2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Lief 🗽]

Is there a reason that mods are deleting posts pointing out that Republicans who are explicitly running on ending democracy will end democracy if elected?

[xavier110]

The strangest result from AZ is Cooper winning the AZ04 GOP nod. Probably moves it from potential tilt D more to lean or likely D for Stanton…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The strangest result from AZ is Cooper winning the AZ04 GOP nod. Probably moves it from potential tilt D more to lean or likely D for Stanton…

Honestly, I’d say it probably goes from Lean D (closer to Tilt than Likely) -> Likely D (closer to Safe than Lean)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a reason that mods are deleting posts pointing out that Republicans who are explicitly running on ending democracy will end democracy if elected?

I'll see what I can find out about this.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Is there a reason that mods are deleting posts pointing out that Republicans who are explicitly running on ending democracy will end democracy if elected?

I agree - I'd like to throw my infraction onto the pile as well. Given her lack of Jewishness and her condoning an anti-Semitic attack on her Jewish opponent, I don't believe it's "excessively hyperbolic" to call Haley Stevens an anti-Semite. I reposted this opinion, with full explanation, and nobody took issue with it.

Stuff like our infractions is generally why I'd like to see the "excessive hyperbole" category done away with. Political figures will never see the attacks thrown at them here, and hyperbole against posters can easily be infracted under personal attacks. It's a grey area that I've found often used to take down controversial opinions instead of challenging them in the public square.

The recent actions represent a shift in moderation culture on the board. CE has historically been a place where you could share your opinion without being infracted. It's been ran as a hands-off board for years, and been an escape from the stifling moderation in places like USGD. It's nowhere to the point of Inks-style moderation yet, but I'm starting to see the same philosophy pop up here lately and it's a concern.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling AZ-4 R for Cooper!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3 Slot 2
WA-4
WA-7 Slot 2
WA-8 Slot 2
AZ-SOS D
KS-Treasurer R

[Senator Incitatus]

Once again pointing out the need to eliminate “excessive hyperbole” as a moderation cause of action.

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554663623317913600

Looks like another Eric is going to be elected to Congress in Missouri.

[Minnesota Mike]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

[wbrocks67]

200K+ votes counted in WA and topline stays about the same - Murray falls slightly from 54.0 to 53.8. Smiley up slightly from 32.0 to 32.4. Possible Murray still stays 18-20 above Smiley by the end, since there's only a few more hundred thousand to count right?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Aside from the Kansas referendum, which I wrote a whole spiel on already in its dedicated thread, I only really have one observation and one question about last night's primary:

1. Observation: I think Arizona has now become the most consequential state when it comes to its elections this year, usurping Pennsylvania. I'm very mixed on all of the election denialists winning their respective primaries this year, from Lake to Masters to that Sam Elliott wannabe, and even though they're possibly easier to beat, I don't have the confidence in them all being defeated this year unlike the situation in Pennsylvania. Even just one of their statewide candidates winning could have horrific national consequences. It kind of put a damper on what was an otherwise decent, comforting night. I'm hoping for the best here, maybe Arizonans will finally have had enough of their state constantly producing among the country's worst Republican politicians. But I am also bracing for disappointment.

2. Question: Why did Levin lose so bad? Was it simply because the district was more of Stevens' turf?

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

JHB now leads Kent by 3,930.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say the Kansas result is pretty solid, at the very least it provides a path to codify reproductive rights via ballot initiative where applicable if legislatures get any ideas. Nonetheless, I merely point to the numerous examples of policy-based initiatives (e.g. single-payer flopping in Colorado, Florida going over 60% for a minimum-wage increase while voting 8 points to the right of the nation in 2020) eschewing partisanship as examples to temper any progressive enthusiasm for electoral success this November.

True, but those issues don't necessarily have the passion and enthusiasm as this issue does. And this also showed that Democrats are not just sitting around this year and sitting out the election, which has been an obvious question for how this year would go during a D midterm. Given that Democrats were clearly fired up enough to go vote yesterday, turnout is certainly not going to be an issue this fall, which Rs were clearly banking on to maximize a possible red wave.

That's why I think we're in uncharted territory this year in terms of midterm elections. Almost every midterm, the party in power sits out, is demoralized, leading to the other side usually getting big wins. That doesn't seem to be happening this year.

