Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

Tough to know how hard they have to veer left on the issues, but they must drop the crackpot religious crap. They don't have to abandon Christianity, but they have to tone down the ExtremeRepublican fake version of Christianity. That is a dying monster.

As a marketer, I’ll also say Christianity in general needs to clean up its act or it will lose a lot of adherents. I myself became a Buddhist a while back and think there will be plenty who follow me if the church can’t find its proper place in contemporary society fast (which saddens me because unlike a lot of other leftists I’m actually a big fan of properly done organized religion)

You don't need to trash a faith because of the actions of a relatively small group (several million out of 2.4 billion Christians worldwide).  It's not like Buddhism is perfect--look at what's going on in Myanmar with the Rohingya.  

And back to the political aspect (which is the point of this forum), leftists don't need to knock people who are involved in an organized religion.  It's no different from the other side that trashes atheists and agnostics.  In any political election, the "God and country side" will win out over the opposite stand.

Well I can say this :

I would rather have Cardinal Wilton Gregory than Franklin Graham.

So would I.

Problem is : When people think of American Christianity, they tihnk of the Mega Churches, the Franklin Grahams, The Joel Osteens.

They don't think of Cardinal Gregory. The reason is because America was build on low church protestantism. That was our religious heritage.

Heck, not because i'm catholic myself,

The catholics have a far more nuanced view about abortion, and gay marriage than one might think. But no one hears about them in this country, because...

Reverend William J. Barber II is a Christian, political, and does so in ways more aligned with the teaching of Jesus Christ. One has to seriously ask why he isn't one of the faces of Christian politcal activism.

He is for Democrats. Hasn’t he spoken at multiple DNCs?

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1591062849954381824

Lmao! Dems really not out here giving a f***. The GOP is heading toward full meltdown mode.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

Tough to know how hard they have to veer left on the issues, but they must drop the crackpot religious crap. They don't have to abandon Christianity, but they have to tone down the ExtremeRepublican fake version of Christianity. That is a dying monster.

As a marketer, I’ll also say Christianity in general needs to clean up its act or it will lose a lot of adherents. I myself became a Buddhist a while back and think there will be plenty who follow me if the church can’t find its proper place in contemporary society fast (which saddens me because unlike a lot of other leftists I’m actually a big fan of properly done organized religion)

You don't need to trash a faith because of the actions of a relatively small group (several million out of 2.4 billion Christians worldwide).  It's not like Buddhism is perfect--look at what's going on in Myanmar with the Rohingya.  

And back to the political aspect (which is the point of this forum), leftists don't need to knock people who are involved in an organized religion.  It's no different from the other side that trashes atheists and agnostics.  In any political election, the "God and country side" will win out over the opposite stand.

Well I can say this :

I would rather have Cardinal Wilton Gregory than Franklin Graham.

So would I.

Problem is : When people think of American Christianity, they tihnk of the Mega Churches, the Franklin Grahams, The Joel Osteens.

They don't think of Cardinal Gregory. The reason is because America was build on low church protestantism. That was our religious heritage.

Heck, not because i'm catholic myself,

The catholics have a far more nuanced view about abortion, and gay marriage than one might think. But no one hears about them in this country, because...

Reverend William J. Barber II is a Christian, political, and does so in ways more aligned with the teaching of Jesus Christ. One has to seriously ask why he isn't one of the faces of Christian politcal activism.

Because he's part of a denomination that is considered to be " not Christian " enough as in holding onto the basic Christian beliefs as defined as the infallibilty of Scripture, et cetera by Evangelical Protestants.

Also, His denomination is declining. The Mainline Churches have been decliniing for years.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

  Bonkposting in the middle of the Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread. We haven't seen this since there was talk about a Michigan MILF contingent a few pages back, never change Atlas, never change.

Gotta do something while we wait for Nevada and Arizona to hurry their asses up

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

ideally attached to legs and a torso, I hope

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

  Bonkposting in the middle of the Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread. We haven't seen this since there was talk about a Michigan MILF contingent a few pages back, never change Atlas, never change.

Tbh this is probably some of the tamest bonkposting I've seen out of Atlas.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies). 

ideally attached to legs and a torso, I hope

Sadly no head or body.

[Lognog]

Underrated now that it's official: who will get appointed to AG in PA. Needs to be confirmed, but with Dems on cusp of state house, makes it a bit easier too. I continue to think Shapiro picks Lamb.

I 100% agree, I've been saying this for a while

[😥]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

  Bonkposting in the middle of the Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread. We haven't seen this since there was talk about a Michigan MILF contingent a few pages back, never change Atlas, never change.

Tbh this is probably some of the tamest bonkposting I've seen out of Atlas.

it hasn't been the same since Joe Cunningham was voted out

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats have retaken a supermajority in the Vermont legislature by a wide margin.  Given the likelihood of a 50/50 Senate and the Republican governor's reelection, they would be wise to pass a same party senate appointment law (in a way that would cover Sanders as a Democrat because he caucuses Dem). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

Another question for my peeps: when's the last time we had an election cycle where the Haus was (potentially) this close in terms of seats? (I guess besides 2020)

[SCNCmod]

It appears most undecided House races are in AZ & CA. Considering these states have such a high number of Mail in/ Drop Box votes remaining... Is it not more likely than not, that these races are probably going to mostly break in the same direction.

 (In other words- Post election day Presidential popular vote for Dem candidate seems to have grown by 1M+ votes in recent elections.. and those votes predominantly come from CA & the bordering states. So wouldn't they mostly break to Dems is the past trend holds true... Or to Republicans if mail in/drop box votes have significantly changed this year & now more friendly to Rs based on changing voting habits in general).

... Is my take on this likely on point- or incorrect because there are many factors that may cause the makeup of late counted votes to vary quite a bit from race to race)?

