2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[wbrocks67]

I find it hard to believe there are still nearly 30K mail-in ballots left to count on the GOP side. That would mean there has to be like 100K on the Dem side left somehow and ... other than late arrivals and provisionals, I don't know where these are coming from? Unless there's a few counties that weren't even opening mail-ins until today, which I believe i heard somewhere.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls were so wrong and they can be wrong on Biden Approvals that's why we have to wait til we vote to see if it's a red or blue wave, what happened to Keynetta and Conor Lamb and Barnette

The polls were Wrong , I am holding off on FL, NC, OH and IA because  Beasley is tied against Budd and GOP candidates are political newcomers like Vance whom are gonna get Kenneth Blackwell margins in the Blk community, unlike Portman whom didn't win Blks but was not a Trumpian

[wbrocks67]

Yikes, the OR GOP party might be just as incompetent as the PA GOP and FL Dems at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL has a Cuban Embargo on it thats why Rs are Favs

[Nyvin]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

[S019]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

If it flips it’s strictly down to national environment and would have happened to Schrader as well and a likely two year rental. In a neutral year, the new district is likely D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

OR-05 being an R flip is not really a very likely scenario unless the D candidate runs an atrocious campaign or the year produces a margin for Rs akin to what 2018 produced for Ds (8.1-8.2 points, iirc, once you adjust for uncontested races).

[S019]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

If it flips it’s strictly down to national environment and would have happened to Schrader as well and a likely two year rental. In a neutral year, the new district is likely D.

Yeah basically this, if Democrats lose a Biden+9 seat, they have far bigger issues than “scary non conservative.” Never mind that Democrats shouldn’t even have outright conservatives (like Schrader) in the caucus to begin with.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

If it flips it’s strictly down to national environment and would have happened to Schrader as well and a likely two year rental. In a neutral year, the new district is likely D.

Yeah basically this, if Democrats lose a Biden+9 seat, they have far bigger issues than “scary non conservative.” Never mind that Democrats shouldn’t even have outright conservatives in the caucus to begin with.

Unfortunately, the DCCC leadership probably won't see it that way. They will insist that a conservadem like Schrader would have won and will work overtime in 2024 to stop progressives from winning primaries

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

[Sol]

Prediction for NC House primaries: Foushee wins the NC-04 primary by like 10-15 points, winning every county. Hope I'm wrong!

Allam will win some precincts in Durham--basically all of the heavily white ones plus the tiny one that has NC Central maybe. She'll probably also win in the more working class parts of Carrboro.

Clay Aiken will run a distant 3rd, doing best outside of Durham and Orange counties.

I was right in terms of the margin, but it looks like I underestimated potential regional polarization. Allam won Durham by a decentish margin, really only losing in majority-Black precincts. Meanwhile Foushee did quite well in Orange County, though as expected her win was pretty regionally polarized--many precincts in Carrboro gave Allam thrashing victories. Clay Aiken did way worse than I thought, lol, ranking with the other no-hoper candidates running at 7.3%, but he was the second place finisher in most of the non-metropolitan counties.

