Was Florida going Republican in any matchup in 2020?
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  Was Florida going Republican in any matchup in 2020?
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Author Topic: Was Florida going Republican in any matchup in 2020?  (Read 1489 times)
President Johnson
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« on: December 12, 2022, 04:10:37 PM »

Was Florida always going Republican in 2020, regardless of the matchup? I'm not even specifically thinking about Trump or even a Republican incumbent, just more general whether Florida trended too much right that no Democrat - even a relatively popular incumbent - couldn't have won it? Of course the margin was "only" four points then, but looking at 2022, I wonder whether 2020 was ever possible?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2022, 06:35:43 PM »

Yes.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2022, 09:18:25 PM »

Yes.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2022, 10:58:59 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2022, 11:04:38 PM by TodayJunior »

It was an uphill battle no doubt. Not too dimmsilar to Nevada always being just out of reach for the gop. Covid accelerated it obviously with intra-country migration, but that didnít really show up though until this year. As we all know now, 2018 was the turning point, but Florida was still winnable in 2020, as it was in 2018, but the former was the last time it was truly a swing state.

My final margin prediction for 2022 was DeSantis +9, hardly swing state territory, but he doubled that and then some. DeSantis losing Orange County by only 7, broward by 15, pummeling Charlie in Miami dade by 11, and flipping palm beach by 3 was shocking.

To my Republican friends, you want to win nationally? Study Florida. But tread lightly, you canít go full culture war without an economic message to back it up. DeSantisís culture war fights alone would not have given him the 19-point margin. Florida isnít by and large ideologically a conservative bastion like Texas or even Georgia used to be (see our state constitution right to privacy laws). Even with throwback ham sandwich Charlie, he shouldíve only gotten half of the margin he did since I, and many thought, he was way too polarizing to win Florida by double digits. woopsie!  
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2022, 12:46:16 AM »

In 2020, it appears that major factors contributing to the relatively large margin in FL (compared to margins throughout the 2010s) included Democratsí decision to reduce in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic and their failure to adequately respond to misinformation about their party and their candidates (Obama did a pretty good job on the latter issue during his campaigns). Geographically speaking, aside from South Florida, another place where Democrats tanked and failed to make up ground was the suburban/exurban counties in the Orlando & Tampa areas. I think that if Democrats had adequately addressed the aforementioned issues, the end result in FL would probably have been not further right than R+2 or so. The keys to an actual Democratic victory in the state would have involved reducing Republican margins in the suburban/exurban counties in central FL to 2008-2014 levels, along with getting South FL Democratic margins back up to levels similar to Obama 2012, Crist 2014, and/or Gillum/Nelson 2018 (assuming that Clinton 2016 was an outlier).
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2022, 03:02:09 PM »

I think so, especially with the migration a lot of people made to Florida during the pandemic to escape restrictions in other states. Florida was the poster child of a place where you can go where you won't need to wear a mask and where businesses wouldn't need to abide by capacity limits.
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Crackerjack McJohnson
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2022, 09:31:57 AM »

Yes.  It established itself as the land free from COVID restrictions.  Especially when it came to strip clubs and bars. 
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2022, 04:33:09 PM »

I think so, especially with the migration a lot of people made to Florida during the pandemic to escape restrictions in other states. Florida was the poster child of a place where you can go where you won't need to wear a mask and where businesses wouldn't need to abide by capacity limits.

Somehow I feel like this a contradiction, especially when people say Trump either lost the 2020 election as whole because of Covid or was further jeopardized by his handling of the pandemic, while it helped him to win Florida. Or were Covid measures just unpopular in Florida for all the time? Usually you would have expected the opposite because the elderly were much more threatened by the virus at a time there was no vaccine available.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2022, 07:56:49 PM »

Yes,
FLORIDA was going RED no matter the Democratic Nominee and the simple Reason is this: All of them were terrible fits for the diverse Hispanic Electorate in the Sunshine State.

Trump almost doubled his support among Florida Hispanics from Romney 2012 in 2020.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2023, 11:21:16 PM »

Biden could have won the state if there was canvassing and a better approach to Hispanic outreach  plus voter registration drives/rallies. Right before COVID started, Democrats were doing fairly well with voter registration.  But Trump worked his ass off to win Florida, visiting it over and over and over and over again for four years. His response to the crisis in Venezuela and the Squad/Bernie becoming the image of the Democratic Party really hurt us a lot though because it poisoned our brand in Miami-Dade. I think with canvassing, we could have won Miami by 130,000-150,000 votes but Biden would have needed to visit a lot in person and needed to outspend Trump earlier on Spanish media to get higher than Gillum, Nelson, and Fried got.
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