Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[YL]

Faroe Islands is 1 for each bloc while guessing Greenland is both for Red Bloc (although not counted yet) so Red Bloc needs 87 in Denmark proper to get over majority line or do exit polls include those?  If so would suggest Red Bloc falls just short but very close.

The exit polls don't include the Faroe and Greenland seats, so on the TV 2 one the Red Bloc would just be one short if they can get both Greenland MPs to support them.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats and Denmark Democrats both doing very well at the early tiny islands. Without knowing the islands very well, it's probably mostly populated by older voters. Those two parties tend do much better among older voters. Could really be a pattern for the Social Democrats that they progress among the elderly, but lose among young voters and most of the working age.

[JimJamUK]

Social Democrats and Denmark Democrats both doing very well at the early tiny islands. Without knowing the islands very well, it's probably mostly populated by older voters. Those two parties tend do much better among older voters. Could really be a pattern for the Social Democrats that they progress among the elderly, but lose among young voters and most of the working age.

How expected would this be? They lose a bit to SF and gain a bit from RV which I would assume is demographically reasonably neutral. Are the losses to The Moderates particularly working age?

[MRCVzla]

Another recommended election results sites (for now, with Exit poll data)
DR: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/resultater
TV2: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/folketingsvalg/valgresultater

TV2 includes an updated election map.

EDIT: Also the official results by Danmarks Statistik:
https://www.dst.dk/valg/Valg1968094/valgopg/valgopg.htm
https://www.dst.dk/valg/Valg1968094/valgopg/valgopgOpstTot.htm (as every constituency completed their counts)

[ce]

Thanks I was looking for this!!

[Diouf]

Social Democrats and Denmark Democrats both doing very well at the early tiny islands. Without knowing the islands very well, it's probably mostly populated by older voters. Those two parties tend do much better among older voters. Could really be a pattern for the Social Democrats that they progress among the elderly, but lose among young voters and most of the working age.

How expected would this be? They lose a bit to SF and gain a bit from RV which I would assume is demographically reasonably neutral. Are the losses to The Moderates particularly working age?

We haven't seen that many numbers, but yeah the losses to Moderates are younger men with higher education in particular.

[Diouf]

Denmark Democrats running the Liberals very close in the many tiny islands and rural areas, which have been counted so far. 3.2% counted. Liberals at 16.73% and Denmark Democrats at 15.75%.
Moderates as expected doing steadily well, and also here rurally. They are at 7.78% nationally now.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone have live results as counted not just exit polls as they come in?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Does anyone have live results as counted not just exit polls as they come in?

Results
https://kmdvalg.dk/Main
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/resultater
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/folketingsvalg/valgresultater
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/folketingsvalg_2022/resultater/

[Diouf]

The Liberals' old nestor Claus Hjort Frederiksen, who is retiring af this election, blames the Conservatives for the Blue problems at this election: "I've talked with the Conservatives about this for 20 years, not going to hard in for top tax cuts, and still they go with this plan", and then went on to compare them to Liz Truss.

Ex-DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl gave an interview before from the Denmark Democrats electoral party.

[rosin]

Does anyone have live results as counted not just exit polls as they come in?

When whole electoral districts are counted (and not just single precincts as now), the results can be seen on the clickable map on https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/resultater.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals' old nestor Claus Hjort Frederiksen, who is retiring af this election, blames the Conservatives for the Blue problems at this election: "I've talked with the Conservatives about this for 20 years, not going to hard in for top tax cuts, and still they go with this plan", and then went on to compare them to Liz Truss.

Ex-DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl gave an interview before from the Denmark Democrats electoral party.

Isn't Denmark's top rate around 55-56% which is pretty high even by European standards, while UK is at 45%.  My understanding is Conservatives would cut it to 50-51% which is still on high side in Europe but not highest.  That being said agreed tax cuts for rich as UK showed probably not a big vote winner.

[Diouf]

The first fully counted district is in, Tønder in Southern Jutland. 21.378 votes
An ex-mayor running for Moderates here, which have probably lifted them higher than otherwise.