I suppose, however Rs made similar points about being in uncharted territory 4 years ago due to the strong economy and the Kavanaugh appointment.

Frankly, I can fully admit well.. inflation, the reneged promise on student loan forgiveness, continued inaction on climate change, a failure to protect the right to organize, the gun violence epidemic/rampant drug abuse in my locale, and the failure to address the ongoing affordable housing crisis all directly affect me a lot more than anything related to women's health. And like I've given to the ACLU/other groups which will take direct action on those issues, but it's hard for me to care about other people's concerns at the ballot box when they haven't shown they care about my own. That perhaps is unfairly coloring my analysis of the national Democratic/D-leaning electorate's enthusiasm.

I also struggle to see why abortion specifically such as big and winning issue for Dems is, but then again I am a man and also not of sex age.

If I had to guess though, it's because issues like guns, climate, and democracy feel far away until you yourself are directly affected by it. Meanwhile, unwanted pregnancies are things people know well happen and take pro-active measures in daily life to prevent such as condoms, which means the issue of abortion may feel more tangible, especially to women who really do not want or are not ready for children in their life

Secondly, I think people living in immediate poverty or facing severe drug problems or those sorts of problems are probably some of the least reliable voters in the nation, so when they don't show up, it's less notable.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Looking at the congressional races in Arizona, Walter Blackman, endorsed by Burgess and a good two dozen state representatives and senators, lost to Eli Crane, who is only endorsed by Trump, Finchem, and Kelly Ward.

Daniel Hernandez, endorsed by the likes of Ciciline, Gallego, and several major PACs such as LGBT Victory Fund, Human Rights Campaign, Democratic Majority for Israel, and BOLD PAC, lost to Kirsten Engel, endorsed by Girvalja and Kirkpatrick. Interesting to see how local endorsements outweighed national ones. Had Hernandez been elected he would have been the first Mexican American Jewish congressman.

Also who I had thought was former congresswoman Candice Miller running for the nom against Kildee, is just another woman with the exact same name and spelling as her

[Nyvin]

Is Julie Anderson (WA-SoS) right wing or left wing?  She has some religious background stuff that I can tell, but other than that it seems she's kinda mysterious.

[sting in the rafters]

Gotta say the Kansas result is pretty solid, at the very least it provides a path to codify reproductive rights via ballot initiative where applicable if legislatures get any ideas. Nonetheless, I merely point to the numerous examples of policy-based initiatives (e.g. single-payer flopping in Colorado, Florida going over 60% for a minimum-wage increase while voting 8 points to the right of the nation in 2020) eschewing partisanship as examples to temper any progressive enthusiasm for electoral success this November.

True, but those issues don't necessarily have the passion and enthusiasm as this issue does. And this also showed that Democrats are not just sitting around this year and sitting out the election, which has been an obvious question for how this year would go during a D midterm. Given that Democrats were clearly fired up enough to go vote yesterday, turnout is certainly not going to be an issue this fall, which Rs were clearly banking on to maximize a possible red wave.

That's why I think we're in uncharted territory this year in terms of midterm elections. Almost every midterm, the party in power sits out, is demoralized, leading to the other side usually getting big wins. That doesn't seem to be happening this year.

I suppose, however Rs made similar points about being in uncharted territory 4 years ago due to the strong economy and the Kavanaugh appointment.

Frankly, I can fully admit well.. inflation, the reneged promise on student loan forgiveness, continued inaction on climate change, a failure to protect the right to organize, the gun violence epidemic/rampant drug abuse in my locale, and the failure to address the ongoing affordable housing crisis all directly affect me a lot more than anything related to women's health. And like I've given to the ACLU/other groups which will take direct action on those issues, but it's hard for me to care about other people's concerns at the ballot box when they haven't shown they care about my own. That perhaps is unfairly coloring my analysis of the national Democratic/D-leaning electorate's enthusiasm.

I also struggle to see why abortion specifically such as big and winning issue for Dems is, but then again I am a man and also not of sex age.

If I had to guess though, it's because issues like guns, climate, and democracy feel far away until you yourself are directly affected by it. Meanwhile, unwanted pregnancies are things people know well happen and take pro-active measures in daily life to prevent such as condoms, which means the issue of abortion may feel more tangible, especially to women who really do not want or are not ready for children in their life

Secondly, I think people living in immediate poverty or facing severe drug problems or those sorts of problems are probably some of the least reliable voters in the nation, so when they don't show up, it's less notable.

