Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

I made this point before but just like CDP has a strategic dilemma on if it should prioritize alliance with DPP/JRP or JCP the JRP has a similar dilemma on where should it expand its base.

The ideal strategy for JRP should be to eat into the LDP base so it can eventually become the new dominant Center-Right ruling party.  The problem is that during the process of shifting support from LDP to JRP there is an opening for CDP-JCP to come in.  When faced with this threat LDP-JRP swing voters will just jump back to JRP.  If JRP tries to seat into the DPP-CDP vote instead it is faced with the problem of ideological differences between the JRP program and the DPP but especially the CDP base.  Ideally, for JRP the strategy has to beat down the CDP so badly that CDP-JCP is no longer a viable threat and then after the LDP.  This is why you see JRP focusing on CDP in its attacks right now.

[jaichind]

PNHK just came out and nominated candidates in all districts equal to the number of possible winners in each district.  It seems they are going all out to get the anti-system vote to come out and they push their PR vote up so they can have a PR candidate elected.  The question is where are they getting the money for the deposits and the minimal spending just to get posters out there to run everywhere like this ?

[jaichind]

JRP has announced that they will have candidates in all multi-member districts which means venturing into places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 福岡(Fukuoka), and 京都(Kyoto) where they have never contested before.   They will make a big impact on 京都(Kyoto) for sure but their impact on 北海道(Hokkaido) and 福岡(Fukuoka) will be unknown.

They already have candidates in LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) where JRP has been slowly edging out CDP as the main opposition to LDP and 香川(Kagawa) which is a surprise as that is DPP territory and one would think that JRP will leave that seat to its proto-ally DPP.

[jaichind]

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?

Everything outside of foreign policy will become more decentralized.  JRP believes in "prefecture rights" so if JRP were to become the ruling party the prefecture governors and prefecture assemblies will become much more powerful and a good part of the central government budget will be devolved down to them.  Assuming JRP came to power sweeping Western Japan plus various urban centers in the East which is their long term electoral plan, then I can also see JRP moving to de facto divide Japan up into 2 or 3 zones with Osaka being the de facto capital of West Japan and Tokyo being de facto capital of East Japan.  I can even see a Middle Japan zone where Nagoya becomes the de facto capital.   Deep down JRP does not like the central role Tokyo plays in economic and political life and anything to shift power away from Tokyo will be on JRP's agenda.

A more aggressive foreign policy will be something JRP will continue to centralize and push for with higher levels of funding for the military.

[jaichind]

Comparison between Suga and Kashida cabinet approval rating when they took office and half a year later.  Kashida clearly is effective in keeping his support intact.

[jaichind]

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?

Everything outside of foreign policy will become more decentralized.  JRP believes in "prefecture rights" so if JRP were to become the ruling party the prefecture governors and prefecture assemblies will become much more powerful and a good part of the central government budget will be devolved down to them.  Assuming JRP came to power sweeping Western Japan plus various urban centers in the East which is their long term electoral plan, then I can also see JRP moving to de facto divide Japan up into 2 or 3 zones with Osaka being the de facto capital of West Japan and Tokyo being de facto capital of East Japan.  I can even see a Middle Japan zone where Nagoya becomes the de facto capital.   Deep down JRP does not like the central role Tokyo plays in economic and political life and anything to shift power away from Tokyo will be on JRP's agenda.

A more aggressive foreign policy will be something JRP will continue to centralize and push for with higher levels of funding for the military.

This assumes that a JRP that wins power will still care about regionalism. Spoiler alert: They won't. They only care about regionalism now because they're an Osaka-based party who wants to have more power to play in their own sandbox. If they were winning nationally, regionalism would no longer be appealing to them because it would just preserve the power of local LDP and/or CDP administrations in prefectures JRP didn't control.

The JRP's governance would be literally indistinguishable from the LDP's, even in terms of military issues IMO, although that is less certain.

There is a lot of truth in what you are saying.  But the question is "JRP suddenly found itself in charge" which is the JRP as is today.  Many of the JPR leadership I think really care about regionalism and would for sure move in that direction.  I agree in reality the steps JRP has to make to take down CDP and then take down LDP to come to power with KP as its ally would mean it becomes a clone of LDP along the way so when that distant day does come regionalism within JRP would be mostly a solgan by then.

[jaichind]

The situation in the 4- member (and just for this election 5- member) 神奈川(Kanagawa) for the CDP is going from bad to worse as it now faces a total wipeout here.

