If Clinton was elected President in 2016...
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  If Clinton was elected President in 2016...
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Poll
Question: Do you think the 2020 election would've been a Clinton-Trump rematch?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: If Clinton was elected President in 2016...  (Read 3566 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: September 25, 2022, 12:49:47 PM »

It is looking like 2024 will be a Biden-Trump rematch.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2022, 02:35:27 PM »

Doubtful. Not sure whether Trump could have sustained his cult of personality. Of course the Republican Party would not have gotten any less insane after a 2016 defeat.

Obviously the answer also depends on how close 2016 was.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2022, 03:19:40 PM »

No doubt Romney, McCain, and Lindsey Graham would say “told you so”.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2022, 06:11:27 PM »

At the very least I do think Trump would participate in the 2020 GOP primary. I don't know whether he would be too damaged as a loser at that point to win again or not. It's hard to say because he would definitely have still engaged in Big Lie talk after being defeated. Hell, he proliferated the conspiracy theory that he actually won the popular vote, so even after winning he was still a sore loser somehow.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2022, 07:48:20 PM »

Doubtful, because I doubt he wins the primary, and he likely is deplatformed.
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BigVic
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2022, 05:13:09 AM »

Would’ve lost to another Republican
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2022, 10:55:43 AM »

Unlikely, especially if he loses by more than the 278 freiwall map.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2022, 07:59:17 PM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.
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dw93
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2022, 02:36:35 PM »

I doubt it. Trump would've been painted as a RINO by the base and would've been seen as too extreme by everyone else. 2020 after a Clinton win in 2016 would've either been the GOP's 1992 or they would've nominated someone who, while right wing, was more genteel and less outwardly offensive than Trump. At most Trump would've likely tried, and failed, to play kingmaker but that's it.
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vileplume
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2022, 03:42:05 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 03:49:31 PM by vileplume »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

She would have won Virginia easily, albeit probably not by as much as Biden won it by. Nevada on the other hand would very likely have gone to Trump, there would have been a huge backlash in the tourism/service industry against President Clinton over Covid. Maine may have voted GOP for the first time since '88 too.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2022, 05:09:23 PM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

Don't get me wrong, she still would have been an unpopular lame duck regardless though.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2022, 05:56:12 PM »

She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd.
She could have built bridges with Bernie or Busters by doing the things Biden has been doing and vetoing “neoliberal” legislation.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2022, 11:57:45 AM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

Don't get me wrong, she still would have been an unpopular lame duck regardless though.

The bolded part is correct. Trump is the one who disbanded the pandemic preparedness team. Had Hillary been President, it would never have left China.
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super6646
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2022, 08:33:12 PM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

Don't get me wrong, she still would have been an unpopular lame duck regardless though.

The bolded part is correct. Trump is the one who disbanded the pandemic preparedness team. Had Hillary been President, it would never have left China.

Ya no. Are we forgetting there were already cases in Italy and Iran weeks before this hit the US.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2022, 05:38:44 AM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

Don't get me wrong, she still would have been an unpopular lame duck regardless though.

The bolded part is correct. Trump is the one who disbanded the pandemic preparedness team. Had Hillary been President, it would never have left China.

Ya no. Are we forgetting there were already cases in Italy and Iran weeks before this hit the US.

Let me be bitter, okay?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2022, 09:59:47 AM »

Bitterness that is not factually based is rarely healthy.
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Obama Baraka
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2022, 02:25:17 PM »

I used to think not, but it's worth considering that Trump's movement has been one of the heartiest and most enduring in the party in decades, and that was before he even won the election. Events during her presidency would probably strengthen his appeal: COVID (no, the butterfly effect isn't some magic wand that can wave away the evolution of a virus halfway across the world because someone else is in the White House), deteriorating relations with China, societal upheaval (technological and outsourcing-based un(der)employment, climate change, sexual harassment, migration surges, police brutality, and the reinforcement of echo chambers by social media can't be handwaved away either), and the economic disruption inherent to those things. I also used to think he wouldn't want to run again after losing, but all signs point to a Trump run in our 2024.

