Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Another 155K counted in GA.

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 729K (55.9% white - 32.7% black) —> +23.2 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[UncleSam]

Another 155K counted in GA.

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 729K (55.9% white - 32.7% black) —> +23.2 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

So it seems like this one is right on track to be extremely close, being slightly more unfavorable to Ds than the runoff in 2021 but slightly more favorable than 2020.

We will see where things close at, but one would think Rs need to get to at least white +26-27 or so to feel ok about their chances. Even then, if they need to win outright they may need more like white +29, which seems impossible.

In other words, very good news for Dems so far. Extrapolating 2020 trends would imply we will end up at around white +26.7 or so, which should be good enough for Warnock to force a runoff, which is likely all he needs.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

One must also remember that Georgia was like the only state of note (that is, remotely close) where Dems overperformed. Abrams may be an egotistical Twitter candidate but she knows how to run a GOTV operation.

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting chart of early voting history in Georgia. 2020's absentee ballot numbers really look like an aberration. Interesting that while in person and total early voting is going gangbusters absentee voting is at it's lowest level since 2014.

Important context:

Previously, counties would start mailing out ballots in late-August/early-September, but GAGOP restricted this post-2020 to no earlier than October 10 this year

Most people have only had their mail ballots in their hands for a week or so at this point. It's absolutely going to result in nerfing mail vote potential (as was the intent - especially in future years where the first Tuesday after the first Monday isn't so late in November, and basically shaves another week off, leaving only 3 weeks between when the ballots are mailed out by the counties and Election Day). Barring a weird calendar year like this, mail ballots in the future won't go out until the first day of in-person early voting begins.

However, there are currently an additional 172k mail ballots/applications outstanding in GA in addition to the ~55k returned. I imagine the final ABM number will be somewhere in the 170-190k range (in 2018, there were 223k returned ABM ballots; that was the first midterm ABM became somewhat popular due to the Abrams campaign pushing it heavily).

Just for reference (ABM #s and winner by margin):

2020:   1315294  Biden +30
2018:   223576   Abrams +24
2016:   207716   Trump +2
2014:   107023   Perdue +13
2012:   212695   Romney +17

It's funny, because prior to 2016, ABM was the GOP's best category of voting in terms of percentage of support (better than provisionals, better than early in-person, & even better than Election Day: largely because it was a practice only used by senior citizens at the time).


I'm also publishing daily EV updates/breakdowns in the Georgia megathread if anybody is interested. I usually update late in the evenings or in the early morning of the following day (data tends to be released for the day by SoS between 9-11 PM ET).

[Spectator]

I think UOCAVA voters are different since I got mine back in late September

[wbrocks67]

So far, each days black share in GA was higher than 2018 and 2020. Don't have 2021 though, unfortunately

(this is each specific days total, not the cumulative running total)

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1583661196120829953

[Hollywood]

So far, each days black share in GA was higher than 2018 and 2020. Don't have 2021 though, unfortunately

(this is each specific days total, not the cumulative running total)

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1583661196120829953

As pollsters have now come to realize over the past week, the 2018 demographics was clearly an incorrect model for gauging voter turnout in 2022.  Pollsters are beginning to shift to a modified 2020 turnout model that takes into account the real issues and motivations that will drive 'likely voters' to the polls.  It's extremely easy to draw parallels to VA, because the share of VBM and Early Vote ballots was much lower than pollsters estimated, and therefore, Democrats were unable to run up the numbers to edge out the combination of right-leaning Indies and 2020 Trump voters that came out on election day.  It's also important to note that many voters were voting to vote against the Democrat Party due to their disapproval of Joe Biden.  The Democrats wrongly attempted to shift the focus of the election on Trump in 2021, because it worked when Trump was on the ballot in 2017, 2018, and 2020.  Without abortion talking points, I think Democrats would lose solid blue states, because it still isn't more prevalent right now than Inflation, Crime, and Immigration.  All these issues have literally turned into local issues that Democrats are trying to run on.   

