Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll on PR vote

LDP    32(+1)
KP        3(+1)
PNHK    1(--)
JRP     15(+1)
DPP      4(-1)
CDP      8(-4)
RS        3(--)
SDP      1(+1)
JCP       5(+1)

Another disastrous poll result for CDP. 

JX polls seem to take into account that the vast majority of undecided/independents lean heavily against LDP with MSM polls tend not to take that into account.  Most MSM polls have similar results for all parties except for JRP where they range from something like 7% to 15%.  I suspect there is a significant number of LDP-JRP marginal voters that report their voting intentions differently to MSM polls.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval trending slowing up despite COVID-19 surge over the last few months.  The geopolitical crisis should have played a role in this.

[jaichind]

The by-election for the 石川(Ishikawa) Upper House seat is tomorrow.  Sitting LDP MP resigned earlier this year to run unsuccessfully for governor.  The race will be LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs PNHK.  Easy LDP victory is expected but vote share will be important.  If the LDP candidate can be held to below a high 50s vote share then it can be viewed as a victory for the opposition.

[jaichind]

The by-election for the 石川(Ishikawa) Upper House seat is tomorrow.  Sitting LDP MP resigned earlier this year to run unsuccessfully for governor.  The race will be LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs PNHK.  Easy LDP victory is expected but vote share will be important.  If the LDP candidate can be held to below a high 50s vote share then it can be viewed as a victory for the opposition.

NHK exit poll has a massive LDP landslide



I know I said that a reasonable baseline for LDP would be 58%-59% of the vote.  Then I realized that the LDP candidate is an incumbent PR candidate with deep roots in the prefecture.   Given that a reasonable LDP baseline would be something like 63%-64%.  The exit polls have the LDP candidate at around 69%.  Significant LDP overperformance and a very good sign for LDP going into the Summer Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election exit poll has a wapping 60% of the electorate as supporters of LDP.  JRP at 4% is very low given JRP's hope to surge here and displace CDP as the main opposition party to LDP.  I suspect a lot of LDP supporters are really LDP-JRP marginal voters.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election (82% of the vote counted)

LDP      67.7%  (backed by KP)
CDP      21.6%  (backed by SDP)
JCP         7.1%
PNHK      3.5%

Mostly matching exit polls.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election all counted

LDP      68.4%  (backed by KP)
CDP      21.6%  (backed by SDP)
JCP         6.6%
PNHK      3.4%

Big LDP victory by overperforming what one would expect.  What is worse for CDP is that LDP won 68.4% at the same time PNHK won 3.4%.

[jaichind]

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/japan-unveils-48-billion-package-115722381.html

"Japan unveils $48 billion package to ease rising price pain"

On the one hand Japan government wants inflation to give Japanese firms pricing power so they can jump start capital formation. On the other hand when it does come they try to mitigate inflation effects.   They should just do UBI. It would be more efficient than this. 

[jaichind]

So far JRP has already nominated candidates in 1- member districts in 宮城(Miyagi), 栃木(Tochigi), 富山(Toyama), 香川(Kagawa), and 長崎(Nagasaki).  More might be on the way.  This is the biggest JRP push since 2013.  Among these 5 seats,  宮城(Miyagi) and 長崎(Nagasaki) will be impactful.  In 宮城(Miyagi) LDP has nominated the old DP defector incumbent so the JRP is looking to win disgruntled LDP voters.  LDP should still have the edge here but the race will become more unpredictable.  長崎(Nagasaki) is an open seat that LDP should win but there are signs of grassroots rebellion against the LDP.  JRP being in the race will also make it more unpredictable.

[jaichind]

Asahi PR poll - change from a similar poll in April 2019




LDP    43 (--)
KP       5 (--)
JRP    17 (+11)
DPP     3 (--)
CDP   14 (-3)
RS       2 (-1)
SDP     1 (-1)
JCP      4 (-1)

The main change from 2019 seems to be that Center-Left and Left support has weakened and a good chunk of the anti-LDP independent vote has shifted from the Center-Left to JRP.

[jaichind]

JX poll for district seats for the Kinki region.

LDP is ahead in all 1- member districts 滋賀(Shiga),  奈良(Nara), 和歌山(Wakayama).  In 4- member 大阪(Osaka) the 2 JRP, 1 LDP, and 1 KP candidates are ahead.  In  2- member 京都(Kyoto) the LDP will win and the second seat is a 3-way tie between JRP CDP and JCP.  In 3- member 兵庫(Hyōgo) it is a 4-way tie between LDP KP JRP and CDP with JCP clearly behind.

Just like in 2016 and 2019 there is a clear path for CDP/DP and JCP to make a deal for CDP/DP to stand down in 大阪(Osaka) to give JCP a chance of winning the 4th seat and for JCP to stand down in 兵庫(Hyōgo) for DP/CDP to have a clear shot at winning a seat there.  The dynamics of the local CDP/DP and JCP chapters of these two prefectures make this impossible.

