Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

California update

Democrats - 426,967 (49%)
Republicans - 243,513 (28%)
Ind/other - 202,432 (23%)

= 872,912

[wbrocks67]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

[bilaps]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

[Brittain33]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

No one believes Warnock will get 100% of the black vote against either a white or a black candidate.

Polling isn’t showing any significant black vote for Walker. You could also argue that since white voters don’t have a white Republican to vote for, they are free to vote for Warnock in higher numbers. In that case any effect would be a wash.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

[Ferguson97]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

Look it’s not complicated. The polls are right when they show something that suits my priors, and the polls are wrong when they show something that doesn’t confirm my priors. What’s not to understand?

[bilaps]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

Look it’s not complicated. The polls are right when they show something that suits my priors, and the polls are wrong when they show something that doesn’t confirm my priors. What’s not to understand?

Well, the person that liked your post is literally that person

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 6,099,264 (+1,103k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 40,321,418 (+1,012k)

[Ferguson97]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

I mean, basically every poll shows Walker getting on average the same % of the black vote as most Rs usually do in GA.

And polls are always right.

y'all need to get your narrative straight. first you believe all the polls, now you don't? which is it?

Look it’s not complicated. The polls are right when they show something that suits my priors, and the polls are wrong when they show something that doesn’t confirm my priors. What’s not to understand?

Well, the person that liked your post is literally that person

Everyone is like this to some extent, I'm guilty of this as well sometimes.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1583406389522595840

Couvillon has it stuck in his head that if Dems are not voting at close to 2020 absentee rates that's bad for Democrats. That's just not going to happen. Some voters will continue to vote absentee after 2020 but most will revert to their pre COVID voting pattern.

BTW first day turnout of in person early voting matched 2018 almost exactly. Absentee voting has about tripled 2018 absentee voting but does not make up a large portion of the vote. Overall early voting is running slightly ahead of 2018 in North Carolina.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/2022-10-21%20Daily%20Absentee%20Stats%20Report%20-%202022%20General.pdf

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would any normally Democratic black voters vote for Walker? What exactly does Walker have in terms of crossover appeal? Is it his impeccable personal credentials or his very articulate and well argued policy stances?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why would any normally Democratic black voters vote for Walker? What exactly does Walker have in terms of crossover appeal? Is it his impeccable personal credentials or his very articulate and well argued policy stances?

The same idiots who thought Black people would vote for Kanye to such an extent that it would make Biden lose.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1583406389522595840

Couvillon has it stuck in his head that if Dems are not voting at close to 2020 absentee rates that's bad for Democrats. That's just not going to happen. Some voters will continue to vote absentee after 2020 but most will revert to their pre COVID voting pattern.

BTW first day turnout of in person early voting matched 2018 almost exactly. Absentee voting has about tripled 2018 absentee voting but does not make up a large portion of the vote. Overall early voting is running slightly ahead of 2018 in North Carolina.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/2022-10-21%20Daily%20Absentee%20Stats%20Report%20-%202022%20General.pdf

I'm not surprised, given that he's also trying to set a narrative that the GA vote being at 33%+ black vote after 4 robust days is.... bad for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

Something to continue to watch is return rates:

- Take FL, where Democratic return rates are below the GOP's. Could be an affect of which counties are reporting, but if it continues, could be a big warning sign for Dems

- in PA, however, Democratic return rates continue to build over the GOPs among the mail vote. Dems now at 39.9%, vs Rep 37.9%, after originally trailing GOP for many days.

- in NE, the return rates are huge for Democrats. 37% of Ds have returned their ballots, compared to 27% of Rs.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1583511876050112513

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/nataliehb/status/1583266296392609793

I'm thinking of shifting PA-GOV from Safe D to Tossup if this disaster for Democrats continues.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting chart of early voting history in Georgia. 2020's absentee ballot numbers really look like an aberration. Interesting that while in person and total early voting is going gangbusters absentee voting is at it's lowest level since 2014.

https://twitter.com/charlesminshew/status/1583604078814572544

[Tintrlvr]

Interesting chart of early voting history in Georgia. 2020's absentee ballot numbers really look like an aberration. Interesting that while in person and total early voting is going gangbusters absentee voting is at it's lowest level since 2014.

https://twitter.com/charlesminshew/status/1583604078814572544

Didn't Georgia make it much harder to vote absentee this year?