Democrats are simply not going to have to votes in Florida and North Carolina.  Definitely not going to win Ohio, and there chances are slipping in Wisconsin. The Generic Ballot has shifted to a +4% Republican Lead (Data for Progress, Rasmussen, NYTimes/Siena, Monmouth, Emerson).  It's going to come down to GA, AZ, NV, and PA. 

[2016]

So far, each days black share in GA was higher than 2018 and 2020. Don't have 2021 though, unfortunately

(this is each specific days total, not the cumulative running total)

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1583661196120829953

As pollsters have now come to realize over the past week, the 2018 demographics was clearly an incorrect model for gauging voter turnout in 2022.  Pollsters are beginning to shift to a modified 2020 turnout model that takes into account the real issues and motivations that will drive 'likely voters' to the polls.  It's extremely easy to draw parallels to VA, because the share of VBM and Early Vote ballots was much lower than pollsters estimated, and therefore, Democrats were unable to run up the numbers to edge out the combination of right-leaning Indies and 2020 Trump voters that came out on election day.  It's also important to note that many voters were voting to vote against the Democrat Party due to their disapproval of Joe Biden.  The Democrats wrongly attempted to shift the focus of the election on Trump in 2021, because it worked when Trump was on the ballot in 2017, 2018, and 2020.  Without abortion talking points, I think Democrats would lose solid blue states, because it still isn't more prevalent right now than Inflation, Crime, and Immigration.  All these issues have literally turned into local issues that Democrats are trying to run on.   

Democrats are simply not going to have to votes in Florida and North Carolina.  Definitely not going to win Ohio, and there chances are slipping in Wisconsin. The Generic Ballot has shifted to a +4% Republican Lead (Data for Progress, Rasmussen, NYTimes/Siena, Monmouth, Emerson).  It's going to come down to GA, AZ, NV, and PA. 

Democrats in Georgia in particular also underestimating the Ground Game of Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp. If you closely follow the Twitter Account of Erick Erickson, who is a Georgia Native, he thinks that Kemp has beefed up his GOTV Game compared to 2018 and if that's proven to be correct I think Kemp will carry Walker over the Finish Line if the current polling between Kemp/Abrams holds.

[Minnesota Mike]

First day of in person early voting in Nevada. Traditionally Nevada is the state where the early vote best mirrored the total vote but I'm not sure that is still the case. Absentee ballots used to be a small part of the total vote but that changed in 2020 when Nevada started mailing ballots to all registered voters. In 2020 like elsewhere Democrats dominated absentee voting while Republicans did better with in person voters. Some things to remember when looking at early vote numbers in Nevada.

- Absentee's postmarked by election day count if they arrive by 3(?) days after the election. That means absentees will still be coming in a week after in person early voting ends.

- Clark county mailed their absentees about a week or so later than the rest of the state. No absentee numbers from Clark are expected until at least Monday.

- Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap by about 2% since 2020 to a little under 3%. The big story though is both Republicans and Democrats have lost ground to "other" voters (non partisan/3rd party). Others have gone from about 31% to about 37% since 2020. Adds another layer of uncertainty.

[It’s so Joever]

First day of in person early voting in Nevada. Traditionally Nevada is the state where the early vote best mirrored the total vote but I'm not sure that is still the case. Absentee ballots used to be a small part of the total vote but that changed in 2020 when Nevada started mailing ballots to all registered voters. In 2020 like elsewhere Democrats dominated absentee voting while Republicans did better with in person voters. Some things to remember when looking at early vote numbers in Nevada.

- Absentee's postmarked by election day count if they arrive by 3(?) days after the election. That means absentees will still be coming in a week after in person early voting ends.

- Clark county mailed their absentees about a week or so later than the rest of the state. No absentee numbers from Clark are expected until at least Monday.

- Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap by about 2% since 2020 to a little under 3%. The big story though is both Republicans and Democrats have lost ground to "other" voters (non partisan/3rd party). Others have gone from about 31% to about 37% since 2020. Adds another layer of uncertainty.

