Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[😥]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

Praying for MGP in WA-03 if only for the cool fact about the whole Pacific coast going blue.

Praying for MGP there so that absolutely pro-putin lunatic who beat JHB in the primary gets what he deserved

[Mardigroppa]

Didn't Dems have a huge problem with native voters in MT-01

Yeah, I saw someone say that if the Dem nominee there had pulled similar numbers as Ds have in the past she would have beaten Zinke.

Absolutely unforgivable Dems didn't do better there. That's my tribe's county out there! We're talking about people that struggle with kidnappings, dentistry, were't born with great habits, have rampant alcoholism issues, struggle with getting enough resources from the local government, and don't have money to pay for funerals when someone else eventually kicks the bucket. And they're a harder to reach demographic at that too that trends college uneducated in an era where Republicans are trying to make rampant inroads on those minority communities when you have Republicans trying to make sneaky inroads into this demographic. These people are worse off than African Americans in quite a bit of considerable ways and it's unfortunate. And the list goes on and on with the issues Native Americans face. Not to mention that vote by mail doesn't work as well as you think it does there, and there are many more election hurdles towards getting out their vote, as they struggle to have sufficient representation amidst many legal and social barriers. Dems have no excuse for this underperformance.

I have a friend who is doing her dental residency down in Arizona at a dental facility that serves a largely Native American population. 

She says that her patients are warm and wonderful people, but that it's also pretty sobering to see how poor the dental hygiene is.  She summed it up as "when you're worried about where your next meal is going to come from, you're not worried about your teeth". 

I'd also blame some of this on the trend towards preservative foods. Native Americans historically haven't had these issues, but ever since the West introduced a lot of their foods and replaced their natural sources, it seems like dental hygiene has gone down. Which is quite interesting, you could look up the Inuit as an example. They tend to eat a lot of fat with such animals being seals and whales, and what sparse plants there are in the winter, and they don't have the best dental practices but yet many studies show a positive correlation with their diet. And I feel that this is by far and large a major issue, as someone that is Native myself and struggles with this.

So maybe moving away from hyper-processed foods and going back to some of the more traditional diet practices could really hype, and making them more accessible too (although granted Native Americans don't always make the best use of their federal money; they blow it on weed and alcohol, trust me I know).

But I absolutely do agree with you on that, that's the reality they face.

[SCNCmod]

Thoughts on AZ-6 and AZ-1 .. based on votes dropped past 24 hours? 

(and have your thoughts shifted in any way the past 24 hours?)

[It’s so Joever]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

CA-41 WAY more likely to flip than CA-27 lol.

[SCNCmod]

** I think mail in / drop off stats from 2020 are uniquely higher R% than usual due ti pandemic... and 2022 will be more typical of pre-2020 elections which tilt in higher % to Dems.

So far it appears to be intermediate between 2020 and 2018.  Dropping off day-of was the closest thing to traditional election day voting in 2020 for many states/counties.  Now that traditional precincts are back in full force, they will capture a larger share of the late Republican vote, but day-of drop offs/very late mail is still coming in somewhat more R than early mail.

that makes sense

[Ferguson97]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqgeGE5.png

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

From what I've seen Dems have reason to be hopeful in CA-41 and AZ-01. AZ-06 goes Republican though I think.

Oh my god, are we actually going to do this?

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqgeGE5.png

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

From what I've seen Dems have reason to be hopeful in CA-41 and AZ-01. AZ-06 goes Republican though I think.

Oh my god, are we actually going to do this?

No because we are not winning García’s seat lol. Still I do think it’s a very admirable performance, and honestly a 218 GOP House would be a headache so I am okay with them having it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it's 51/49 can we nuke the Filibuster on Voting Rights hopefully, Manchin only said no due to Sinema

[Gass3268]

If it's 51/49 can we nuke the Filibuster on Voting Rights hopefully, Manchin only said no due to Sinema

Makes absolutely no sense to nuke the filibuster if you don't have the House and will probably lose the Senate in 2024.

