Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Spectator]

I am enjoying the right-wing taking heads concerned about voting blocs. We're a half step away from a 'How can we win over lazy woke pink haired groomers?' Fox segment.

Of course you can't make inroads unless you completely change what you stand for. You can't generate a moral panic. You can't meme yourself into relevance.

Playing identity politics fails when you make it about mercilessly attacking a perceived identity. It mobilises voters against you.

Dismissing any valid criticism of Trump as Trump Derangement Syndrome probably isn’t helping either.

[CanadianDemocrat]

I saw James Carville earlier tonight ready to completely write Florida off. He seemed to think there might even be more hope for Mississippi going forward. Any truth to this?

It seems unwise to completely give up on Florida. But also, Mississippi's demographic trends are more favorable to Ds than Florida's. So the comparison is...not entirely crazy.

Florida is heavily suburban and has a small rural population, which benefits Democrats across the rest of the country. For some reason, it is still a likely Republican state.

[Nerd]

I feel pretty bullish about AZ-6 with the way Pima drops have been.  The other counties are mostly exhausted, so slight advantage even to Hodges given 100k+ of Pima D+30 mail ballots, of which a significant fraction are in AZ-6.

AZ-1 is also there if we beat the conservative estimate on Republican margin in Maricopa election drop-offs.  If they're closer to even or even D+ versus R+5-10.  

I'm also a bit skeptical about Newsom's margins across California.  Finished counties are only Northern rurals that moved right ~10 points from Biden 2020, ~4 points from Newsom 2021, and ~5 points right from Newsom 2018.  I'd assume some of that is turnout advantages given Dem's base in that region is much more minority-rich than reliable college-educated voters, which could be less of a problem in some areas of OC.  

Biden 2020 and Newsom 2021 would suggest a 19 point victory while Newsom 2018 would suggest an 18 point victory.  That would mean we could expect a statewide shift of at least 4 points.  I think this might actually be a bit conservative since in this environment, I could easily see Newsom winning by 20 or even matching his previous 23.  

If you factor in the different Dem bases in SoCal, it could be mean an even bigger shift than 4 points and closer to 10.  Additionally, you can also use the rural shift (-4) on Newsom's previous margins where you get an expected 5-6 point shift left of OC and 10 points in LA.

CA-45 is right now R+10, CA-41 is R+1, CA-47 is D+2, CA-49 is D+4, CA-27 is R+12.  Under the conservative assumptions, I think Ds clearly have a good chance in each of these districts.  

CA-13 and CA-9 are also looking good for Dems, which leaves CA-3 which is a tough lift and CA-22 which has mostly exhausted Valadao's base in Kings county and is looking good for Salas.  

I don't think it would be particularly unlikely for a Dem shift to sweep most of these races towards them.  

WA-3 is looking somewhat good to go Dem given the counties left and MGP's need to just hold Clark.  

That just leaves NY-22 and OR-5 where we need to see more Clackamas.  If the mail ballots approach anywhere near Biden's margin, Mcleod-Skinner has it, but the most recent small batch was D+2.  In the former, there's 8k ballots in Onondoga (Syracuse) with a lead of a little less than half of that for the Republican.  A 50% mail ballot margin out of a D+20 county isn't unheard of but also not modal, so likely Republican hold.

Overall accounting:
Solid D - 212

Solid R - 214

Contestable (From D to R likely):
CA-22
AZ-6
CA-41
WA-03
CA-27
AZ-1 (Tipping Point)
OR-5
CA-45
NY-22

Math is still there for both Dem and Reps, and there are multiple paths since I think the ordering of some of these districts is highly debatable with our current incomplete information on the outvote.

[philly09]

Considering that Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024 and how close he came to losing in 2018, shouldn't we be a bit more bullish? A good nominee could make Texas close for the Democrats.

[Yoda]

CNN says Masters needs to win 58-60% of the remaining 540K votes to win. I don't see how this can't be called at this point.