In 2016 LDP ran 2 candidates, DP ran 2 candidates, KP and JCP ran a candidate each.  Having 3 Center-Left/Left candidates in the fray split the non-Right vote allowing LDP to win 2 seats, KP 1 and DP 1 leading to a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2019 the result was similar except the Center-Left had CDP and DPP candidates each and LDP only one candidate as ex-governor JRP's 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) had a DPJ background before going to YP was in the fray.  The result was a win for LDP KP JRP and CDP again a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2021  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) resigned to run in a failed bid to become mayor of 横浜(Yokohama).  The by-election for his spot was decided to be held at the same time as the 2022 Upper House election where for this election 神奈川(Kanagawa) will become a 5- member district and the 5th place winner will serve out the rest of 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)'s term and have to face re-election in 2025.

One of LDP's 2016 winners resigned late last year to successfully run for a Lower House seat.  In his place, ex-YP leader and former DPJ Upper House MP 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) will run as the second LDP candidate.  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) is going to run as well for JRP as are the other 2016 LDP and KP winners.  The CDP is hoping to run 2 candidates and get the Right/Left split to be 3/2.  CDP took a blow their 2016 incumbent 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) just announced he will retire and not run for re-election.  To be fair 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) who has a LDP background before joining YP and then JRP and then DP and then CDP is in his 70s so this decision was not a shock.  Now CDP has to find 2 solid candidates to run to try to win 2 seats out of 5.  This now seems very unlikely as the 2 LDP candidates, the 1 KP and 1 JRP candidate all seem to be poised to win.  It will be CDP vs JCP to win the last seats and if CDP nominates 2 weak candidates their votes will be split and JCP will win the last seat.

CDP needs a big reboot of their entire 神奈川(Kanagawa)  game plan or they are going to be in big trouble in the Summer.

CDP foolishly nominates 2 candidates, one with some local political experience and the other running in 2019 for DPP in Tokyo.  With DPP also with a candidate, this is headed toward a CDP disaster.

The result is most likely that the 2 LDP candidates, KP, and JRP will come in the first 4 slots with the 2 CDP candidates and JCP trying to win the 5th.  Most likely with the CDP vote split the JCP will win the 5th seat.  Total CDP wipeout.

[jaichind]

It seems Suga is starting a "study session" of various non-mainstream LDP factions (those in red) which also includes the 二階(Nikai) faction.  Ever since 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) lost his position as LDP General Secretary last year the 二階(Nikai) faction has been in decline and now can be viewed as non-mainstream.  It seems Suga wants to try to create a factional coalition that can rival Abe's faction.

Most Japanese LDP faction moves all start as a "study session."  When a block within a faction wants to split they first create an innocuous "study session" where policy is "studied" in various meetings.  Then at some stage "stipends" for studies are passed out at these "study sessions" to make way for the faction split.  Similar logic works for faction fusions which is clearly what Suga is up to here.

[jaichind]

I know you've done so before but please give us a quick breakdown on the factions.

LDP factions have their origins in the merger of the more Conservative and larger LP and the more Liberal and smaller DP in 1955.  LP and DP were rivals for the Center-Right vote and after the merger, their rivalry just continued as factions.

岸田(Kishida) faction - 45 MPs - Came from LP, the oldest of LDP factions and the faction of current PM

谷垣(Tanigaki) faction - 26 MPs - led by Prez of LDP in 2009-2012 and a splinter of 岸田(Kishida) faction

二階(Nikai) faction - 43 MPs - came from DP and was founded by the DP leader 鳩山(Hatoyama)- always considered non-mainstream given its DP background.  Historically known as the pro-PRC faction.  When LDP needs to do deals with the PRC they always send the 二階(Nikai) faction to work things out with the PRC.

森山(Moriyama) faction - 7 MPs - 二階(Nikai) faction splinter - used to be led by 石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) son of the famous governor of Tokyo

安倍(Abe) faction - 94 MPs - came from LP and is now the largest and most right-wing/conservative faction led by former PM Abe

茂木(Motegi) faction - 54 MPs - used to be led by 竹下亘(Takesh**ta Wataru) brother of LDP PM Takesh**ta if the early 1990s.  This is the old powerful Tanaka faction that has an LP background.  Used to dominate LDP in the 1970s to 1990s but Ozawa split the faction and led it outside of LDP.  You can argue that CDP/DPP is merely a Tanaka faction splinter.  Since the Ozawa split this faction has gone into decline and slowly became non-mainstream.  

