Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

Not assuming, just saying it's a possiiblity. Florida historically had been very good for GOP with VBM up until Trump's anti-VBM nonsense in 2020. So it wouldn't be surprising imo if the GOP went back to more VBM without him being so prominent

It's very low possibility based on what exactly? Nothing if you ask me. The writing is well on the wall for Dems in Florida. Only 30k vote advantage and at this pace by the end of the week Reps will outnumber ballots cast in VBM + IP. I don't see a reason why would Reps go to the VBM more this year, it's much more probable that they will vote instead on election day.

Because Reps did worse in the early vote first day this year than they did in 2020. So given the fact that VBM is more GOP this year, it's certainly a possibility. Or you could be right - GOP could be ignoring it more and just voting on election day. Who knows, but it's still a possibility either way.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

Not assuming, just saying it's a possiiblity. Florida historically had been very good for GOP with VBM up until Trump's anti-VBM nonsense in 2020. So it wouldn't be surprising imo if the GOP went back to more VBM without him being so prominent

It's very low possibility based on what exactly? Nothing if you ask me. The writing is well on the wall for Dems in Florida. Only 30k vote advantage and at this pace by the end of the week Reps will outnumber ballots cast in VBM + IP. I don't see a reason why would Reps go to the VBM more this year, it's much more probable that they will vote instead on election day.

I tend to agree with this take. Comparing the VBM percentage of each party's final vote total, the 2020 general and 2022 primaries look extremely similar... like within a couple of percent. I would have to find my notes but I think when I did the math, I came to 35% VBM for Rs in 2020 vs 37% in the 2022 primaries and 55% for Ds in 2020 vs 54% in the primary. I have my doubts voting patterns change that much from the primaries to now but I guess time will tell.

[It’s so Joever]

Ralston updated.

[soundchaser]

Ralston updated.

In short: Washoe looks like what Dems need it to, Clark doesn't yet. But there are lingering questions about mail-in ballots arriving in Clark that make it hard to draw conclusions.

[It’s so Joever]

Ralston updated.

In short: Washoe looks like what Dems need it to, Clark doesn't yet. But there are lingering questions about mail-in ballots arriving in Clark that make it hard to draw conclusions.

It really depends, is this just extremely low turnout across the board? While possible, it is not something that CCM would feel very happy having to rely upon. Especially in a state like NV where low propensity voters probably still are more likely to skew D.

[soundchaser]

Ralston updated.

In short: Washoe looks like what Dems need it to, Clark doesn't yet. But there are lingering questions about mail-in ballots arriving in Clark that make it hard to draw conclusions.

It really depends, is this just extremely low turnout across the board? While possible, it is not something that CCM would feel very happy having to rely upon.

The turnout patterns in Washoe make me skeptical it's the former, but it will be interesting to see these develop over the week.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

[Brittain33]

I don’t believe in TargetSmart, but people don’t believe in God and still pray, so I’ll eat up all of their happy pills

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how NV and AZ necessarily look good for GOP. Jury is still largely out, but Dems still have a lead in NV with not that much mail in, and AZ's return rates are not very good for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1584998116620906496

[wbrocks67]

Do have final early vote totals from 2018?

For 2020, it was:

Early vote (mail ins):
2.47M (37.4% D, 37.0% R)
Return rate: 76.6% for Ds, 73.8% for Rs

So essentially, if Ds are in the lead by Election Day still, they could feel comfortable most likely. Election Day vote for GOP is the question though. Guess it depends on what the final # is (in terms of total ballots received)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls showing CCM ahead now is just verifying the Early vote LAXALT was leading around this time in 2018 and Sisolak won on the Early vote, same in WI EVERS and Barnes were 1 pt down to Scott  Walker and Kleefisch but Baldwin was in the same position as Evers is now and Early vote had Evers and Barnes best Walker and Kleefisch the same is gonna happen in Johnson v Barnes, Barnes win, and hopefully Ryan gets in and McMullin

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure how NV and AZ necessarily look good for GOP. Jury is still largely out, but Dems still have a lead in NV with not that much mail in, and AZ's return rates are not very good for the GOP.

AZ because the graphic above is showing Dems leading about 41-36 when it was like 46-33 at this point in 2020. When you factor in the modeled preference of the independents, target smart actually has GOP leading currently. They mention Arizona being a rough spot in their tweet if you don’t believe me. NV is hard to gauge with such little data but the fact that Washoe is outvoting Clark currently helps the GOP. Both are obviously subject to change.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how NV and AZ necessarily look good for GOP. Jury is still largely out, but Dems still have a lead in NV with not that much mail in, and AZ's return rates are not very good for the GOP.

AZ because the graphic above is showing Dems leading about 41-36 when it was like 46-33 at this point in 2020. When you factor in the modeled preference of the independents, target smart actually has GOP leading currently. They mention Arizona being a rough spot in their tweet if you don’t believe me. NV is hard to gauge with such little data but the fact that Washoe is outvoting Clark currently helps the GOP. Both are obviously subject to change.

I see that, but TargetSmart you're also comparing 309k ballots to 860k ballots, so a more apt comparison would probably be when we're closer to that figure.

At the same time, 2018 shows 457K ballots with an R+18 lead at this time... and Sinema won that year obv.

[soundchaser]

At the same time, 2018 shows 457K ballots with an R+18 lead at this time... and Sinema won that year obv.

