood bath or huge reversal, but I don’t expect e.g. Linda Sanchez’s margin to remain this tight. Mike Levin even declared victory. I think the outstanding ballots lean dem. And def at the state level where the whopping 2/3 missing of alameda co alone will push Newsom back above 60

[Florida Man for Crime]

Btw all this talk about how the gop GOP performance with young voter means for the future forgets to remember how hard the 18-29 cohort from 2008 moved to the right by 2020 as well

Where's the evidence of that? Republicans are still losing 30-44 year olds too.

Look at the exits of 2008 and 2020.

Obama won 18-29 by 33 in 2008 and in 2020 those same voters who were now in their 30s voted for Biden by 5 points

You are incorrect. It is **NOT** the same voters.

It is true that people who were 18-29 in 2008 are now in their 30s and fall in the 30-44 age group.

However, not everyone who voted this year and is in the age 30-44 age group voted in 2008.

In general, voter turnout goes up when people become older. Only a small proportion of 18-29 year olds voted in 2008, and now a larger proportion of those same people are voting as they become older.

So the current age 30-44 age category, which exit polls say voted D+5 this year, includes 2 different types of people:

Group #1) It includes people who voted in 2008, who voted strongly for Obama back then.

Group #2) It also includes people who did NOT vote in 2008, and who did not vote in general in their teens/twenties, and only started to vote in their 30s (or 40s).

Group #2 is more Republican than Group #1 (and Group #2 also is less college educated, whereas people who were college students were over-represented in Group #1). The fact that Group #2 has entered the electorate is largely what explains the difference between the "millennial vote" in 2008 and 2022. Your analysis could only be valid if Group #2 did no exist, and everyone was in Group #1.



To some extent, the same thing will likely happen with Gen Z in the future. However, since (apparently) the turnout among 18-29 year olds in the current election is so high, there will be fewer people in the future Gen Z Group #2 who did not vote in 2020/2022 but who may vote in 2036. So that will likely make it harder for Republicans to reduce the Dem margins among Gen Z in the future than it has been for Republicans to reduce the Dem margins among millennials.


Of course, another aspect of the story is that the parties themselves have changed, and generally have moved to the left (in particular on social issues). Republicans are no longer trying to ban same sex marriage, for example. And even regarding something like health care, Republicans are no longer openly really planning to repeal Obamacare. If they were, they would almost certainly have done worse among the 30-44 age group in the present election than they actually did. So even to the degree that some millennials have switched to vote R, it is not necessarily because they have become more conservative, but because the GOP has (to some extent) adapted by shifting left.


Finally, as an aside, exit polls are not entirely reliable, so you should not take the particular exact numbers in them too literally other than as a general loosely approximate guide.

[Frodo]

With Democrats retaining the chamber a receding dream, a GOP house majority of one would be hilarious:

Republicans: 218
Democrats: 217

Realistically speaking, can we get there?  

[Skill and Chance]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level. 

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable. 

It always amazes me how Americans talk so casually about what is basically rigging the election in one’s favor. Doesn’t really matter on which side of the aisle that particular person happens to be.

Fun fact, the PV in NY translates to 14.3 seats for the Ds and 11.5 seats for the Rs. 15-11 and 14-12 is what a fair map should yield most of the time.

Has anyone actually calculated what the results would have been on the original Hochulmander?  With the statewide margins being this unexpectedly close, it seems entirely possible that map could have backfired and given Republicans a majority of the delegation.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Not to be dismissive of the OR-05 thing, but local news in CO called CO-03 for Frisch (this was after other people rescinded their call). I would wait for the AP to do their thing.