麻生(Aso) faction - 49 MPs - led by former PM and DPM Aso.  Founded by 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who had a 二階(Nikai) faction background before forming an LDP splinter NLC in 1976-1986.  When he rejoined LDP he formed his own faction.  His son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is a member of this faction ran for leadership for LDP last year (as well as in 2009) with both ending in defeat.  This faction was not that powerful but once leadership moved to Aso it became much more powerful under Aso's leadership.

石破(Ishiba) - 10 MPs - a new faction led by 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) mainly as a vehicle to take on Abe and his faction

菅(Suga) group - 25 MP - In theory this is not a faction but during former PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) long reign as PM Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary he gathered a bunch of non-aligned LDP MP into a bloc that is loyal to Suga so this can be considered a faction.


All things equal the 安倍(Abe) faction, 麻生(Aso) faction, and 岸田(Kishida) faction is considered mainstream, and others non-mainstream.  二階(Nikai) faction is non-mainstream due to the DP background while 茂木(Motegi) faction is non-mainstream due to the stain of the Ozawa split/defection of 1993.  Also, 茂木(Motegi) faction and 安倍(Abe) faction were ancient rivals so with the 安倍(Abe) faction being mainstream by definition 茂木(Motegi) is considered non-mainstream.

二階(Nikai) faction has always had ambitions to break out of its non-mainstream status and become the largest faction ergo this faction had spent a lot of time trying to recruit non-LDP politicians to run as pro-LDP independents hoping if they win they will join 二階(Nikai) faction.  This makes the 二階(Nikai) faction extra unpopular since these 二階(Nikai) faction backed pro-LDP independents running sometimes will hurt the electoral prospects of the official LDP candidate from other factions.

[jaichind]

https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20220409_1743051.html?DETAIL

It seems Abe backed candidate for the 2021 LDP Prez race 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) is having trouble rejoining the 安倍(Abe) faction that she quit in 2011 to back Abe over the faction leader that wanted to run for the 2012 LDP Prez race.    What is interesting is her main obstacle seems to be Abe.  Since 2021 it seems the Abe-Takaichi relationship has taken a dive.   Abe continues to view her as a chess piece to be deployed by Abe the puppetmaster when necessary while she increasingly views herself as an emerging leader of the LDP Far Right in her own right.

This just shows Abe was always just using Takaichi to block Kono last year in the 2021 LDP race and in the meantime Takaichi has become too big for Abe to control if she were to reenter the Abe faction.

[jaichind]

京都(Kyoto) governor election exit poll

Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       68%
JCP                                                   32%


JCP is very strong in 京都(Kyoto)  and controlled its governorship until 1978.  Starting in 1978 there has been a tradition of all non-JCP parties coming together to support a joint candidate.  This anti-JCP front has won every governor race ever since.

Just to give a sense of the power of incumbency in 2018 the race was an open race and the result was
Anti-JCP grand alliance                       56%
JCP                                                   44%

But in 2014 the anti-JCP grand alliance candidate was an incumbent and the result was
Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       69%
JCP                                                   31%

In 京都(Kyoto) governor elections it seems incumbancy adds around 12%-13% to your vote share.

[jaichind]

京都(Kyoto) governor election final results

Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       66.8%
JCP                                                   33.2%

[jaichind]

Even as the candidate list in 神奈川(Kanagawa) is moving in a disastrous direction for the Center-Left where CDP faces a total wipeout in a 5- member (just for this time) district, the development of the candidate list in 6- member 東京(Tokyo) is moving in a pro-CDP direction.  The LDP and CDP will both nominate two candidates, while KP and JCP will have a candidate each.  A LDP rebel, TPFA, JRP and RS candidate will also run.  CDP has superstar and former DP leader 蓮舫(Renho) as one of its candidates and she is expected to draw in votes from across the spectrum.  The LDP KP and JCP incumbent are also expected to make it.  So it is the battle of the rest for the last 2 seats.  On paper, the second LDP candidate should have the edge here but with a TPFA LDP rebel and JRP all in the fray to battle over the Center-Right vote it seems harder and harder to keep out the second CDP candidate from winning one of the last two seats.  In theory, RS could cut into the CDP vote but the candidate quality of the RS candidate does not seem that strong.  From the CDP point of view, the TPFA candidate will eat into the DPP vote which CDP had hoped to get but the same TPFA candidate will eat more into the JRP and LDP vote and most likely be a net positive for CDP as long as the RS candidate vote is under control which it seems.

