If Clinton was elected President in 2016...

[Mr. Smith]

Doubtful, because I doubt he wins the primary, and he likely is deplatformed.

[Mr. Smith]

I used to think not, but it's worth considering that Trump's movement has been one of the heartiest and most enduring in the party in decades, and that was before he even won the election. Events during her presidency would probably strengthen his appeal: COVID (no, the butterfly effect isn't some magic wand that can wave away the evolution of a virus halfway across the world because someone else is in the White House), deteriorating relations with China, societal upheaval (technological and outsourcing-based un(der)employment, climate change, sexual harassment, migration surges, police brutality, and the reinforcement of echo chambers by social media can't be handwaved away either), and the economic disruption inherent to those things. I also used to think he wouldn't want to run again after losing, but all signs point to a Trump run in our 2024.

However, someone else might have a shot at taking Trump's place by 2020, probably either DeSantis or Josh Hawley.

Neither DeSantis nor Josh Hawley are going to run in 2020, both being first elected in 2018.

Even Obama needed four years as a senator before running for President

I expect the Republican nominee, if not Trump, would be Cruz. He is runner up and would probably copy a lot of Trump's populist rethoic

.   Don't underestimate Rick Scott here.

[Mr. Smith]

I voted for Clinton in 2016. If she had won in 2016 I don't think she would have run in 2020. I think she had plans to make a one term pledge had she won. Of course we will never know now.

Nobody is voluntarily just serving a single term. Especially no one that wanted to be president for decades.

Bush Sr literally had to be coaxed into re-election.