[jaichind]

JX poll of cabinet approval rating by prefecture


Kishida's home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima) has the highest approval followed by various rural LDP stronghold prefectures.   Fairly anti-LDP 北海道(Hokkaido) and 沖縄(Okinawa) have the lowest cabinet approval.

[jaichind]

JX poll on Kanto/Tokyo region district seats

LDP is well ahead in 1- member 栃木(Tochigi) and 群馬(Gunma) while 1- member 山梨(Yamanashi) is neck-to-neck between LDP and CDP incumbent.

In 4- member district 埼玉(Saitama) LDP KP and CDP are ahead with JRP pro-DPP independent incumbent and JCP are in a fight for the last seat.   This is a surprise.  I was sure that the pro-DPP independent was sure to win a seat with CDP and JCP fighting for the 4th seat.  It seems JRP is coming up strong and eating into the pro-DPP independent incumbent vote.

In 3- member 千葉(Chiba) 2 LDP and 1 CDP ahead.  A surprise to see JRP ahead of JCP in line to try to take one of these 3 seats.

In 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) (really 4- but the last seat is a by-election for the 2019 cycle) it is 1 of the LDP candidates ahead and the other LDP,  KP, JRP, CDP, JCP  in a 5-way tie to the remaining 4 seats with the second CDP candidate well behind.  It seems the CDP vote is not evenly split between its two candidates giving it a chance to win a seat.

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) LDP KP CDP (Renho) JCP ahead for 4 seats with the second LDP, second CDP, and JRP in a 3-way race for the 2 remaining seats.  The pro-DPP TPFA candidate has dropped behind the pack.  Again this is a surprise.  I was expecting the pro-DPP TPFA candidate to eat into the JRP vote but it seems JRP was not that badly hurt and has a good chance to win a seat.

[jaichind]

JX poll for the North

3- member 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP and CDP will one each with the second candidate of both parties fighting for the 3rd.

In 1- member 青森(Aomori) and 岩手(Iwate) the CDP incumbent are in neck-to-neck races.
In 1- member 山形(Yamagata) DPP incumbent should win re-election
In 1- member 宮城(Miyagi) DP incumbent-turned-defector to LDP will win re-election as LDP
In 1- member 秋田(Akita) LDP incumbent will win while in 1- member 福島(Fukushima) LDP will win with the DP incumbent defecting to LDP but was not nominated and will run as an independent and losing his bid for re-election.

[jaichind]

JX poll on South and Deep South

LDP is ahead in all 1-member districts except for 沖縄(Okinawa) where it is neck-to-neck between the Opposition incumbent and LDP (it seems mostly because JRP is backing LDP here.)  LDP is ahead in the old pro-SDP stronghold 大分(Ōita) where it is ahead of the DPP incumbent.

In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it will LDP with a large lead to win the first seat with the CDP-DPP jointed dependent winning the second seat over JCP as expected.  If JRP does not jump into the race this one is pretty much pre-ordained.  

In 3- member 福岡(Fukuoka) there is a JRP surge and there is a 4-way tie between LDP KP CDP and JRP for the 3 seats here.

[jaichind]

JX poll on Central Japan

LDP is ahead in all 1- member districts except for 新潟(Niigata) and 長野(Nagano) where it is neck-to-neck between the LDP and the CDP incumbents

In 2- member 静岡(Shizuoka) LDP will win one of the two seats with the pro-DPP incumbent (backed by JRP) (elected in a by-election), DP incumbent turned independent (most likely eventually backed by CDP) and JCP neck-to-neck for the third seat.   I would have thought the pro-DPP incumbent backed by JRP would have the edge to win the second seat but it seems to be a 3-way tie for the second seat.

In 4- member 愛知(Aichi), the LDP and CDP incumbents are ahead, but the KP and DPP incumbents are in a 4-way tie with JRP and JCP for the last 2 seats.  I find it hard to believe KP will not win so this is really a 3-way tie of the DPP incumbent, JRP, and JCP for the last seat.  It seems the JRP surge ate into the DPP vote which gives both the JRP and JCP a chance to win the seat from DPP.

[jaichind]

These JX polls are a complete disaster for CDP outside the North with the JRP eating into the CDP and DPP vote in urban and Southern areas.  The JCP is not that strong or else 2022 might turn into the 2013 landslide defeat of DPJ where JRP/YP ate into the DPJ vote from the Right and the JCP ate into the DPJ vote from the Left leading to a massive LDP-KP landslide and a complete collapse of DPJ.  As it is the JCP vote being weak and CDP-JCP marginal voters going to CDP will save a few seats for CDP in an election that seems to be a blowout defeat for CDP and a big surge for JRP.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202204300000941.html

There are rumors that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in the 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) district seat as opposed to the PR slate.  If so that would be the final nail in the coffin for the 2 CDP candidates running there.   In such a case the 2 LDP, 1 KP, and, 1 JRP candidate will win the first 4 seats, and a 4 way battle between the 2 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 RS candidates for the last seat with JCP and RS much more likely to win the last seat as opposed to the 2 CDP candidates.  One of the LDP candidates and the JRP candidate have a DPJ background from the 2000s and have the ability to eat into the non-LDP vote giving the Center-Right parties a clear edge here.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202204300000941.html

