2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Utah Neolib]

I’ve heard that the combined congressional primary vote in Washington is a good bellwether for indicating house results.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We can argue whether it was the right thing to do but the DCCC spending for Gibbs just may flip this race.

Anyway, I'd say that considering it's mostly Kent County and Muskegon vote outstanding, it's way too early to conclude that.

This is anyone's race at this point, if not slightly favoring Meijer.

Gibbs margin is growing with every update. He is about to take the lead in Kent county. It's over.

I disapprove of (though I understand) the Democratic strategy to prop up Gibbs. I don't think anyone should be punished for doing the right thing

Than why did we just have a discussion if you just like me disapprove it?

You were acting like the DCCC was some evil criminal organization when they were just playing politics the same way Karl Rove's PAC was when it propped up Bernie Sanders against Hillary in 2016.

I don't agree with that, even if I also don't agree with the strategy in this particular instance.

Okay than I apologize for my earlier comments.

But yes i don't like this strategy. I just don't think it is an ethical thing to do, because basically you support an anti-democrat against a democratic in order to be perceived as the more democratic option, thus the option to save democracy in order to increase the changes you spend money and resources on anti-democratic candidates. That in my view really isn't a democratic thing to do, even if the end justifies the means, it corrupts the end as well.

[GALeftist]

So long, Meijer, don't let the door hit ya on the way out. Hopefully Gibbs is next; very optimistic, especially with the abortion referendum on the ballot, which given the Kansas results will probably win by 30 or something ludicrous

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MI-3 R for Gibbs.
Calling MI-10 D for Marlinga!
Calling MI-12 R for Elliott!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3 Slot 2
WA-4
WA-7 Slot 2
WA-8 Slot 2
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MI-6 R
MI-13 D
KS-Treasurer R

[Alben Barkley]

So long, Meijer, don't let the door hit ya on the way out. Hopefully Gibbs is next; very optimistic, especially with the abortion referendum on the ballot, which given the Kansas results will probably win by 30 or something ludicrous

Good point. I'd rather have a Dem than Meijer. But part of me does feel queasy about knocking off the vanishingly few remaining decent and sane Republicans, I must confess. Just accelerates polarization.

That said, I'm not convinced any push by the DCCC was decisive compared to Trump's endorsement in this race in any case.

[Senator Incitatus]

FWIW, a lot of Washington's R votes haven't been counted yet. There was a big movement to have WA R's vote on ED this year. Not saying it will make a difference in winners, but the story may look a bit different at the end of the week.

This is reassuring for Kent and Culp, I would imagine.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554683159899508737?s=20&t=DdtAOKXyN2x...
DCCC strategy might pay off anyway.

I legit just made a $10 donation to Scholten.

If we're gonna play with fire, then we damn well better bring it home this November.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also really glad about the KS referendum result. I thought the "no" would win, but I didn't expect the margin to be this big, unless the margin will get closer by a ton.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The DCCC playing this game in legislative seats is relatively low-risk, high-reward. Playing it in gubernatorial races is high-risk, high-reward and should not be touched. If Mastriano wins in PA, for instance, that puts the integrity of the next election in jeopardy. Gibbs isn't going to have nearly that power.

Anyway, mixed bag of a night overall but I was glad to see some of the craziest candidates like Lake and Greitens go down, and I was personally pretty happy to see the repulsive Stephanie Gallardo finish third and be eliminated in her race.

[OSR stands with Israel]

FWIW, a lot of Washington's R votes haven't been counted yet. There was a big movement to have WA R's vote on ED this year. Not saying it will make a difference in winners, but the story may look a bit different at the end of the week.

Congrats on making it to the General Election:

https://www.tallahassee.com/elections/results/race/2022-08-02-state_house-WA-48304/

[Devils30]

The DCCC playing this game in legislative seats is relatively low-risk, high-reward. Playing it in gubernatorial races is high-risk, high-reward and should not be touched. If Mastriano wins in PA, for instance, that puts the integrity of the next election in jeopardy. Gibbs isn't going to have nearly that power.

Anyway, mixed bag of a night overall but I was glad to see some of the craziest candidates like Lake and Greitens go down, and I was personally pretty happy to see the repulsive Stephanie Gallardo finish third and be eliminated in her race.

Lake can still comeback, the remaining vote is probably very friendly for her.

[wesmoorenerd]

kansas kalled for kobach

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't think we will get anymore from WA tonight. Next estimated vote dump at 3:00 tomorrow.



https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/turnout.html

[Skill and Chance]

The DCCC playing this game in legislative seats is relatively low-risk, high-reward. Playing it in gubernatorial races is high-risk, high-reward and should not be touched. If Mastriano wins in PA, for instance, that puts the integrity of the next election in jeopardy. Gibbs isn't going to have nearly that power.