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

It should be noted that College educated Christian’s attend Church at higher rates than non educated Christians.

[Mardigroppa]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

Absolutely unforgivable Dems didn't do better there. That's my tribe's county out there! We're talking about people that struggle with kidnappings, dentistry, were't born with great habits, have rampant alcoholism issues, struggle with getting enough resources from the local government, and don't have money to pay for funerals when someone else eventually kicks the bucket. And they're a harder to reach demographic at that too that trends college uneducated in an era where Republicans are trying to make rampant inroads on those minority communities when you have Republicans trying to make sneaky inroads into this demographic. These people are worse off than African Americans in quite a bit of considerable ways and it's unfortunate. And the list goes on and on with the issues Native Americans face. Not to mention that vote by mail doesn't work as well as you think it does there, and there are many more election hurdles towards getting out their vote, as they struggle to have sufficient representation amidst many legal and social barriers. Dems have no excuse for this underperformance.

[SCNCmod]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

This feels like the post realistic of all the various predictions i've seen so far.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

Absolutely unforgivable Dems didn't do better there. That's my tribe's county out there! We're talking about people that struggle with kidnappings, dentistry, were't born with great habits, have rampant alcoholism issues, struggle with getting enough resources from the local government, and don't have money to pay for funerals when someone else eventually kicks the bucket. And they're a harder to reach demographic at that too that trends college uneducated in an era where Republicans are trying to make rampant inroads on those minority communities when you have Republicans trying to make sneaky inroads into this demographic. These people are worse off than African Americans in quite a bit of considerable ways and it's unfortunate. And the list goes on and on with the issues Native Americans face. Not to mention that vote by mail doesn't work as well as you think it does there, and there are many more election hurdles towards getting out their vote, as they struggle to have sufficient representation amidst many legal and social barriers. Dems have no excuse for this underperformance.

Sounds to me like the next Dem nominee in MT-1 should be a native promising to work on local and native issues.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats have retaken a supermajority in the Vermont legislature by a wide margin.  Given the likelihood of a 50/50 Senate and the Republican governor's reelection, they would be wise to pass a same party senate appointment law (in a way that would cover Sanders as a Democrat because he caucuses Dem). 

Nevada should also do this in December if possible. 

[SCNCmod]

** I think mail in / drop off stats from 2020 are uniquely higher R% than usual due to pandemic... and 2022 will be more typical of pre-2020 elections which tilt in higher % to Dems.

[Mardigroppa]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

Absolutely unforgivable Dems didn't do better there. That's my tribe's county out there! We're talking about people that struggle with kidnappings, dentistry, were't born with great habits, have rampant alcoholism issues, struggle with getting enough resources from the local government, and don't have money to pay for funerals when someone else eventually kicks the bucket. And they're a harder to reach demographic at that too that trends college uneducated in an era where Republicans are trying to make rampant inroads on those minority communities when you have Republicans trying to make sneaky inroads into this demographic. These people are worse off than African Americans in quite a bit of considerable ways and it's unfortunate. And the list goes on and on with the issues Native Americans face. Not to mention that vote by mail doesn't work as well as you think it does there, and there are many more election hurdles towards getting out their vote, as they struggle to have sufficient representation amidst many legal and social barriers. Dems have no excuse for this underperformance.

Sounds to me like the next Dem nominee in MT-1 should be a native promising to work on local and native issues.

It would be just barely enough to get them some thousands more votes, it shouldn't be the priority, although I'd love to see it. Those sorts of messages can play well with WWC voters anyhoo since these are universal struggles people have. Even if some of them *do* end up disproportionately affecting Native Americans, although there are many more elements than what the local government can always do. The tribe also has some corruption issues for instance... Oh and if you know anything about reservations, it's really a purely campaign by local basis, everything on those reservations are done by pen and paper. Digital outreach is very hard, and that's one areas where they are going to lag behind in this day and age. Somehow with even more backwards business practices than Japanese companies.

But yes, some Dems with better responses to crime would also be a great crossover message for these reservations and the general voters, if someone could nail that down..

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

Praying for MGP in WA-03 if only for the cool fact about the whole Pacific coast going blue.

[Skill and Chance]

** I think mail in / drop off stats from 2020 are uniquely higher R% than usual due ti pandemic... and 2022 will be more typical of pre-2020 elections which tilt in higher % to Dems.

So far it appears to be intermediate between 2020 and 2018.  Dropping off day-of was the closest thing to traditional election day voting in 2020 for many states/counties.  Now that traditional precincts are back in full force, they will capture a larger share of the late Republican vote, but day-of drop offs/very late mail is still coming in somewhat more R than early mail.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

Absolutely unforgivable Dems didn't do better there. That's my tribe's county out there! We're talking about people that struggle with kidnappings, dentistry, were't born with great habits, have rampant alcoholism issues, struggle with getting enough resources from the local government, and don't have money to pay for funerals when someone else eventually kicks the bucket. And they're a harder to reach demographic at that too that trends college uneducated in an era where Republicans are trying to make rampant inroads on those minority communities when you have Republicans trying to make sneaky inroads into this demographic. These people are worse off than African Americans in quite a bit of considerable ways and it's unfortunate. And the list goes on and on with the issues Native Americans face. Not to mention that vote by mail doesn't work as well as you think it does there, and there are many more election hurdles towards getting out their vote, as they struggle to have sufficient representation amidst many legal and social barriers. Dems have no excuse for this underperformance.

I have a friend who is doing her dental residency down in Arizona at a facility that serves a largely Native American population.  

She says that her patients are warm and wonderful people, but that it's also pretty sobering to see how poor the dental hygiene is.  She summed it up as "when you're worried about where your next meal is going to come from, you're not worried about your teeth".