However, someone else might have a shot at taking Trump's place by 2020, probably either DeSantis or Josh Hawley.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2022, 05:41:41 PM »

I used to think not, but it's worth considering that Trump's movement has been one of the heartiest and most enduring in the party in decades, and that was before he even won the election. Events during her presidency would probably strengthen his appeal: COVID (no, the butterfly effect isn't some magic wand that can wave away the evolution of a virus halfway across the world because someone else is in the White House), deteriorating relations with China, societal upheaval (technological and outsourcing-based un(der)employment, climate change, sexual harassment, migration surges, police brutality, and the reinforcement of echo chambers by social media can't be handwaved away either), and the economic disruption inherent to those things. I also used to think he wouldn't want to run again after losing, but all signs point to a Trump run in our 2024.

However, someone else might have a shot at taking Trump's place by 2020, probably either DeSantis or Josh Hawley.
Neither DeSantis nor Josh Hawley are going to run in 2020, both being first elected in 2018.

Even Obama needed four years as a senator before running for President

I expect the Republican nominee, if not Trump, would be Cruz. He is runner up and would probably copy a lot of Trump's populist rethoic
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TwinGeeks99
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2022, 09:06:46 PM »

Absolutely not, because even before Trump won the Republican Party was ready to leave him for dead if he lost.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2022, 07:17:01 AM »

I don’t think so. Trump was nowhere near as popular in 2016 as he was in 2020. He won over a lot of those conservative skeptics over the course of his presidency.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2022, 11:37:54 PM »

I used to think not, but it's worth considering that Trump's movement has been one of the heartiest and most enduring in the party in decades, and that was before he even won the election. Events during her presidency would probably strengthen his appeal: COVID (no, the butterfly effect isn't some magic wand that can wave away the evolution of a virus halfway across the world because someone else is in the White House), deteriorating relations with China, societal upheaval (technological and outsourcing-based un(der)employment, climate change, sexual harassment, migration surges, police brutality, and the reinforcement of echo chambers by social media can't be handwaved away either), and the economic disruption inherent to those things. I also used to think he wouldn't want to run again after losing, but all signs point to a Trump run in our 2024.

However, someone else might have a shot at taking Trump's place by 2020, probably either DeSantis or Josh Hawley.
Neither DeSantis nor Josh Hawley are going to run in 2020, both being first elected in 2018.

Even Obama needed four years as a senator before running for President

I expect the Republican nominee, if not Trump, would be Cruz. He is runner up and would probably copy a lot of Trump's populist rethoic
.   Don't underestimate Rick Scott here.
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2022, 11:32:41 PM »

Yes. If not for the Comey letter Clinton would probably have been able to barely hang onto the Midwest and won a 1960-esque nailbiter. She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd. Backlash against Covid restrictions would have been a thousand times worse since the GOP would have a common enemy to unite against.

The better than expected showing by Trump causes the party bosses to warm up to him in 2020 and he would have an interest in running again to get his ego stroked by his big crowds of adoring admirers. There would be some resistance to his renomination but not nearly enough to stop him from getting the nod. Trump would retain his outsider appeal while Hillary would be fatally damaged by four years of nonstop GOP investigations.

Her approval ratings would have gone up temporarily due to Covid but again with a common enemy the GOP would have given her the same treatment Gretchen Whitmer got IRL. Eventually as the pandemic raged on with no end in sight Trump would have campaigned on ending the lockdowns and independents would rationalize voting for him "because he'll handle Covid the same way he runs his businesses!"

Hillary would then lose the 2016 map give or take New Hampshire or Virginia and we'd have a Trump presidency with him four years further into dementia land.

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

Don't get me wrong, she still would have been an unpopular lame duck regardless though.

The bolded part is correct. Trump is the one who disbanded the pandemic preparedness team. Had Hillary been President, it would never have left China.

LOL.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #22 on: December 23, 2022, 06:43:44 PM »

She would have had approval ratings on the 20s and 30s throughout her term as she would have still been despised by the Bernie crowd.
She could have built bridges with Bernie or Busters by doing the things Biden has been doing and vetoing “neoliberal” legislation.
Biden had a Democratic house and senate.

At most, Democrats win the senate. Hillary appoints some judges and fills the hole in the Supreme Court. Maybe RBG and Breyer retire.

Come 2018, Republicans win anywhere from 53-57 seats. And thats assuming it was 50-50 going in.
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Quetta
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« Reply #23 on: December 25, 2022, 02:48:06 AM »

Hot take: due to the butterfly effect, there wouldn't have been a pandemic under her.

One should know that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in America can set off a tornado in China that will kill all bats.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2023, 04:12:28 PM »

The Republican establishment likely would've ensured that Trump didn't receive the nomination again. Trump would've had a harder time keeping his base enthusiasm alive for four years if he wasn't actually president.
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