[Minnesota Mike]

Didn't Georgia make it much harder to vote absentee this year?

I think so but I'll have to google what exactly they did. It appears people are saying to hell with all the added hassle I will vote in person.

Update.

Changes in absentee ballot voting in Georgia.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/local/absentee-ballots-nov-election-2022-ga/85-fe99ed46-ae17-4aff-a82e-27ed0a85bdba

Absentee ballots were mailed later and requesting them became harder. Instead of requesting an absentee ballot purely online you you need to print and sign the application then scan/mail it in. I'm sure a lot of old folks and those who are not tech savvy might not be comfortable doing that. Or they could be someone like me who has not had ink in my printer for 5 years.

[wbrocks67]

Didn't Georgia make it much harder to vote absentee this year?

I think so but I'll have to google what exactly they did. It appears people are saying to hell with all the added hassle I will vote in person.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the new voting law made it much harder to vote by mail this time around. I think there were certain exceptions, where in 2020 anyone can do it.

Also I have no idea why anyone is comparing PA to 2018. We didn't have largely no-exception mail in voting until 2020.

[TwinGeeks99]

https://twitter.com/nataliehb/status/1583266296392609793
I'm thinking of shifting PA-GOV from Safe D to Tossup if this disaster for Democrats continues.

Comparing this year to 2018 is an apples to oranges comparison. In 2018 there wasn't a pandemic that incentivized people to seek alternatives and for state officials to provide said alternatives.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nataliehb/status/1583266296392609793
I'm thinking of shifting PA-GOV from Safe D to Tossup if this disaster for Democrats continues.

Comparing this year to 2018 is an apples to oranges comparison. In 2018 there wasn't a pandemic that incentivized people to seek alternatives and for state officials to provide said alternatives.

And in 2018 there were still rules about mail-in voting. You couldn't just request one just because you wanted to. It's a similar situation to the new GA law now. That's the type of thing that PA had pre-2020, even a bit stricter.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/nataliehb/status/1583266296392609793
I'm thinking of shifting PA-GOV from Safe D to Tossup if this disaster for Democrats continues.

Comparing this year to 2018 is an apples to oranges comparison. In 2018 there wasn't a pandemic that incentivized people to seek alternatives and for state officials to provide said alternatives.

And in 2018 there were still rules about mail-in voting. You couldn't just request one just because you wanted to. It's a similar situation to the new GA law now. That's the type of thing that PA had pre-2020, even a bit stricter.

It looks like anyone can still request one in GA, but they have to physically print, sign, and upload the request form or mail the signed request form in.  In PA, you had to have a specific excuse to vote absentee in 2018, so that was even stricter. 

Requirements vary widely even in states where any voter can request an absentee ballot.  For example, Oklahoma allows any registered voter to request an absentee ballot, but (with specific exceptions involving e.g. nursing homes) they must be notarized. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is a lot of misinformation in this thread about Georgia absentee voting.  First, ANY VOTER can still request an absentee ballot, with no excuses needed.  This has been true since 2005!  However, last year's change to the law did make it less easy; it's now necessary to provide a form of government ID with the absentee ballot application, which was not true before.

See https://georgia.gov/vote-absentee-ballot for more information on how to vote absentee in Georgia.

[wbrocks67]

There is a lot of misinformation in this thread about Georgia absentee voting.  First, ANY VOTER can still request an absentee ballot, with no excuses needed.  This has been true since 2005!  However, last year's change to the law did make it less easy; it's now necessary to provide a form of government ID with the absentee ballot application, which was not true before.

See https://georgia.gov/vote-absentee-ballot for more information on how to vote absentee in Georgia.

Yeah, makes sense why it's dropped off so much. Just hitting the "request" button is a much different story than having to go out and show ID with the application, etc. I can imagine many people just not bothering.