So earlier this year it seems that 6- member 東京(Tokyo) district was going to be split Right-Left 4-2 just like in 2019 but now seems more likely it will be split Right-Left 3-3 like in 2016.  The TPFA JRP and the LDP rebel all insisting on getting in will likely split the LDP-JRP vote base letting in the second CDP candidate.

[jaichind]

In 宮城(Miyagi) long time DPJ and DPP incumbent MP 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) has been selected as the LDP candidate.  桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru)  has won here since 1998 as the DPJ candidate and last won in 2016 as the united opposition candidate against the LDP and has since joined DPP.  After the mainstream DPP decided to merge with CDP in 2020 (with a rump DPP remaining and is the current DPP) 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) quit DPP and have since drifted over to LDP.  The local LDP chapter is very hostile to 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) and came up with their own candidate.  The national LDP came up with a compromise of using a poll to see if 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) or the local 宮城(Miyagi) LDP chapter candidate (a LDP member of the prefecture assembly) is more popular.  The poll had 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) as more popular in the prefecture and is selected as the LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

In 2- member 京都(Kyoto) JRP officially nominates a candidate.  So it will be LDP CDP JCP and JRP fighting for 2 seats.  Historically LDP always wins a seat with CDP and JCP fighting for the second seat.  LDP-KP voters tend to tactically vote for CDP to beat JCP although incumbency counts for a lot.  In 2013 JCP beat out DPJ for the second seat due to JRP and YP splitting enough of the LDP-KP anti-JCP tactical vote while in 2016 the DP incumbent clearly beat out JCP to win the second seat.  In 2019 the JCP incumbent narrowly beat out the CDP candidate due to incumbency advantage and the socially conservative LDP-KP tactical voter actually preferred JCP over the LGBT activist CDP candidate (sort of like GOP voters most likely prefer the old Left Sanders over the woke Harris).  

In 2022 the JRP is back to run a candidate here and the LDP-KP voter (as well as the DPP voter) is put into a dilemma: If they vote for JRP then they potentially split the vote between CDP and JRP to let in JCP. 

[jaichind]

In 宮城(Miyagi) long time DPJ and DPP incumbent MP 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) has been selected as the LDP candidate.  桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru)  has won here since 1998 as the DPJ candidate and last won in 2016 as the united opposition candidate against the LDP and has since joined DPP.  After the mainstream DPP decided to merge with CDP in 2020 (with a rump DPP remaining and is the current DPP) 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) quit DPP and have since drifted over to LDP.  The local LDP chapter is very hostile to 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) and came up with their own candidate.  The national LDP came up with a compromise of using a poll to see if 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) or the local 宮城(Miyagi) LDP chapter candidate (a LDP member of the prefecture assembly) is more popular.  The poll had 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) as more popular in the prefecture and is selected as the LDP candidate.

It seems LDP's problems in 宮城(Miyagi)  are not over.  Now that the national LDP used a poll to get the prefecture LDP to back down and support the DPJ/DPP defector 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) another LDP rebellion emerges.  It seems LDP's 中野正志(Nakano Masashi) might run as an independent.  中野正志(Nakano Masashi) used to be a LDP Lower House MP back in the 2000s but defected to the JRP in 2012 when he was not renominated for the seat he lost in 2009.  He then became a JRP Upper House PR MP and after JRP split joined the far-right PJK and actually became the leader of PJK in 2017-2018 before merging PJK into the LDP in 2018.  He tried to run for re-election in 2019 either on the district or PR slate but was not able to get a ticket from the LDP.  Now that the LDP will go with DPJ/DPP defector 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) he sees a chance to come in as an indpendent and corner the anti-桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) LDP vote.

[jaichind]

Jiji PR poll

LDP   37.4%
KP      3.8%
PNHK  0.5%
JRP     8.6%
DPP    2.1%
CDP    7.0%
RS      1.7%
SDP    0.2%
JCP     2.4%

Disastrous numbers for a PR poll for non-LDP parties especially CDP.  If this was a party support poll I would view this as pretty standard but as a PR poll, this is very bad, even for JRP which is ahead of CDP.

[jaichind]

List of PR candidates so far



Different parties have different types of candidates.  CDP and DPP have candidates that represent different unions with CDP having more service/educational unions candidates while DPP has more industrial union candidates. 

LDP has candidates that represent different economic sectors with a heavy focus on the medical profession.  There are candidates that represent nurses, dentists, general practitioners, psychologists, emergency care, pharmacists etc etc.  There are also candidates that represent the military, hunters, postal service, construction, farmers etc etc.

JCP KP JRP SDP RS all have candidates that represent different regions.

