UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[EastAnglianLefty]

I believe for the first time since 2019 the Government have been defeated on a whipped vote in the Commons- the vote in question was on the infected blood scandal and essentially called for the Government to provide compensation to the victims

Passed by four votes; ironically the voters in Selby, Mid Beds and Tamworth could well be to thanks.

Though the SDLP is also claiming it was their 2 MPs wot won it

Which is I'm sure entirely unconnected to Colm Eastwood needing to make an argument for why his seat needs a non-abstenstionist MP...

[Hnv1]

23 Tory rebels on the motion, from disparate backgrounds, from One Nation to ERG. Caroline Nokes, Rehman Chishti, Andrea Jenkyns and Damian Green agreeing on a policy - feels vaguely end-of-days.

The government had briefed this out as worth withdrawing the whip over, if the three-line whip was broken. Can't imagine that'll happen, given what it would do to their majority...

There was also 26 Tory rebels opposing the governments introduction of the zero emission vehicle mandate. That one had all the expected names on an issue like that (Braverman, Cash, Cates, Drax, Gullis, Jenkyns, IDS etc).

If whipping is already a bit on the shaky side - what's it going to look like when the emergency legislation on Rwanda is introduced? Amendments from both sides of the party, and grandstanding all around.

Presumably it gets turned into a confidence motion to keep the troops onside?

I can't believe IDS is still an MP. what exactly is he waiting to happen with his political career?

[Torrain]

I can't believe IDS is still an MP. what exactly is he waiting to happen with his political career?

He’s a huge China hawk, so that occupies most of his time. He also seems to want a final stretch as a minister, but turned down Leader of the House under Truss because he thought it was beneath him (which was immediately rendered ironic when, 72 hours later, the Leader was called on to proclaim the new monarch, and then play a very prominent role in the coronation).

He won his seat by a slim margin of only 1,000 votes in 2019, so he’s basically DOA next year.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JackElsom/status/1732087439785689179
Nothing would be more Rishi Sunak than to stake your last political capital on a Rwanda deportation policy, and then accepting more arrivals than he sends there.

[Sol]

Who are refugees in Rwanda these days anyway? Banyamulenge and Tutsis from the Eastern Congo?

[Chickpeas]

He won his seat by a slim margin of only 1,000 votes in 2019, so he’s basically DOA next year.

I'm assuming he will stand down at the next election to avoid the humiliation and hope his grandee status as a former leader leads to the offering of a peerage in the dissolution honours.  

[CumbrianLefty]

Many do indeed assume that (not least due to his age) but so far he is insisting he will stand again.

[Torrain]

There’s been reporting about Tory MPs being asked to delay retirement announcements into the new year, with a group expected to announce in January. Unless IDS plans to hold on until the bitter end, he seems like a likely candidate to be in that group.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boundary changes are mildly favourable to the Conservatives there and it is plausible that they would have a better chance of somehow clinging on to the seat (or, more plausibly, keeping down the majority) with a candidate other than the now rather polarizing and contentious IDS.

[YL]

Two years ago today fieldwork was completed for a Redfield & Wilton poll with figures Con 38 Lab 36 Lib Dem 9 Green 6.  It remains the most recent Westminster poll showing a Conservative lead.

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

[Hnv1]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

A. Are you high?
B. you're federal elected legislature will naturally be dominated by rump England

[Lord Halifax]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

Separating Cumberland from England and the Lowlands from Scotland and then making "rump-England" a unitary state apart from a cross border Northumberland sounds like a good way to piss off a lot of people.

Doesn't Cornwall have more of a separate identity than Cumberland? and what about an autonomous "Greater London" if you're going to divide England anyway.

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

A. Are you high?
B. you're federal elected legislature will naturally be dominated by rump England

I'd appreciate it if you showed some respect for the ancient constitution.

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

Separating Cumberland from England and the Lowlands from Scotland and then making "rump-England" a unitary state apart from a cross border Northumberland sounds like a good way to piss off a lot of people.

Doesn't Cornwall have more of a separate identity than Cumberland? and what about an autonomous "Greater London" if you're going to divide England anyway.

By Cumberland I mean a cross-border Cumberland, incorporating the whole of Cumbria or Strathclyde. And not the whole of the Lowlands: just Lothian. In the finest tradition, the obsolete shire boundaries shall be redrawn as convenient. The resulting shires, as with the boroughs, will have strong local governments.

A new city stretching from Winchester to Southampton will serve as a planned capital. London will be to this what Liverpool is to it now; a mere provincial city.

[CumbrianLefty]

Heh, going back a full thousand years

[Wiswylfen]

Heh, going back a full thousand years

Let Richard Johnson, Yuan Yi Zhu, and all the other overrated defenders of the unwritten and/or political constitution tremble at the English constitution. Admittedly Athelstan's national assemblies were a major departure from the earlier assemblies, the members of which were elected from each hundred by FPTP.

[Sol]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

I'm mad at you because I've been working on an alternate history which is similar to this.

[Torrain]

I'm ameanable to a federal Britain, but only if England gets split into its regions, which each get their own legislature in the mould of the devolved nations, and allocations of Senators to the new House of Nations & Regions:



If we're going to do federalism and constitutional reform, let’s go all-in.

Besides - if the nations and regions are getting a place in a new upper chamber (which I think is the defacto in this scenario), it’s nice for Scotland and Wales to be a co-equal partner with the likes of Yorkshire, rather than dwarfed by an English bloc. Maybe even gang up with Northern Regions against London and the South East for more levelling up cash.

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

I'm mad at you because I've been working on an alternate history which is similar to this.

It is a roughly modernised 10th-century England. I've done (or at least planned) a few things in the past with independent Cumberlands and autonomous Northumberlands though.

[Conservatopia]

This is really interesting and a discussion about a written constitution and federalism is great and I have plenty of ideas, but could we have a separate thread for it please?

This thread is for discussing bad/hilarious things our political class is doing.

[CumbrianLefty]

And we're not really short of material for that right now.....

[Blair]

The last week does beg the question of why the conservatives want another term in office!

[MABA 2020]

The last week does beg the question of why the conservatives want another term in office!

Do they though? A lot of them seem to be already in the opposition in their minds

[CumbrianLefty]

The last week does beg the question of why the conservatives want another term in office!

To stop Labour having one, because that would devastate "the libs".

That's really all there is to them now.

[Torrain]

Ok. I know the expectation is that we're still going to trudge on for another year, and get an election in Q4, and that's almost certainly the median outcome.

But I'm bored, so let me play devil's advocate for May for a minute:

• Most seats up in the 2024 locals were supposed to be elected in 2020, but instead went up for election in the delayed 2021 locals. The Tories had a 10 point lead then, and are 20 points behind now - so the results are going to be bruising, and undercut what's left of party morale.
• Enthusiasm for the Conservatives is at record lows, so the party will be more dependent on local councillors than ever to knock doors etc. Far better to get them out as part of their personal re-election campaign, when there's still hope - than trying to get the hundreds of councillors who've lost their seats (and are begrudging, job-hunting and/or disillusioned) out on the doors in the following winter.
• There's some talk within the party that ReformUK are currently on a poor electoral footing, with few candidates, and Farage still out in the wilderness. If they actually do pose a threat (debatable), better to give them 4 months, rather than 11, to prepare.
• At the moments, Sunak can point to the 'declining' small boat numbers, massaging the statistics to focus on the winter, when no one crosses. If he holds the election in the autumn, it'll come right after the summer, when the crossings are at their peak, and he manifestly hasn't "stopped the boats".