I want Fox to be the first to call it again. In the middle of Tucker's show. He starts to foam at the mouth, eyebrows even more scrunched up than normal....

[BlueSwan]

Considering that Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024 and how close he came to losing in 2018, shouldn't we be a bit more bullish? A good nominee could make Texas close for the Democrats.

I'm afraid it is still too early. 2018 was a blue wave AND this was before we realized that Beto isn't all that. At the time Beto had MASSIVE buzz. So for 2018 we actually did have a strong candidate against a horrible GOP candidate. But sure, we could make it close. Winning seems like a long shot.

[Earthling]

It's possible when the Republican Party really goes down to the levels of party Civil War between DeSantis and Trump.

[Dumbo]

Oh, man, I just realized - we get another two years to very possibly replace Thomas and/or Alito, don't we? Not to mention continuing Biden's unassailable judicial appointment streak. I've had my head buried so deep in House results, I completely forgot about that part of it.

It's the last hurrah, isn't it?

[jamestroll]

Virginia Democrats will need to improve a bit in their rural showing. They did a bit better on Tuesday then November 2nd, 2021 but there is work to be done. But it may be hard to compare as there were no statewide races in Virginia nor ballot measures or anything.

But I should note that St. Louis County, MO combined vote did vote to the left of Loudoun, Va and Prince William County, Va.  In 2020, St. Louis County voted to their right. So some normalization has occurred in Nova.

Speaking of which:



And this is under new more GOP friendly lines.. if it were understand lines, it would have quite close! Yikes. Gunby was a good candidate though.

To be put this in perspective, Ann Wagner won 60% to 37% ten years ago.

Wouldn't it be ironic if MO-02 flips under these lines in 2026 under a GOP President?

[jamestroll]

Anyone getting NY-22 2020 vibes from CO-03? Right down to the similarities between the pairs of candidates.

No, Frisch is a pretty weak candidate whereas Brindisi was an exceptionally strong one.

They have similar vibes though.

Agree to disagree.

IIRC Frisch is most notable for getting blackmailed by a local businessman who videotaped him cheating on his wife.

Never knew about that. I wonder if that scandal might have gotten enough people to hold their nose for Boebert.

Probably.

But Aspen Adam campaign from Boebert was probably enough to cause Frisch to trail Polis enough in Pueblo County to lose.

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-06 numbers looking solid today.

OR-CD-05 still in the air?...

Absolutely no idea of how many outstanding votes there are now by county, but here is the latest from Clackamas...

Clackamas County CD-05: 11/09/22 8:15 AM

TV=    78,162
PUB=  38,218    (48.9%)
DEM=  39,714    (50.8%)

Clackamas County CD-05: 11/09/22 5:30 PM

TV=    89,044                          (+10,882)
PUB=  43,439     (48.8%)         (+5,221)
DEM=  45,360    (50.9%)          (+5,646)

Clackamas County CD-05: 11/10/22 6:00 PM

TV=    104,582                         (+15,538) 
PUB=  51,089  (48.9%)             (+7,650)               
DEM=  53,211  (50.9%)             (+7,851)         

[Yoda]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Yes, bc R's were seriously predicting a "bloodbath".  Talking about a repeat of 2010. How many seats did dems lose that year, 63???

You guys might net 6.

Meanwhile, we are going to end up gaining a Senate seat when Warnock wins, picking up 2 or 3 governors, complete control of 2 state legislatures and partial control of another. Oh, and we beat every election-denying SoS candidate too.

[Podgy the Bear]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

[jamestroll]

Maybe I'll run against boebert. I'm more working class by far than Frisch and do not live in Pitkin County, though very close.

And I love Hispanics.

And ideologically I'm not that far left of the district.

[Brittain33]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

I’m skeptical. Democrats did so badly in New York that I don’t think a gerrymander would have saved more than a few.

[Yoda]

What will the Dems 2024 House odds start at? I would say in the 60-65% range. They have so many swing district entrenched incumbents who will be tough to dislodge (with the exception of a seat or 2 that of course will flip anyway.