Minor parties

PNHK - PNHK seems to have created a bunch of satellite proxy parties so their candidates are from these different proxy parties.  Mostly act as a protest party.
HRP - Based on Happy Science cult - policy position is social and foreign policy extreme right position - de facto protest party as they mostly push their anti-system position versus their extreme right position
JFP - Mostly de facto anti-Korean extreme right party
参政党 (SSP) - very new policy position not clear.  Seems mostly far-right with anti-PRC pro-animal rights and anti-JRP (not clear why) positions
新党くにもり (NPC) - based on the political group 頑張れ日本 (Good Luck Japan).  Seems to be a far-right LDP splinter mostly about the anti-Korean position domestically and anti-PRC position internationally.

The main problem for LDP and JRP is that with all these far-right minor parties running some disgruntled LDP voters will vote for these minor parties.  The good news for them is these same voters are more likely to vote for LDP or JRP in the district seats.  The counter to that conjecture of course is they might end up voting PNHK in the district seats.  Still many of the people that will vote for these far-right minor parties most likely will not vote and from the LDP and JRP point of view they rather these voters come out to vote where LDP and JRP might get their vote versus just staying home.

[jaichind]

RS leader and current Lower House PR MP 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) it seems will run in the 2022 Upper House elections, and resign his Lower House seat I assume.  It seems he can either run as a PR candidate (like in 2019) or run in 東京(Tokyo) or 大阪(Osaka) district seats.  I suspect he will run as a PR candidate since in both 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka) CDP and JCP will not back down and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) most likely will not be elected.

[jaichind]

RS leader and Lower House MP 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) has resigned his Lower House seat which means he is certain to run in the Upper House elections.

In the meantime, PNHK also put someone with exactly the same name "山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)" on their PR list.   PNHK has a track record of troll moves like this which usually does not seem to generate them any votes.

[jaichind]

https://nordot.app/888389711478226944

LDP election committee head came up with the goal of 19-21 PR seats for the upcoming Upper House elections.  LDP won 19 out of 48 in 2016 and now there are 50 PR seats 20 would be a reasonable target.  But with the JRP surge, it seems LDP keeping 19 PR seats could be difficult.  LDP must think that the JRP surge is coming at the expense of the opposition and with higher turnout KP and JCP seat count will suffer and for LDP to gain from.

[jaichind]

ANN PR poll

LDP    33.9 (-1.2)
KP       3.3 (-0.2)
JRP      7.3 (+0.6)
DPP     1.6 (-0.8 )
CDP     9.2 (+0.7)
RS       0.9 (-0.1)
SDP     0.7 (+0.2)
JCP      4.8 (-0.4)

CDP and JRP gain some ground.  Still a very good poll for LDP.  CDP should be polling in the teens at this stage and high teens/low twenties as we get close to the election.   If JRP wants to make a big breakthrough this year they should be polling in the low teens at this stage.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll

LDP  33.3(+2.1)
KP     5.6(+0.2)
PNHK 1.1(+0.3)
JRP   13.7(-4.1)
DPP   2.8(+0.5)
CDP  15.5(-3.6)
RS     1.8(+0.6)
SDP   1.2(+0.4)
JCP    7.9(+1.9)



CDP and JRP loses ground to everyone else

[jaichind]

It seems JRP and DPP formed a tactical deal for JRP not to run a candidate in 2- member 静岡(Shizuoka) so the pro-DPP incumbent (that won in a by-election last year) can win 1 out of the 2 seats (the LDP will win the other) over JCP and another opposition candidate (ex-DP turned rebel incumbent).  In return, DPP will not run a candidate in 2- member 京都(Kyoto) and support JRP in its 3-way CDP vs JCP vs JRP battle for the second seat (the first seat will be won by LDP.)

This is the first real formal deal between DPP and JRP.  DPP will most likely have some deals with CDP in other prefectures.

[jaichind]

Chart on DPJ splinters.

Not shown on the chart was that PLP (later called LP) split from DPJ in 2012 and in 2016 the non-Osaka stream of JIP (mostly ex-DPJ and ex-YP defectors to JRP) merged with DPJ to form DP.  Also, proto-RS joined LP in 2015.

On the chart, it shows how DP split into CDP and HP in 2017 with part of TPFA also joining HP.  Rump HP continued but mostly died.  The majority bloc of HP split to form DPP with LP joining it.  Then in 2019 LP joined DPP with RS splitting out from LP as it refused to join DPP.  The majority faction of DPP merged into CDP in 2020 but the minority faction continued.