Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10 (user search)
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 28035 times)
jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #600 on: July 10, 2022, 11:11:03 AM »

With the close results in the multi member districts making such a key difference, how do regular voters determine which candidate of the party they prefer to go with? I understand Komeito's voting networks are extremely precise but how does a regular CDP or LDP voter make sure that their vote is efficient?

Also, the one thing that I expected last night was that Sanseito would overperform after seeing them draw crowds of a size no >1% party could garner. It seemed doubtful that their likely voters would be swayed by a sympathy vote.



The assassination probably cost Ishin Nara and Kyoto though.

My mental model was that the assassination would push up turnout with marginal voters which would dilute the anti-system vote.  I also figured the assassination would at least reduce anti-system turnout.  Instead, it seems the anti-system vote is stronger than ever.

As for vote coordination, the local party organization I heard does stuff like "men vote for A, women vote for B" or some other scheme like this.  I hear less of these stories last decade or so.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #601 on: July 10, 2022, 11:19:24 AM »

With 20% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

Some urban votes are coming in.  CDP numbers look very bad. 

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      39.3%                 21     39.0%         
KP         7       12.7%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         2.9%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.0%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        6       11.9%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         4.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.4%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.5%                  4      7.5%           
Others              0.9%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #602 on: July 10, 2022, 11:21:41 AM »

Asahi calls the 5th and last seat in  神奈川(Kanagawa) for CDP.  A superset of media houses now has all district seats called.

I had 2 misses.  I had the 5th and final seat in 神奈川(Kanagawa) for JCP when it was CDP.  I also had 沖縄(Okinawa) going LDP when it went OPPN.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #603 on: July 10, 2022, 11:23:13 AM »

Most likely CDP RP vote will fall to 4th place, behind JRP and KP.  What a disaster.  RS outperforming had something to do with it but it seems CDP is just losing votes to everyone, LDP JRP RS and in some cases JCP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #604 on: July 10, 2022, 11:26:07 AM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #605 on: July 10, 2022, 11:30:27 AM »

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

I will wait on that.  SDP vote has become very rural heavy last few election cycles.  When the urban vote comes in they might fall below 1.8%.  Still, I guess the going all woke must be a feature to capture some of the urban youth votes from CDP.  Still, I guess they know what they are doing
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #606 on: July 10, 2022, 11:33:23 AM »


Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

They pretty much ran on the woke agenda, especially LGBT themes.  I thought it was a desperate move that will not work.  It seems it did.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #607 on: July 10, 2022, 11:43:05 AM »

Asahi also calls a PR seat for PNHK.  The pressure grows on both CDP and KP.  One of the two will end up with just 6 PR seats.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #608 on: July 10, 2022, 12:03:32 PM »

NHK has also called a seat for NHK Party. (lol)
Asahi calls a second seat for RS.

Well, NHK had already experienced that in 2019.  Of course, since PNHK was a new party NHK in 2019 called 1 PR seat for "Other".  Now they have to call it for PNHK
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #609 on: July 10, 2022, 12:05:59 PM »

With 30% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are 

Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka areas are undercounted.  LDP and CDP will take a hit when they do. JRP will gain a lot and JCP will gain some.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      38.6%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.4%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.0%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.1%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       12.7%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         5.0%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.5%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.1%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.3%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #610 on: July 10, 2022, 12:14:33 PM »

Why didn't the Ibaraki LDP run two candidates? They clearly have the votes to sweep.

But they did not know that for sure.  Also just like 広島(Hiroshima) in 2019 having two candidates leads to problems on which one to focus on if it seems LDP cannot win both.  This tends to exacerbate tensions with various factions within the prefectures.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #611 on: July 10, 2022, 12:17:27 PM »

The PR section is an utter disaster for CDP.  It will not surprise me that this leads to CDP re-thinking what the party is all about and should it even exist in its current form.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #612 on: July 10, 2022, 12:19:53 PM »

富山(Toyama) results

LDP      68.8
JRP        9.8
CDP       9.2
JCP        6.0
PP          4.8
PNHK     1.4

Every opposition party is below 10% !!!  The CDP vote share is not a total surprise but the JRP vote share is.  The Abe assassination must have shifted part of the JRP vote to LDP.