There are rumors that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in the 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) district seat as opposed to the PR slate.  If so that would be the final nail in the coffin for the 2 CDP candidates running there.   In such a case the 2 LDP, 1 KP, and, 1 JRP candidate will win the first 4 seats, and a 4 way battle between the 2 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 RS candidates for the last seat with JCP and RS much more likely to win the last seat as opposed to the 2 CDP candidates.  One of the LDP candidates and the JRP candidate have a DPJ background from the 2000s and have the ability to eat into the non-LDP vote giving the Center-Right parties a clear edge here.

Imagine being the biggest opposition party in Japan and not being able to elect a member in the third biggest prefecture in the country.
The absolute state of the Japanese CDP.

They did it to themselves by nominating 2 candidates and it seems it is too late for them to undo this mistake.   

This seems like a rerun of the 2013 Upper House Tokyo district.  Back then Tokyo was a 5- member district and the DPJ had 2 incumbents which they re-nominated.  During the campaign, it was clear that DPJ's position was so poor that there is a very good chance that both DPJ candidates would not make it into the top 5.  DPJ then withdrew one of the 2 candidates but that candidate did not want to lose face of being deselected just ran as an independent and took enough votes from the other DPJ candidate for him to lose.  Ironically this election also included 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).  The result was

LDP         18.9% (elected)
KP           14.2% (elected)
JCP          12.5% (elected)
Proto-RS  11.8%  (elected)  (山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) running as indpendent)
LDP         10.9%  (elected)
DPJ           9.8%   
JRP           7.3%
YP             5.7%
DPJ rebel   4.2%

Had the DPJ rebel stood down most likely the other DPJ incumbent would have beat out the LDP for the last seat.  JRP and YP also made the mistake of not putting up a joint candidate and missed out on taking out the second LDP winner.

If the CDP now withdraws one of its 2 candidates most likely that candidate would run anyway just to not lose face just like the DPJ in 2013 Tokyo.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220430/k00/00m/010/078000c

New rumor: RS 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) leader might contest 兵庫(Hyōgo)

I guess the next few days will be a game of guessing which marginal multimember urban prefecture will 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) contest from and takedown marginal CDP chances of winning a seat to zero.  I guess in theory he could also contest from 大阪(Osaka), 埼玉(Saitama), or even his original prefecture of Tokyo where he was elected in 2013.

[jaichind]

Historically backwater 3- 福岡(Fukuoka) district is getting a surge of candidates where every major party is coming out with a candidate.

In addition to LDP KP and CDP, JCP JRP DPP SDP RS are all running a candidate.  JFP and HRP are also running a candidate.  All these smaller parties running most likely cancel each other out the result is the same old boring LDP KP and CDP winning the top 3 spots.

[jaichind]

Historically backwater 3- 福岡(Fukuoka) district is getting a surge of candidates where every major party is coming out with a candidate.

In addition to LDP KP and CDP, JCP JRP DPP SDP RS are all running a candidate.  JFP and HRP are also running a candidate.  All these smaller parties running most likely cancel each other out the result is the same old boring LDP KP and CDP winning the top 3 spots.

The media is also pointing out that every party has a candidate in 福岡(Fukuoka).  This is true for decades in the large Northern urban prefectures but this is the first time 福岡(Fukuoka) has gotten the attention from all parties that it has gotten ergo the media is pointing it out.

[jaichind]

It seems clear that part of the JRP strategy this year is to target the women's vote.  Most novice candidates that have no experience that the JRP is nominated are women.  JRP seems to want to target the urban/suburban middle-class women this election cycle even more so than in previous years.  JRP seems to believe that this vote which has leaned CDP in the past is vulnerable for it to try to pick off.

[jaichind]

The next significant election before the Upper House elections will be the 新潟(Niigata) governor election on May 29th.  The pro-LDP incumbent is running for re-election and clearly has the edge.  The main opposition candidate is the head of a citizen action group and it seems that she will focus on an anti-nuclear power stance.  In 2016 the opposite defeated the pro-LDP candidate based on the nuclear power issue but with world energy prices surging it is clear this issue has lost its salience.  It is not clear which opposition parties (like CDP and JCP) will actually back the pro-opposition candidate.  DPP which is pro-nuclear power seems to be more likely to stay neutral or even back the pro-LDP candidate.  JRP might come in with a candidate but the JRP is anti-nuclear power and is much more likely to split the opposition vote if the main opposition candidate issue is going to be nuclear power.

[jaichind]

Former Tokyo governor 猪瀬 直樹(Inose Naoki) who had to resign in disgrace in 2013 due to a campaign finance scandal will run in the JRP PR slate.  This seems like a risky move for the JRP.  Clearly, he has a vote base in Tokyo, but it does add a stain on the JRP party image.