[😥]

Based on NYT data this would be my ranking

195 seats NYT has called for Democrats

Democrats are heavily favored in these districts
196. AK-AL
197. AZ-04
198. CA-06
199. CA-09
200. CA-21
201. CA-26
202. CA-35
203. CA-38
204. CO-08
205. ME-02
206. MD-06
207. CA-47
208. CA-49
209. NV-01
210. NV-03
211. NV-04
212. OR-06

Tossup, but Democrats slighty favored
213. CA-13
214. WA-03
215. AZ-01

Pure Tossup
216. CA-22
217. CA-41

Tossup, but Republicans slightly favored
218. AZ-06 (median seat)
219. CA-27

Republicans are heavily favored in these districts
220. CA-03
221. OR-05
222. CA-45
223. NY-22
224. CO-03

So by my estimates 218-217 R is the most likely outcome, but we'll see, as I always say

[President Johnson]

Not sure whether this has been mentioned before, but it looks like Paul LePage not only lost in Maine, but pretty much got clobbered. Mills leads by double digits: 56.2% to 41.5%, with 92% of the vote in. Great to see this guy cratered big time!

[Nerd]

I think everyone is being a bit too bearish on AZ-6.  Pima mail ballots have been heavily Dem and could easily push Hodges over the 5k deficit he has.

[TheReckoning]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Right, a majority of 2-5 seats is so “Safe”.

Safe by probability, not by Margin. The Senate is now pretty close to Safe D, and they’ll be lucky if they don’t end up with a tied senate.

[Mardigroppa]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Not really. It was a toss-up all throughout, especially when Republicans fell well short of their numbers. Nothing about it screamed safe-r whatsoever. Every indicator pointed towards a toss-up, with the more astute analysts indicating that the house was likely to not be led by anything more than a 1-3 seat republican majority if they do take the house, which still holds up, and always left the door open to Dems possibly retaining the House. So no, it was not a clear Safe R since election night.

[2016]

Now some Clowns here are questioning the Oregon-5 Call. What is wrong with you people!

[Alben Barkley]

Rs actually having the slimmest majority possible would be comical.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/adampwillis/status/1591149842755366912

[😥]

With Democrats retaining the chamber a receding dream, a GOP house majority of one would be hilarious:

Republicans: 218
Democrats: 217

Realistically speaking, can we get there?  

I think as for now this is the most likely outcome, so yes we can

[Badger]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Not really. It was a toss-up all throughout, especially when Republicans fell well short of their numbers. Nothing about it screamed safe-r whatsoever. Every indicator pointed towards a toss-up, with the more astute analysts indicating that the house was likely to not be led by anything more than a 1-3 seat republican majority if they do take the house, which still holds up, and always left the door open to Dems possibly retaining the House. So no, it was not a clear Safe R since election night.

You're new so let me show you around. You have just encountered the reckoning. I will summarize by saying to ignore everything and anything he says. Best just to use that little ignore button in the upper right hand corner now to preserve your temper insanity. Absolutely nothing of value will be lost by doing so.

[TheReckoning]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Not really. It was a toss-up all throughout, especially when Republicans fell well short of their numbers. Nothing about it screamed safe-r whatsoever. Every indicator pointed towards a toss-up, with the more astute analysts indicating that the house was likely to not be led by anything more than a 1-3 seat republican majority if they do take the house, which still holds up, and always left the door open to Dems possibly retaining the House. So no, it was not a clear Safe R since election night.

In my eyes, it was safe R. Republicans were leading in a majority of races all night, and I saw no reason to see why Democrats would flip those races while Republicans wouldn’t flip any of the ones Democrats were leading in.

[Mardigroppa]

House has been pretty clearly Safe R for a since election night, I don’t know how this is surprising.

Not really. It was a toss-up all throughout, especially when Republicans fell well short of their numbers. Nothing about it screamed safe-r whatsoever. Every indicator pointed towards a toss-up, with the more astute analysts indicating that the house was likely to not be led by anything more than a 1-3 seat republican majority if they do take the house, which still holds up, and always left the door open to Dems possibly retaining the House. So no, it was not a clear Safe R since election night.