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #613 on: July 10, 2022, 12:35:42 PM »

With 40% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

JRP and anti-system parties continue to gain ground and LDP continues to lose ground as more urban votes come in.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      37.2%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.3%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.2%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.2%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       13.9%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         5.2%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.3%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.1%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.4%                  4      7.5%           
Others              0.9%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #614 on: July 10, 2022, 01:33:13 PM »

With 62% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

LDP lost more ground mostly to JRP but also to DPP as well.  CDP regained a bit of ground and got to 7 seats.  KP at 12.1% and 6 seats is pretty bad for then.  I think the numbers will not change that much from here.   LDP-KP only at 48% is a shock and shows how much PP and PNHK gained from disgruntled LDP voters on the PR slate as well.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      35.9%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.1%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.2%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       14.3%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.6%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       7       12.6%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.5%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #615 on: July 10, 2022, 01:42:00 PM »

Amazing that the LDP-KP PR vote share is down to 47.7% which is only a bit above 2021 results.  Shows how badly they were going to get hit if the Abe assassination did not take place.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #616 on: July 10, 2022, 02:26:52 PM »

With 79% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
JRP and DPP continue to gain ground against LDP.  JRP is now up to 8 PR seats.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      35.3%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.0%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.3%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.6%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.8%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.6%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.6%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #617 on: July 10, 2022, 02:52:59 PM »

A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #618 on: July 10, 2022, 03:16:30 PM »

With 90% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
LDP-KP continues to lose ground and is now at 46.5% which is well below the 2021 level of 47.1%

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      34.7%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       11.8%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.3%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.8%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.7%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.3%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.4%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.7%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.1%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #619 on: July 10, 2022, 04:20:03 PM »

With 96% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
LDP-KP continues to lose ground and now LDP is at 18 seats while CDP is back up at 7 seats.  The last batch of votes will determine which of the two will get the final PR seat (LDP 18 or 19, CDP 6 or 7).  LDP-KP is now at 46.2%.  Amazing.

I guess the Abe assassination did not increase the number of LDP voters that much but made it more likely for LDP voters not to defect to other parties in the district vote and make it more likely for JRP voters to vote LDP in district votes.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      18      34.5%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       11.7%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.4%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.8%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       7       12.8%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.4%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.4%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.8%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #620 on: July 10, 2022, 04:30:10 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2022, 06:39:01 PM by jaichind »

I computed the district vote share

             Vote share   Seats won
LDP        38.70%           45
KP           7.11%             7
NPC         0.21%             0 (far right)
JFP          0.14%             0 (far right)
IPS          0.38%             0 (far right)
PP            3.79% !!         0 (far right)
HRP         0.25%             0 (far right but more anti-system than far right)
PNHK       2.08%             0
Ind-OH     0.61%             0 (乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) lean Right)
JRP         10.39%            4
pro-JRP     0.23%            0
OPPN Reb 0.91%             1 (winner likely to join LDP)
DPP          3.32%            2
pro-DPP    2.25%            1
OPPN        3.51%            3
CDP        15.47%          10
pro-CDP    0.67%            0
RS            1.86%            1
SDP          0.33%            0
JCP           6.94%            1
Right        0.25%            0
Left          0.23%            0
Ind.          0.33%            0 (include minor and trival parties)
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #621 on: July 10, 2022, 05:22:23 PM »



A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.
What are the regional profiles of a few of their best results?

Their very best performance is clearly very conservative rural LDP stronghold prefectures.  But they also do above average in urban prefectures where LDP is weak.  Their weakest prefectures are rural prefectures where the LDP is relatively weak.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #622 on: July 10, 2022, 05:24:36 PM »

One of the reasons why the PR count is very slow again this year is most likely the significant number of PR votes with the word "民主" (Democratic) which will have to be pro-rated and distributed between CDP and DPP.  In 2021 that took a while and led to a last-minute jump in the votes DPP received.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #623 on: July 10, 2022, 05:30:19 PM »

KP only winning 6 seats is a major shock.

Yeah. Their PR vote crashing below 12% must be sounding alarm bells in KP high command.   It seems it is in Greater Tokyo that KP lost most of its votes relative to 2021.  The old KP urban base is slowly declining election cycle by election cycle.  The KP's march to a rural Southern party continues.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #624 on: July 10, 2022, 05:36:47 PM »

NHK projects that CDP wins the 7th PR seat driving LDP to only 18 PR seats.  18 seats for LDP were on the slightly lower end of LDP PR projections BEFORE the Abe assassination.  For LDP to only get 18 PR seats is a setback given the events of the last few days.
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