[DaleCooper]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies). 

What about people who have none of those things?

[Torrain]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies). 

What about people who have none of those things?

They post on Atlas 

[Oryxslayer]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

CA-41 WAY more likely to flip than CA-27 lol.

I personally think they are both up in the air.

CA-27 has at least 100K ballots to come based on precedent, and the LA vote presently suggests there are gonna be dem favoring.

CA-41 similarly has 100K+ ballots, probably 110K+ based on past precedent, but while we think they will break blue, we can't be for certain, and it certainly won't be by as much as in LA.


Honestly, its just a safe assumption that the vote in most CA districts will double before the end of the count, maybe by more in the central valley seats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Btw all this talk about how the gop GOP performance with young voter means for the future forgets to remember how hard the 18-29 cohort from 2008 moved to the right by 2020 as well

Where's the evidence of that? Republicans are still losing 30-44 year olds too.

Look at the exits of 2008 and 2020.

Obama won 18-29 by 33 in 2008 and in 2020 those same voters who were now in their 30s voted for Biden by 5 points

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it's 51/49 can we nuke the Filibuster on Voting Rights hopefully, Manchin only said no due to Sinema

Makes absolutely no sense to nuke the filibuster if you don't have the House and will probably lose the Senate in 2024.

I was talking about  if we had the H we aren't Doomed in 24 we don't know whom is running I'm TX and FL, TX went 6 pts to Trump and 3 pts to Rs in 2020 because it's higher turnout in Prez Edays guess whom don't vote in Midterm and I have disabled in my family Disabled persons it was 120M in 22 in 2020 it was 150 we won't lose FL by 10 in a Prez EDAY if DEMINGS or Graham ran again Scott only won by 1 in 2014(118

Rubio won both his races by 10 and with Biden in ballot we won't lose Miami Dade I expect Ny 17/19, VA 2 and FK 13 to flip back D

[Ferguson97]

NBC calls it for Hobbs

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1591121094764789768

[Spectator]

I wonder why WaPo is being so conservative with WA-03. Perez seems to be getting the numbers she needs in the counties. She’s on track to win Pacific County by a few points and Clark by double digits, and she did a few points better than Biden in Lewis, which is apparently complete.

Reminder the seat is Trump +4.

[politics_king]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqgeGE5.png

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

From what I've seen Dems have reason to be hopeful in CA-41 and AZ-01. AZ-06 goes Republican though I think.

Oh my god, are we actually going to do this?

It'll be terrific if it happens.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Wasn’t there supposed to be a Nevada vote dump around now?

[😥]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqgeGE5.png

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

From what I've seen Dems have reason to be hopeful in CA-41 and AZ-01. AZ-06 goes Republican though I think.

Oh my god, are we actually going to do this?

No because we are not winning García’s seat lol. Still I do think it’s a very admirable performance, and honestly a 218 GOP House would be a headache so I am okay with them having it.

It all depends on ballots remaining uncounted, and we don't know for sure how they will break. By the way, if Smith blows it out in CA-27, Democratic candidates still can absolutely win two of the AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

[Oryxslayer]

I think NYT and AP just called NY-18 for Ryan BTW.

[DaleCooper]

Wasn’t there supposed to be a Nevada vote dump around now?

They overslept.

[GP270watch]

He is for Democrats. Hasn’t he spoken at multiple DNCs?

 Yes but when we think of Christian politcal activism why is the white Evangelical movement the dominant politcal force vs his brand which seeks to work with all people to tackle issues like poverty, justice, inequality and end war and militarism which causes untold human suffering globally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html

Meet Trafalgar polls that were wrong 😊😊😊

[Torrain]

The fact this it's the middle (late here, but GMT is hardly relevant in this discussion) of Friday and the House is still up in the air just feels miraculous. Kevin McCarthy must be having quite a week...

[soundchaser]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html

Meet Trafalgar polls that were wrong 😊😊😊

Rumors are there’s a trail of crappy bow ties leading to Washington Dulles airport.