Social Democrats 26.3% (+1.8%)
Social Liberals 1.3% (-2.3%)
Conservatives 4.6% (+0.2%)
New Right 7.9% (+3.4%)
SPP 5.0% (-0.4%)
Liberal Alliance 5.6% (+3.9%)
Christian Democrats 0.9% (-2.1%)
Moderates 12.6% (new)
DPP 3.0% (-10.1%)
Independent Greens 0.1% (new)
Liberals 15.3% (-17.8%)
Denmark Democrats 14.9% (new)
Red-Green Alliance 1.6% (-1.4%)
Alternative 0.8% (-0.3%)

[Logical]

A part of Brondby has been counted and Independent Greens are at 7% here.
https://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2022/F206.htm

[Diouf]

A part of Brondby has been counted and Independent Greens are at 7% here.
https://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2022/F206.htm

The single best polling place I can see so far is this one
https://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2022/F206183004.htm

13.6%

[Diouf]

Now DR changes from exit poll to prognosis.
Much less urban. Social Democrats + Denmark Democrats strong rural result hitting in very hard here, while all the urban parties are declining. Very strong movement. Hopefully their model is well-calibrated. Now it's only 80 for Red Bloc, 79 for Blue Bloc and 16 for Moderates.

Social Democrats 25.7% (-0.2%) 46 (-2)
Liberals 14.1% (-9.3%) 25 (-18)
Denmark Democrats 10.2% (new) 18 (new)
Moderates 9.0% (new) 16 (new)
Liberal Alliance 7.7% (+5.4%) 14 (+10)
SPP 7.7% (=) 14 (=)
Conservatives 5.2% (-1.4%) 9 (-3)
New Right 4.6% (-2.2%) 8 (+4)
Red-Green Alliance 4.6% (-2.3%) 8(-5)
Social Liberals 3.4% (-5.2%) 6 (-10)
Alternative 3.1% (+0.1%) 5 (=)
DPP 2.9% (-5.8%) 5 (-11)
Independent Greens 0.9% (new) 0 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (-1.2%) 0

[Logical]

Latest DR Projection has it neck and neck between the two blocs.

Red Bloc 80
Blue Bloc 79
Moderates 16

[mileslunn]

TV2 now has Red Bloc at 87 and if include Faroe Islands and Greenland would put them in majority but still way too early.

[Diouf]

With the Social Liberals this low, it's almost certainly goodbye for either leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen (Copenhagen Environs) or deputy leader Martin Lidegaard (Northern Zealand). On six seats, they will only get a seat in one of these two constituencies. If they over-perform in Copenhagen, they could get two seats there, and both of them out, but that it's not that likely.

[Diouf]

It must be two very different models, they are using at DR and TV2!!
And we already have 27.8% counted. They must really have different modelling of how much the urban votes moves in the other direction. Tv2 still has the Denmark Democrats down at 7.5%. Probably the biggest difference.

[Diouf]

TV2 blinked first, and have adjusted to 82 Red 78 Blue and 15 Moderate.
Primarily because they adjusted Denmark Democrats way up to 9.6% and a position as the third largest party, similar to DR.

[mileslunn]

TV2 now shown tightening

82 Red Bloc
78 Blue Bloc
15 Moderate

So looks like moderates will hold balance of power and Red Bloc winning majority seems pretty far fetched at this point.

[crals]

Wow, rather poor for the Red bloc after all.

[kaoras]

TV2 now shown tightening

82 Red Bloc
78 Blue Bloc
15 Moderate

So looks like moderates will hold balance of power and Red Bloc winning majority seems pretty far fetched at this point.

I think they are just showing the current results, not an actual projection

[Diouf]

I think the main hypothesis should be that there were always way more Blue Bloc doubters. With so big movements in the Blue Bloc plus Løkke's surge, there must have been a lot of doubters between the many different Blue Bloc parties + Moderates. Anecdotically, I have also met quite a few, who were very much in doubt but certain to be anti-Frederiksen.