Not when you live in Philly they aren't. 320 homicides and counting, women selling themselves to eat, Penntrification and Temple slowly pushing out their respective black/Puerto Rican  populations, etc. 

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plus I am currently seeing a woman whom thanks to her insurance plan has easy access to contraception, and my various platonic female-identifying friends have more pressing political concerns themselves.

I think it may be more the other way around: People who care about abortion are more likely to vote to begin with. Which gets to my whole point about how you should be voting in your own interest, never because it's the right thing to do, but I'm not giving a ballot or bullet speech tonight.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Is Julie Anderson (WA-SoS) right wing or left wing?  She has some religious background stuff that I can tell, but other than that it seems she's kinda mysterious.

Is there something in particular you are seeing?

Just seems to be a reformer-type from what I can tell, not especially right or left wing in what she wants to do as SoS.

[NOVA Green]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

JHB now leads Kent by 3,930.

IDK... RI

Really respect your opinions, detailed analysis, and most especially maps over the years.

Still from what I am seeing at this point looking most likely that JHB will be the PUB (Incumbent) to run against a relatively united DEM electorate.

Something I'm missing here old friend???

Honestly bit more used to OR-VBM scene and haven't spent as much activities on the (more recent) WA-VBM scene.

Regardless many other posters who don't understand how VBM works on the West Coast, might perhaps need a bit of further explanation, with no gun toting PUBs floating around polling stations, unlike so many other parts of the USA.

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DDHQ projected that Dan Newhouse will make the top two. Matt Larkin also looks to be the likely GOP candidate in WA-08.

[Xing]

Kent may close the gap a bit more, but he’s probably not gaining quickly enough to make it. Culp definitely looks done.

[RI]

New matchbacks in WA have started to drop. The late vote is definitely much more R than the early vote, and uncounted ballots may be as high as 50% (>45% for sure) of the total vote.

I would not be surprised to see Kent pass JHB still. Culp is a bit harder, but possible.

As of right now in WA-03 Kent has only netted 55 votes so far and still trails JHB by 4,652 votes (that is with 6,613 new votes added). JHB looking safe. In WA-04 Culp is actually losing ground.

JHB now leads Kent by 3,930.

IDK... RI

Really respect your opinions, detailed analysis, and most especially maps over the years.

Still from what I am seeing at this point looking most likely that JHB will be the PUB (Incumbent) to run against a relatively united DEM electorate.

Something I'm missing here old friend???

Honestly bit more used to OR-VBM scene and haven't spent as much activities on the (more recent) WA-VBM scene.

Regardless many other posters who don't understand how VBM works on the West Coast, might perhaps need a bit of further explanation, with no gun toting PUBs floating around polling stations, unlike so many other parts of the USA.

Most of the ED vote hasn't been counted yet (yesterday's update was too small to include it) but should be today. Normally this isn't how Washington's counts work, but many of the most conservative/Trumpiest Republicans went full stupid this year and waited until the very end to vote.

If Kent doesn't jump up today, then it's over.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DDHQ projected that Dan Newhouse will make the top two. Matt Larkin also looks to be the likely GOP candidate in WA-08.

What a bunch of idiots. Dunn would have not only been favored to win in 2022, but he could actually have been able to hold it in 2024.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DDHQ projected that Dan Newhouse will make the top two. Matt Larkin also looks to be the likely GOP candidate in WA-08.

What a bunch of idiots. Dunn would have not only been favored to win in 2022, but he could actually have been able to hold it in 2024.

Tilt R -> Lean D (albeit much closer to Tilt than Likely)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Keys to the TN-5 primary:

-Beth Harwell must win Davidson County by a decent margin and remain competitive in Williamson County.

-Andy Ogles needs to clean up in the Southern portion of the district (Maury, Marshall, Lewis Counties) and would be helped by winning Williamson County.

-Kurt Winstead absolutely needs to win Williamson County and then cut into his two primary competitors' margins in their home bases.

-Wilson County is the real wildcard here, as it will cast a lot of votes, but is not home to any of the three frontrunners.  If there's a surprise fourth competitive candidate, I suspect they will do well there.