You're new so let me show you around. You have just encountered the reckoning. I will summarize by saying to ignore everything and anything he says. Best just to use that little ignore button in the upper right hand corner now to preserve your temper insanity. Absolutely nothing of value will be lost by doing so.

Well I was smart enough to disregard MillenialModerate, haven't heard of these other people, but yeah I honestly can't be too sure out here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My thoughts on the outstanding House races in California:

CA-03; Lean R. In the counties fully in, Kiley is outrunning Trump in what already is a Trump district. However, the counties in are extremely small and not necessarily representative. Still much rather be Kiley, pretty close to likely R.

CA-06: Safe D, not much to say

CA-09: Harder seems in a pretty good position right now leading by 13%, and given the national results, he should be just fine. It also seems like so far, Padilla is underrunning Biden by quite a bit in San Joaquin County so Harder may grow his margin. Likely D.

CA-13: Open Biden + 11 seat. Currently things are almost exactly tied. Gray is outrunning Padilla in Merced so far which is a good sign for him. Also seems like the outstanding votes should skew gray just based on which counties are in. Lean D I'd rather be gray.

CA-15: Uncalled D v D race in a seat over Biden + 50. Uber Safe D.

CA-21: Costa currently leads by 10% with 75% of the vote in. This seat is over Biden + 20 so given the national picture he has this, safe D.

CA-22: Interesting one to watch. Currently, Valadao leads by 8 points. Valadao was able to win in a Biden + 10 seat in 2020, but Rudy Salas strength as a state senator (especially relative to TJ Cox) and the district shifting 3 points bluer doesn't help Valadao. The Kern County portion is only 29% in and is obviously going to end up being way bluer than Salas + 3 (and bluer than Meuser + 25). On the flip side, the Kings part is almost all in and while Valadao is overperforming 2020 partisanship, it's not by as much as he needs. I'd rather be Salas.

CA-26: Given what's going on nationally, Brownley will be fine

CA-27: This one is hard because we don't have any county level breakdown and you have the conflicting factor of candidate dynamics being strongly in Garcia's favor but partisanship working strongly in Smith's. Garcia currently has a lead but the remaining vote out of LA County is far more D friendly, the question is by how much. It may not even end up being that close, but this is one of the races where I have the least confidence so tossup, maybe tilt Garcia.

CA-34: Safe D

CA-35: Safe D

CA-38: Safe D

CA-40: Young Kim has a huge lead, most have called it for her, she should win even though it's a Biden seat. She overperformed the top of the ticket huge in 2020 and this district is a lot redder.

CA-41: This district is entirely nested within Riverside County which again makes things a bit trickier to analyze. Right now, Calvert is up by 1% or just over 1k votes with about half the vote in. Currently, Meuser and Padilla are virtually tied in Riverside and while it is a Biden + 8 County, it did vote narrowly for Yes on the recall. In 2018, Cox narrowly carried it as well. This makes me think that the remaining vote will be pretty even, but it is clear Rollins is running ahead of Padilla and Newsom big time in the district. True tossup.

CA-45: Steele was favored coming into election day, and she has a pretty big lead of + 9 with 60% of the vote in. It seems like the remaining vote will be slightly D favorable but not enough for Chen to catch up. Steele is clearly favored.

CA-47: Porter is ahead by 1.6% with about 60% of the vote in. As I said earlier, the remaining OC vote should be slightly favorable to Dems and pad her lead. Also with what's going on nationally, it seems like she should be ok.

CA-49: Basically the same situation as Porter, but I don't think we'll see much of a blue-shift in San Diego County and he wins by a similar or slightly larger margin than his current 3% lead.

Again, reminder to everyone that in Cali, each individual County counts ballots how they want. This means that as more are counted, some areas may shift right while others shift left; there is a counting bias but it changes from county to county. Take everything with a huge grain of salt.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

[President Johnson]

Rs actually having the slimmest majority possible would be comical.

In this likely outcome I honestly don't see McCarthy having nearly the votes he needs for speaker.