Which is why we shouldn't be reading too much into any of this yet.

[wbrocks67]

At the same time, 2018 shows 457K ballots with an R+18 lead at this time... and Sinema won that year obv.

Which is why we shouldn't be reading too much into any of this yet.

Honestly why I don't put much stock into TargetSmart stuff, whether it's good or bad for whoever. I feel like some of the data is quite all over the place.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure how NV and AZ necessarily look good for GOP. Jury is still largely out, but Dems still have a lead in NV with not that much mail in, and AZ's return rates are not very good for the GOP.

AZ because the graphic above is showing Dems leading about 41-36 when it was like 46-33 at this point in 2020. When you factor in the modeled preference of the independents, target smart actually has GOP leading currently. They mention Arizona being a rough spot in their tweet if you don’t believe me. NV is hard to gauge with such little data but the fact that Washoe is outvoting Clark currently helps the GOP. Both are obviously subject to change.

I see that, but TargetSmart you're also comparing 309k ballots to 860k ballots, so a more apt comparison would probably be when we're closer to that figure.

At the same time, 2018 shows 457K ballots with an R+18 lead at this time... and Sinema won that year obv.

I would advise against comparing anything to 2018. That was a time when early voting skewed old even more than it does now, and before Trump made some republicans paranoid about early voting. Some might think that 2020 is a valuable comparison and some might not. I personally do because I expect the partisan patterns to stay relatively similar,  based on 2020, primaries, and polling data (though I do understand the perspective of being skeptical of it).

Edit: I meant based on 2021

[2016]

Let's get this straight here about FLORIDA:
Republicans have about 700K to 1M more high propensity Supervoters and this comes from a Nonpartisan Data Guru in the State.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Let's get this straight here about FLORIDA:
Republicans have about 700K to 1M more high propensity Supervoters and this comes from a Nonpartisan Data Guru in the State.

I don't think anybody's arguing with you, Sixteen

[xavier110]

Do have final early vote totals from 2018?

For 2020, it was:

Early vote (mail ins):
2.47M (37.4% D, 37.0% R)
Return rate: 76.6% for Ds, 73.8% for Rs

So essentially, if Ds are in the lead by Election Day still, they could feel comfortable most likely. Election Day vote for GOP is the question though. Guess it depends on what the final # is (in terms of total ballots received)

I can try to find them.

The AZ #s are not bad for Ds by any means. I know they’re either meeting or exceeding their 2018 #s at this same point in time… I don’t know in what world that equals bad.

I wouldn’t over index on these #s, though.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Do have final early vote totals from 2018?

For 2020, it was:

Early vote (mail ins):
2.47M (37.4% D, 37.0% R)
Return rate: 76.6% for Ds, 73.8% for Rs

So essentially, if Ds are in the lead by Election Day still, they could feel comfortable most likely. Election Day vote for GOP is the question though. Guess it depends on what the final # is (in terms of total ballots received)

Early + Mail in Arizona on Election Day, 2018:

Democrat: 538,855 (34.5%)
Republican: 633,540 (40.6%)
Other: 124,589 (8.0%)
Unaffiliated: 263,997 (16.9%)

I would caution against using these for any sort of comparison purposes, as partisan attitudes towards EV was obviously radically different back then.

[MT Treasurer]

I’d keep three things in mind here:

1) As Unelectable Bystander already noted, the partisan divide in terms of voting intensity/preferred voting method (early vs. late, mail vs. election day) has never been as stark and clear-cut as it is today, which makes any comparison with pre-2020 elections very problematic. I’d argue that any place where Democrats overwhelmed Republicans in early voting in 2020 but where they are lagging (far) behind their 2020 strength this year is a very ominous sign for them given what we know are the respective voting preferences of the two party bases.

2) I’m very interested to see if the disparity between D performance in Washoe and Clark continues (you could argue that it is in line with this year's special election results). If Democrats do relatively well in the former while seriously underperforming in the latter, it might suggest that their liberal white base is far more reliable/solid than their non-white/non-Anglo base, and that’s obviously game over in NV given how much more important Clark is.

3) Given that independents are almost certainly more R-leaning than in 2020, it’s not enough for Democrats to just hit their 2020 %-s. (This is why even the Washoe numbers don’t mean that Democrats are actually in a 50/50 position to win the county.)

Also, obligatory reminder that Democrats have absolutely no room for error in this state.

[2016]

FLORIDA
Combined VBM + Early In Person through Tues Oct. 25

DEMOCRATS  683,947

REPUBLICANS  664,055

INDEPENDENTS  318,974

Democrats lead by 19,892

Democrats were aided by a huge VBM Day (147K) and added 15K

Republicans were helped by a 117K In-Person Day were they netted 25K

Tomorrow Hernando, Volusia, Pasco, St. Johns, Nassau and Martin kick off Early In-Person Vote.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FLORIDA
Combined VBM + Early In Person through Tues Oct. 25

DEMOCRATS  683,947

REPUBLICANS  664,055

INDEPENDENTS  318,974

Democrats lead by 19,892

Democrats were aided by a huge VBM Day (147K) and added 15K

Republicans were helped by a 117K In-Person Day were they netted 25K

Tomorrow Hernando, Volusia, Pasco, St. Johns, Nassau and Martin kick off Early In-Person Vote.

2016 Try Not To Mention Florida Challenge (IMPOSSIBLE)