Hopefully Ralston will give us a good analysis soon.

[Minnesota Mike]

Hopefully Ralston will give us a good analysis soon.

Ralston is OK but his analysis is not that out of the ordinary. He has better access to some numbers but once the numbers come out any political nerd can come to the same conclusions he does.

[Brittain33]

Erickson is also saying the early vote bodes well for Walker, and granted the early vote is not predictive and anything can happen on Election Day, but the electorate is more African-American at this point than in 2018 or 2020 so there’s no way Erickson’s claim makes sense other than for cheerleading.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's another set of polling averages, nicely displayed in one place:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583878734590799872

[GeorgiaModerate]

Erickson is also saying the early vote bodes well for Walker, and granted the early vote is not predictive and anything can happen on Election Day, but the electorate is more African-American at this point than in 2018 or 2020 so there’s no way Erickson’s claim makes sense other than for cheerleading.

From a very solid Georgia political reporter:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1583905891254169600

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock   +13.76
2020 Biden       +5.73
2018 Abrams    +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8

[SnowLabrador]

So Georgia's probably going to a runoff, based on the early vote data alone. Granted, that's what most people here seemed to think anyway.

[Holmes]

"The early voting bodes well for Clinton."

[wbrocks67]

Georgia:

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock   +13.76
2020 Biden       +5.73
2018 Abrams    +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8

If it's more black than both 2018 and 2020, how does that mean a lower Democratic advantage?

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock   +13.76
2020 Biden       +5.73
2018 Abrams    +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8

If it's more black than both 2018 and 2020, how does that mean a lower Democratic advantage?

With regard to 2020: slightly more male & far fewer young voters/far more older ones (the latter of which would be expected in any midterm EV). The estimate is a simple amalgamation of all 4 groups' pulls/tugs on the electorate relative to 2018 & 2020. Keep in mind those comparisons are cumulative EV as of Day 5 of in-person in those years (I just included the final/total EV margins for 2018 & 2020 as a separate footnote).

In reality, I suspect that the 65+ crowd thus far is actually a bit blacker than 2018 - possibly so for 2020 as well - as it's hard to see how the electorate is both blacker and older without this being true.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats have a turnout lead in Arizona right now, with Republicans lacking a lot compared to 2018. Who knows if this is a turnout issue or if more Republicans are just going to vote election day compared to 2018 because of Trump's mail nonsense.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1583905285231345664

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1583882601580072960

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see the black % share both today and tomorrow for Souls to the Polls in GA.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats have a turnout lead in Arizona right now, with Republicans lacking a lot compared to 2018. Who knows if this is a turnout issue or if more Republicans are just going to vote election day compared to 2018 because of Trump's mail nonsense.

Yeah I think that early/mail-in comparisons aren't necessarily good or bad for either party, and comparing them to previous cycles makes little sense because 2018 was pre-pandemic and before VBM was politicized. And 2020 was a presidential as opposed to a midterm, and VBM was much more widespread. So VBM will be higher than 2018 but much lower than 2020. 

[Unelectable Bystander]

Georgia:

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock +13.76
2020 Biden    +5.73
2018 Abrams +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8

Are those early vote totals official? A recent Quinnipiac poll had Warnock winning like 66% of the mail-in vote, 59% of the early in person, and Walker winning 60% of the E-day vote. That would mean the total early vote is about Warnock +26 or double his 2021 margin. That doesn’t align with those historical results at all. If those results are official and the poll is correct, that might mean that the voting method divide is only growing but R’s are over-performing by staying near 2018 levels of early vote. Alternatively, the poll might be awful.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583955336305643522

I assume by 2 years ago he meant 2018.

Bad weather today in Clark County, heavy winds, but I think we are seeing a real shift to absentees from in person voting in Nevada. We won't know anything useful until we start seeing absentee numbers.