Anyway, mixed bag of a night overall but I was glad to see some of the craziest candidates like Lake and Greitens go down, and I was personally pretty happy to see the repulsive Stephanie Gallardo finish third and be eliminated in her race.

Lake can still comeback, the remaining vote is probably very friendly for her.

Lake has already flipped a bunch of rural counties but Robson is holding up well in the cities.  Do we have a clear sense of how much is left?

[MT Treasurer]

Schmidt currently with the same percentage of the vote as Moran (80.4%) — an extremely impressive showing on his part which inspires at least some confidence about his GE prospects.

[NOVA Green]

DEMS really need to push hard and strong on down-ballot State and House Elections in the US, since ultimately in many states this is where the war for female reproductive rights will be won and lost.

GOV races should also be key targets, since in many states that might provide veto power over PUB Gerrymanders State HD and SD's.

Naturally, nationalizing the issue in any thing approaching a "swing district" in the US-House should be targets of the DCCC.

Hard to imagine this issue hurts DEMS in competitive US-SEN elections...

We already have a "common sense Gun law" which passed the US-SEN with quite a few PUB votes... so carefully pick targets who opposed.

Now looking quite likely we might have a Senior Citizen major increase of the cost of their medications, combined with a significant investment into Climate Change investment, so that we can reduce our GHG emission as Americans to perhaps cause an irreversible surge in Climate Change.

Not nearly anywhere close to what I was hoping when it came to the original BBB, but reality is that voters in many parts of America actually support significant policy changes to address Climate Change related issues...

Anyways--- brief 2 cents worth, but thinking might be some decent recoveries in 2022, and plus voters might well sour on PUB obstruction (Assuming they sweep the House), and quite possibly narrowly flip the Senate in 2022 as well.

Americans are extremely frustrated and upset, but honestly really not enamored of the Republican agenda, let alone their PUB "Fuhrer" in the form of Donald Trump, who really appears to a large majority of Americans as someone with extreme authoritarian instincts and actual actions.

[GALeftist]

OK, now that the dust has settled, time for a roundup of Ws and Ls.

Ls:
- Andy Levin losing is a real bummer. We've gotta find a way to deal with AIPAC.
- Kobach is back, and in a much redder year than 2018 he's probably the favorite to win KS AG.
- I don't particularly like Shri Thanedar, although to be fair I don't really like any of these people, and it's pretty stupid that John James will probably be the only black congressperson (maybe alongside Gibbs lol) from Michigan even though Tlaib rocks and I'm glad she won.

Ws:
- KANSAS ABORTION REFERENDUM. I thought it was likely to get voted down but this is a complete faceplant for pro-birthers and confirmation that outside of maybe a dozen states we have a comfortable pro-choice majority.
- Gibbs winning probably means Scholten is favored in November and even if she loses he's 100% a goner in 2024.
- Bush and Tlaib, of course, demolished their opponents.
- JHB and Newhouse will probably stick around in Washington, which is better than the alternative.

Undecided:
- My ideal scenario in AZ-GOV is an extremely tight Robson victory with as many lawsuits and accusations of fraud and general instances of pandemonium as possible. We'll see.
- Washington numbers look pretty OK so far, but I don't think we have a clear enough picture yet to say much definitively.

Overall, definitely an amazing night!

[Crumpets]

Atlas-style map of the Kansas abortion vote:

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Atlas-style map of the Kansas abortion vote:

Ancestral Dems in Crawford County pulling through.

[Crumpets]

Here's the Washington Senate primary:



A bit of a blast from the past; looks a lot more like something from 2008-2012 than post-Trump with the SW sticking with Murray (at least plurality Murray) and Whitman going plurality for Smiley.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's the Washington Senate primary:



A bit of a blast from the past; looks a lot more like something from 2008-2012 than post-Trump with the SW sticking with Murray (at least plurality Murray) and Whitman going plurality for Smiley.

It reminds me of the 2013-2023 congressional map.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

kansas kalled for kobach

Or KKforK (KKK)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Swing map.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling AZ-SEN R for Masters!
Calling AZ-SOS R for Finchem!
Calling AZ-2 R for Crane!
Calling AZ-Superintendent R for Horne!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3 Slot 2
WA-4
WA-7 Slot 2
WA-8 Slot 2
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-4 R
AZ-AG R
MI-6 R
MI-13 D
KS-Treasurer R

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m really curious to see how the NY-19 special plays out given these results.

Most would expect at face value for the seat to go R given fundamentals; the seat was narrow for Biden, it’s open, and Rs have a strong candidate.

However, it’s also a seat that strongly supports abortion rights and that has become a central theme of the campaign there. Furthermore, the Dems are very reliant upon college communities such as Ithaca tow in the district. It could help reveal if any of this anger towards the overturning of Roe translates to federal elections.