If Trump is on the ballot, the GOP is absolutely cooked in NY-3,4,17 and probably struggling in 19 and 22. Don't even get me started on NJ-7, PA-1, NE-2 and tons of other suburban seats in Cali (if we don't win them this year). These NY/NJ Rs cannot go MAGA without being completely fried in November 2024 and if they don't go MAGA, the base will hate them. Outside of winning the House with 219 or more, this is the best Dem scenario.

Yes, the GOP will get seats from the NC redraw, Dems need to counter in MN and WI (once they win the court in April). MN-1,8 and WI- 1,3 seem most likely to get more Dem.

Ohio will probably have a redraw too, but its also likely their will be an attempt to get a new redistricting process put on the ballot.

I'm going to involve myself in this. Arnold lead the last ballot initiative and while it was a sincere effort on his part, the wording left open the glaring possibility that the republicans would do exactly what they did. Ohio voters (overwhelmingly) did exactly what John Roberts told voters they could do if they wanted to ban gerrymandering in their states and we still got gerrymandered maps.

The only logical course of action from here is a new constitutional amendment that takes the power out of the hands of politicians and to a commission of non-partisan experts. Get it passed in '24 and have new, truly fair maps that would produce an 8-7 R/D delegation in a neutral year come '26.

[Logical]

Is Matt Gaetz accusing the Republican leadership of being Joe Biden's Hibernian sleeper agents?
https://twitter.com/mattgaetz/status/1590712327669952516

[Podgy the Bear]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

I’m skeptical. Democrats did so badly in New York that I don’t think a gerrymander would have saved more than a few.

I think the poor electoral performance in New York was temporary and the Democrats will bounce back in 2024.  They'll pick up some of the seats but the reverse gerrymander keeps a few of those seats out of reach until the next redistricting.

[Person Man]

Is Matt Gaetz accusing the Republican leadership of being Joe Biden's Hibernian sleeper agents?
https://twitter.com/mattgaetz/status/1590712327669952516

The Anglo-Saxons killed many a Gaul in the 300 years after the Romans became unable to protect them from them.

[Spectator]

The easy solution for Dems if the GOP redraws the maps in Ohio and North Carolina is to take a scythe to MD-01 and go back to the drawing board in New York, where Democrats still easily held a supermajority in the legislature.

[Person Man]

Where should the I-13(AZNV) races go today? How many votes are left in each state? Will CCM get the 8900 she needs today? Will the Captain keep a big enough lead and have a big enough dump to get him to win today? Should Hobbs keep afloat? I really don’t care that much about Sisolack.
What should be called first the House or the Senate (R,RO,D)?

[Person Man]

The easy solution for Dems if the GOP redraws the maps in Ohio and North Carolina is to take a scythe to MD-01 and go back to the drawing board in New York, where Democrats still easily held a supermajority in the legislature.

It is almost if now, even more so than before, that the judicial enshrining of the State Legislator Supremacy in redistricting into the Constitution might not be as a bad as it could be in theory.

[Spectator]

Where should the I-13(AZNV) races go today? How many votes are left in each state? Will CCM get the 8900 she needs today? Will the Captain keep a big enough lead and have a big enough dump to get him to win today? Should Hobbs keep afloat? I really don’t care that much about Sisolack.
What should be called first the House or the Senate (R,RO,D)?

The House probably won’t be called for weeks because of California.

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a projection for Kelly today. CCM probably takes the lead today, maybe a projection, but wouldnt expect that until Saturday since the media will probably be cautious there.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, all!

Are we done yet? Can I finally go out and play?

[jamestroll]

Can Biden win Colorado by 20 points in 2024?  Really seems like it's zooming left faster than I thought, based on these results.

Probably not 20 points... but could vote to the left of IL but will be very close to that.

In some ways I liked VA better than CO. CO is getting much to much of a pacific northwest attitude.