Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Imo while Chavez-DeRemer is clearly favored, that call seems a bit premature unless they have information we do not (which they very well could).

Also, I think at this point it's more likely that Democrats are just doing really terrible in Clackamas County than there being some sort of error, though a disproportionate amount of the outstanding Clackamas vote may be closer to the Portland area and hence more D.

[😥]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

It was called by DDHQ, but they can be wrong. It all depends on Pima ballots. Ciscomani is slighty favored, but Engel absolutely can make it

[pantsaregood]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

AZ started a tradition of having prematurely called races back in 2020, apparently. Fox News called it for Biden way too early.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

     House leadership has the option of not bringing votes up if they don't think they will win them. Losing the House costs Biden most of the ability he has to enact his agenda.

[Gass3268]

There is a little bit more in Clark County than was thought, plus here are the breakdowns of what's coming.

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1591152593560301568?s=20&t=R6l9JOvGK9Gv...

[Splash]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

No, I don't think so. The NYT hasn't called it yet and they track the AP calls. I think the reason for uncertainty largely has to do with how many ballots from Pima there are left to count.

[Hammy]

Any update on Arizona or Nevada numbers/probabilities?

[Mardigroppa]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

I mean the election day vote seemingly has been pretty maxed out. And Pima is the second biggest dem county out here, it contains Tucson after all. The only other question mark is Cochise. Although how that Pima County vote will break down is hard to say, other people here may know more about that than me, but it's possible it could end up being gradually closer, but whether it's enough to win? I don't know if it would be enough, but the possibility is out there, it's definitely not a callable race however.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

Almost all the vote left is from Pima County. Still think Ciscomani is favored, but when the AP called I think they made the assumption the remaining batches of votes would break similar to 2020 which has so far not been true. Also in the 2 counties fully in so far Ciscomani is narrowly underrunning Trump's margin.

It's kinda ridiculous how they called this but not AZ-04, where Stanton is very clearly going to win re-election no matter what the remaining Maricopa dumps yield.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591153128061403136?s=20&t=Y0WC48W...

Speaking of AZ-06, but this is a drop in the bucket in terms of votes.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

None of the Dem agenda will come up for a vote, though, if the GOP is in the majority.  So that wouldn't matter.

[oldtimer]

Based on NYT data this would be my ranking

195 seats NYT has called for Democrats

Democrats are heavily favored in these districts
196. AK-AL
197. AZ-04
198. CA-06
199. CA-09
200. CA-21
201. CA-26
202. CA-35
203. CA-38
204. CO-08
205. ME-02
206. MD-06
207. CA-47
208. CA-49
209. NV-01
210. NV-03
211. NV-04
212. OR-06

Tossup, but Democrats slighty favored
213. CA-13
214. WA-03
215. AZ-01

Pure Tossup
216. CA-22
217. CA-41

Tossup, but Republicans slightly favored
218. AZ-06 (median seat)
219. CA-27

Republicans are heavily favored in these districts
220. CA-03
221. OR-05
222. CA-45
223. NY-22
224. CO-03

So by my estimates 218-217 R is the most likely outcome, but we'll see, as I always say

I got the same numbers R218.
Valadao, Newhouse and Kean would probably vote for the Democrats, giving Democrats in practice 220.

So practically nothing changed, it's business as usual.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Any update on Arizona or Nevada numbers/probabilities?

For Senate? Kelly all but a sure thing, CCM heavily favored unless the remaining Clark ballots behave very oddly.

[Lief 🗽]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm...

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

Regardless of who ends up winning, that’s a wildly premature call.

[oldtimer]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

None of the Dem agenda will come up for a vote, though, if the GOP is in the majority.  So that wouldn't matter.

Why would Liberal Republicans not vote for Pelosi for Speaker ?
They only need 1 Republican to jump ship on that vote and there are plenty of candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

AP calls MD-06 for Trone.

[😥]

The one is thing I'm sure about is that McCarthy will not be elected Speaker if House is 218-217 R majority. I even doesn't think he will be able to get Speakership if it 219 or 220 R

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

I mean, they have a point, but also, gift horse in the mouth and all that. This was more compelling as a 2020 postmortem than this time around.

[MillennialModerate]

Any update on Arizona or Nevada numbers/probabilities?

Betting markets have it as:
AZ-SEN: 94-7 Kelly
AZ-GOV: 65-45 Hobbs
NV-SEN: 85-17 CCM

I’d say AZ SEN is 98% Kelly, AZ GOV is 50/50, NV SEN is Lean CCM but that’s if Clark County votes are what we think they are.

The House appears like it’ll finish at 220-215

[Associate Justice PiT]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

None of the Dem agenda will come up for a vote, though, if the GOP is in the majority.  So that wouldn't matter.

Why would Liberal Republicans not vote for Pelosi for Speaker ?
They only need 1 Republican to jump ship on that vote and there are plenty of candidates.

     Why would they run as a Republican if they were to turn around and vote for a Democrat to be Speaker? Personnel votes like that tend to fall neatly along partisan lines. No politician worth their salt will just instantly backstab the party that worked to get them elected.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

No, just DDHQ and like the OR-5 call, it was premature regardless of who ultimately ends up winning (albeit not unjustifiably so like the OR-5 one is).

[It’s so Joever]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

[Oryxslayer]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

This isn't just directed at the Jacobin, but also others: Suburban today in American does not always equal wealthy or prosperous. Urban and rural does not equal poor. Everything that has happened in the past 30 years has broken down the classic divide in much of the country.

[wbrocks67]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

Almost all the vote left is from Pima County. Still think Ciscomani is favored, but when the AP called I think they made the assumption the remaining batches of votes would break similar to 2020 which has so far not been true. Also in the 2 counties fully in so far Ciscomani is narrowly underrunning Trump's margin.

It's kinda ridiculous how they called this but not AZ-04, where Stanton is very clearly going to win re-election no matter what the remaining Maricopa dumps yield.

AP didn't call AZ-06. It was DDHQ