The results in Chapel Hill/Carrboro are very indicative imo of local cultural and class divides in kind of an interesting way; if you wanted an election to really tell you where people in Carrboro and Chapel Hill stood ideologically this would be it.
-In central Chapel Hill, Allam won almost everywhere; she lost the precinct NS, which probably in the Blackest precinct in Chapel Hill proper. However, Allam's wins were almost always narrow, and given that Foushee actually won the early vote for this area narrowly, it's plausible that a few of these might flip if those votes were redistributed. Notably Allam only narrowly won the precinct UNC, which has the University of North Carolina campus and where the vast majority of voters are undergrads. This part of Chapel Hill is more upscale/gentrified so it being weaker for Allam makes sense; the students who live on campus are going to be younger and consequently closer to their parents' views, similar to how some on-campus precincts are more conservative than the surrounding area in big college towns like Madison. Ironically, one of Allam's best precincts in this areas was EA1, which is an extremely affluent leafy area to the east of UNC where a lot of professors and administrators live.
-Allam absolutely dominated in Carrboro, particularly in the less affluent/more studenty areas. Carrboro attracts a pretty granola set and although it's gentrifying it's still noticeably cheaper than central CH. OW1 was Allam's best precinct in the county; it has a lot of grad students but also a lot of quite cheap working-class housing (and iirc is the most Latino and Karen part of the city).
-Foushee dominated in suburban Chapel Hill, which is the more monied and less studenty part of the area. It's one of the most affluent areas of the state, in fact. The exception is along the 15-501 corridor, which has more apartments and cheaper housing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC-1 R - Smith
NC-2 R - Villaverde
NC-6 R - Castelli
NC-7 D - Graham
NC-12 R - Lee
NC-13 R - Hines
PA-6 R - Ciarrocchi
PA-7 R - Scheller
PA-10 D - Daniels
PA-12 D - Lee
OR-5 R - Chavez-DeRemer
OR-6 D - Salinas
OR-6 R - Erickson
OR-SEN R - Perkins
OR-GOV R - Drazan
ID-SEN D - Roth
ID-SEN R - Crapo
ID-GOV R - Little
ID-LT GOV R - Bedke
ID-Attorney General R - Labrador
ID-Superintendent R - Critchfield
ID-2 R - Simpson

Still not called:

KY-3 R
ID-SOS R
PA-SEN R
OR-5 D

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

I'm not disagreeing with you but I'm just saying what I think is going to happen

[wbrocks67]

This kind of stuff is insane. They should be working 24/7 IMO to finish this out. There's no reason for *TWO DAY* breaks.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1526929653264527360

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This kind of stuff is insane. They should be working 24/7 IMO to finish this out. There's no reason for *TWO DAY* breaks.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1526929653264527360

Good to see that in this amazing era of technology, we're reverting back to elections 1850's-style where the votes aren't fully counted for days.  

[Gracile]

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

[OSR stands with Israel]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Very silly that we still can't get calls in PA-Sen R and OR-5. PA-12 is going to recount but Lee looks to be the favorite. This is all Lancaster County's fault

[OBD]

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

Hate to be that guy but I'm a little less confident in McLeod-Skinner's chances. Clackamas is Schrader's home base (and the largest county in the district to boot) and is barely in right now - if that goes badly for JMS Schrader is very much still in the game.

Not that what's in isn't encouraging, though - hopefully McLeod-Skinner can close the gap in Clackamas and secure the W.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

I'm not disagreeing with you but I'm just saying what I think is going to happen

I wasn’t disagreeing with you either, I’m saying I’m frustrated with this notion that being more conservative, or even just being performatively obstructionist, will increase electability that seems stuck in allot of the D party movers heads.

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

Hate to be that guy but I'm a little less confident in McLeod-Skinner's chances. Clackamas is Schrader's home base (and the largest county in the district to boot) and is barely in right now - if that goes badly for JMS Schrader is very much still in the game.

Not that what's in isn't encouraging, though - hopefully McLeod-Skinner can close the gap in Clackamas and secure the W.

I the NYT estimates of votes remaining (before they paywalled me) are accurate, he needs to net a hair over 9,000 votes of a remaining 31,000. That’s not impossible, but he would need to absolutely dominate Clackamas to do it.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Pretty funny thing that I noticed, but Kathy Barnette is winning the county where I currently live (Lancaster), the county where I work (Berks), and the county where I grew up (Montgomery)

I'll likely be moving back in with my parents in Bucks County soon, which is Oz territory. Guess that's the combo breaker.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

This is good to note. He underperforms Statewide and National Dems.
People see Blue Dog and assume electoral titan when there is no evidence that a generic Dem wouldn’t do better in this case.

Also, did some back of the table math, I’m seeing estimates of 55% in and McLeod-Skinner up by about 9,000 votes. If those numbers are accurate Schader would need to win 64% of outstanding votes to win here. It’s not impossible but doesn’t look great for him.

Nailed it

Where do I sign up for my job with Cook?

[Lief 🗽]

STOP THE STEAL
https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1526954652494962688?s=21